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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 12:05:10 PM
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Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Now Orange offers 1/- (on-net) phone calls... So where does that leave Safaricom?


With the numbers
For now but I see a slowdown in new accounts for Safaricom.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#82 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 3:53:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Now Orange offers 1/- (on-net) phone calls... So where does that leave Safaricom?


With the numbers
For now but I see a slowdown in new accounts for Safaricom.


True that, but we know where the majority and loyal high spenders on phone are and where migrant budget spenders are
bird_man
#83 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 4:35:33 PM
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The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
Aguytrying
#84 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 6:16:33 PM
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Nice insight. Funny to say watched. How are you watching them. Light note
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
PKoli
#85 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 7:01:44 PM
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bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!


I thought they are the ones buying the new iphone; the one of around 8k.
VituVingiSana
#86 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 7:44:45 PM
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PKoli wrote:
bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!


I thought they are the ones buying the new iphone; the one of around 8k.
That phone is great! Though the SLOOOWWW data package of Airtel is the cheapest but SLOOOWWW...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Much Know
#87 Posted : Monday, February 21, 2011 9:29:32 PM
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Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,554
bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!

So false
Meru Holiness
Jamani
#88 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:04:32 AM
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Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!


And thats the cream of population thats into IT and related tech things on net and they idle on facebook hence they need faster connections on thier phones... will they really be on a slow edge or 2G connection? go watch again!!
bird_man
#89 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:13:00 AM
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Relax guys.It was just an observation I made using a sample of 10 young people I know.Im not steadman and could be very wrong.Just my thoughts and observations.Make yours.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
VituVingiSana
#90 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 10:51:17 AM
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When Airtel unleashes their 3G... I will win coz either it will be as fast but cheaper than Safaricom OR Safaricom will drop their prices!

I love competition!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
propertyzote
#91 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 11:21:14 AM
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My take on this is they are highly likely issue profit warning. If you factor in the conditions which have since changed. Call rates initially were at Ksh14 then Ksh8 now at Ksh4/3 thats likely to course and effect. They focused on data which only accounts for 3.6M of there subscribers. Fast connectivity but expensive. They should take advantage on numbers to and reduce the rates. @vituvingiSana also waiting for airtel 3G!!
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selah
#92 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 11:24:20 AM
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Location: in kenya
bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!


I hav observed the same thing they are either on airtel or Yu...another interesting thing I have observed most low income earners are In airtel which means as this group make money airtel will grow with them.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Jamani
#93 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 11:34:50 AM
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Posts: 1,554
selah wrote:
bird_man wrote:
The interesting thing is that most guys I have watched below 23yrs are not on Safcom.It will come to bite them 5yrs from now!


I hav observed the same thing they are either on airtel or Yu...another interesting thing I have observed most low income earners are In airtel which means as this group make money airtel will grow with them.


Nice assumption but they might also migrate to safcom as they make money, status thing you know! (Maslow's law)
Mkimwa
#94 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 1:34:22 PM
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Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
Lets get some facts right:

FY 2010, Safcon had total revenue of 83bn, with 63.4bn out of voice.

HY 2011, Safcon had total revenue of 47bn, with revenue of 32.5bn. Naturally, as a result of reduced calling rates, we can reasonably expect the revenue from voice to half, thus maybe a revenue of 16-20bn from voice in H2 2011.

BUT: Data in H1 2011, was already up by 7bn, compared to H1 2010. If the same trend continues, then we could see increase in data revenues compensating for decrease in voice revenues.

My expectations:
Safaricom will match, or slightly better the 2010FY results in terms of revenue. There might be slightly reduced profits due to increase in costs, e.g. advertising, admin costs. Safcom will deliver flat results.
Genghis Khan
#95 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 9:25:08 AM
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Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Basically the Company is expected to feed the shaeholders

Wacha porojo wewe! its no where in the act for companies to feed its shareholders, its just that companies made it on thier own to add food after meetings to appease its shareholders and some go as far as giving umbrellas, calenders T-shirts etc, these are not in the act. it could be PR or marketing or something else but not in the act.
Thats the reason safcom decided not to have these but comply with the act for the annual general meeting as is stipulated.



@Ericsson... expected by whom? I don't blame you, my grand dad shares your opinion, thats why KCB had no choice but to keep feeding him!
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
Genghis Khan
#96 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 9:34:23 AM
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Why does Safaricom want to make supernormal profits from shafting Kenyans?


I think if they can get away with it they should... thats businessApplause . Getting away with it is the hard partd'oh! , that's why Bob and tens of senior managers are paid 7figure monthly salaries... in exchage for "supernormal profits" for shareholders... can't blame them for trying to keep their jobs + bonusesShame on you
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
VituVingiSana
#97 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 9:39:27 AM
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Genghis Khan wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Why does Safaricom want to make supernormal profits from shafting Kenyans?

I think if they can get away with it they should... thats businessApplause . Getting away with it is the