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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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@genghis - Lakini, what irks me is Kenyans believe the drivel... & actually campaign to enshrine rules/laws to get folks like us [trying to save a few pennies] to pay more! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2010 Posts: 335 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The ring fence [club effect] around Safaricom has holes. I use Airtel almost exclusively. Why? [I don't care whether Airtel loses money] Coz it is CHEAPER for me to call Airtel, Yu & Orange from Airtel than from Safaricom!!!
Since I make lots of calls I find I save a lot more using Airtel [BTW, all sms from Airtel are 1/- including Safaricom]...
My international calls from Airtel are also cheaper than Safaricom!
Orange's service/quality is spotty. I tried Yu but I found Airtel's 1/- deal very attractive especially as others joined Airtel [I find most firms now have an Orange [Telkom], Safaricom & Airtel line...
Bottomline: My calling costs are down 50-60% since Airtel came in!
Safaricom WILL lose revenues & profits:
1) My Airtel-Safaricom calls earn Safcon only 2.26 [incl tax] not 3/- [incl tax]
2) Firms/people with 2 SIMs [safcon + airtel] I only call on Airtel [1/- vs 3/- so zero for safcon]
3) My international calls + sms using safcon down to almost zero [Plus I pay only 3/- to call UK/USA/Canada/China/India vs old 20/- that safcon used to charge]
4) I found out that calling Uganda/Tanzania is also cheaper on Airtel [which has sister firms there] than Safaricom. BTW, if you call a Warid [Uganda] line from Yu Kenya, it is only 3/-!!!
So using me as an example... my spend [revenue] on Safaricom has dropped 95% for voice. Even if you consider off-net [Airtel to Safaricom] still down 80%. Yeah, no one said you shouldnt enjoy the cheap calls, the point is only 5% of safcom clients moved and this was expected...Fact that Safcom havent issued a profit warning tells you something about the revenues, fact that Airtel still made a loss despite getting 1 million subs tells you something, fact that Airtel is paying more to safcom for interconnect also speaks alot, Fact that Yu are not considering going to 3g tells you alot... fact that if Airtel dents safcom, Kenyas will be the loosers.... so enjoy the cheap rates and please do!!! while it lasts but remember there is nothing cheap everything comes at a cost, this could be a cost to your colleagues in the telco industry jobs to india, to techonology e.g. Yu has shelved advancement, cost of the govt and country at large.. ONLY 5%? REALLY? WHY? MPESA? LACK OF NUMBER PORTABILITY? Is number portability still on Bitange Ndemo's to do list? Should we expect Safcom to take a major hit in the near future because of this? the info on ndemo's ministry website is that the plan was to charge "those intending to move will be charged a one time fee of Sh1,000 and, in addition, to a maximum of one shilling above the normal tariffs offered by the operators". is still the plan? if so... our brokers @NSE should bring short selling to the table!!! "I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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LOL @jamani - Kenyans will gain from lower calling costs! 1) Airtel is outsourcing calling centers to Kenya/Uganda. We might end up with MORE jobs as Airtel's Anglo Africa operations are centered in Kenya. 2) 50% of Safaricom's dividends get repatriated to UK whereas Airtel is making a net investment INTO Kenya! 3) Erm, I will continue saving 50% of my OWN money! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:LOL @jamani - Kenyans will gain from lower calling costs! and the economy will loose in the long run, as they cry where are jobs..
1) Airtel is outsourcing calling centers to Kenya/Uganda. We might end up with MORE jobs as Airtel's Anglo Africa operations are centered in Kenya. And outsourcing major IT functions to IBM india while putting up a front office of touch services(watu wa mkono) in Kenya, the Data centre is being set up in India, DBAs,Unix and windows admins/server engineers are in India, the MSCs will also be transfered to india. what does this mean? killing local economy and talent.
2) 50% of Safaricom's dividends get repatriated to UK whereas Airtel is making a net investment INTO Kenya! I like the way you are onesided in looking at things will airtel keep any profits here, can airtel much what safcom has invested in this country?
3) Erm, I will continue saving 50% of my OWN money! Sure that and i will continue earning dividends from interconnect, data, Mpesa among others. Enjoy saving as i enjoy earning.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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@jamani - LOL... Good for you! I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn] Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-] Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year. So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/- I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you Sniff, sniff... I will cry over this while spending my savings while I support another (50%) Kenyan brand... Tusker... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you Sniff, sniff... I will cry over this while spending my savings while I support another (50%) Kenyan brand... Tusker... I bet you are already under the influence, thats why you dont get it. Its upto you sir no one cares if you make money or loose it in the drink. Ni shauri-yako! if you want to drink and pee your money its upto you
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you Sniff, sniff... I will cry over this while spending my savings while I support another (50%) Kenyan brand... Tusker... I bet you are already under the influence, thats why you dont get it. Its upto you sir no one cares if you make money or loose it in the drink. Ni shauri-yako! if you want to drink and pee your money its upto you I started drinking after 5pm. Even then to support jobs for Kenyans. You do your part with Safaricom. I will do my bit with EABL. Oh, and the women are looking good. Wonder if I should spend more of my savings on Trust? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you Sniff, sniff... I will cry over this while spending my savings while I support another (50%) Kenyan brand... Tusker... I bet you are already under the influence, thats why you dont get it. Its upto you sir no one cares if you make money or loose it in the drink. Ni shauri-yako! if you want to drink and pee your money its upto you I started drinking after 5pm. Even then to support jobs for Kenyans. You do your part with Safaricom. I will do my bit with EABL. Oh, and the women are looking good. Wonder if I should spend more of my savings on Trust? Its upto you Sir, you can even choose to save and not buy trust cds, just go live why spend 10 bob on trust? and you care about little savings....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@jamani - LOL... Good for you!
I will enjoy my savings [far more than any sort of dividend I would earn]
Safaricom dividend is 10cents/share. So for every 1/- I save, I need 10 Safaricom shares [45/-]
Now say I save 1,000/month [I like many Wazuans spend way more] = 12,000/year.
So I need 120,000 Safaricom shares = KES 500,000/-
I would rather invest the 500,000/- in the Savings Bond at 12%!!! Go ahead who stopped you? Ooh... OK... LOL... Lakini no Safaricom voice for me! Sawa its upto you, they dont miss you Sniff, sniff... I will cry over this while spending my savings while I support another (50%) Kenyan brand... Tusker... I bet you are already under the influence, thats why you dont get it. Its upto you sir no one cares if you make money or loose it in the drink. Ni shauri-yako! if you want to drink and pee your money its upto you I started drinking after 5pm. Even then to support jobs for Kenyans. You do your part with Safaricom. I will do my bit with EABL. Oh, and the women are looking good. Wonder if I should spend more of my savings on Trust? Its upto you Sir, you can even choose to save and not buy trust cd, just go live why spend 10 bob on trust? and you care about little savings.... I already have one in my wallet lakini her friend is looking good too. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/3/2010 Posts: 96
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Gents relax....the winner of the Telco wars or at least the main loser will become clear in the next 6 months or so...most likely there will be a newer equilibrium by Mar11...with Safcom still in the lead revenue wise but with a much smaller gap to the other players...most likely Yu will come out on top of Orange since they seem to be more adapted to the rough and tumble wars than the French high society gentlemen...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,765 Location: nairobi
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Papa Investor wrote:Gents relax....the winner of the Telco wars or at least the main loser will become clear in the next 6 months or so...most likely there will be a newer equilibrium by Mar11...with Safcom still in the lead revenue wise but with a much smaller gap to the other players...most likely Yu will come out on top of Orange since they seem to be more adapted to the rough and tumble wars than the French high society gentlemen... Jamani is a woman! Usimuite gent tafadhali!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Papa Investor wrote:Gents relax....the winner of the Telco wars or at least the main loser will become clear in the next 6 months or so...most likely there will be a newer equilibrium by Mar11...with Safcom still in the lead revenue wise but with a much smaller gap to the other players...most likely Yu will come out on top of Orange since they seem to be more adapted to the rough and tumble wars than the French high society gentlemen... Jamani is a woman! Usimuite gent tafadhali! Maybe I should stop drinking mid-week. So I will type pole pole. Orange is dead. Around my table, no-one has Orange. Even the mpango lines are either Safaricom, Airtel & one Yu. Goodnite. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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obiero wrote:Papa Investor wrote:Gents relax....the winner of the Telco wars or at least the main loser will become clear in the next 6 months or so...most likely there will be a newer equilibrium by Mar11...with Safcom still in the lead revenue wise but with a much smaller gap to the other players...most likely Yu will come out on top of Orange since they seem to be more adapted to the rough and tumble wars than the French high society gentlemen... Jamani is a woman! Usimuite gent tafadhali! @Obiero ooh! really Mr. Obiero? now you know me... sorry sir, I have cahoonas as you do.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/28/2006 Posts: 1,799
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Airtel are waiting to unleash another war at 50cts per minute after the expiry of feelanga free.... Now this will be the real test on safcom because they cant afford to remain on 3 bob and yet again if they reduce to even 2 bob the infrastructure will be in ICU... its a double edge sword for them.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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chemos wrote:Airtel are waiting to unleash another war at 50cts per minute after the expiry of feelanga free.... Now this will be the real test on safcom because they cant afford to remain on 3 bob and yet again if they reduce to even 2 bob the infrastructure will be in ICU... its a double edge sword for them. The marginal cost of minutes WITHIN the network must be very low e.g. 25 cents/minute. So for Airtel, they can keep 3/- across networks but still make money as long as you call WITHIN the network. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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chemos wrote:Airtel are waiting to unleash another war at 50cts per minute after the expiry of feelanga free.... Now this will be the real test on safcom because they cant afford to remain on 3 bob and yet again if they reduce to even 2 bob the infrastructure will be in ICU... its a double edge sword for them. If it happens for sure safcom will have to go outsourcing, means jobs to India
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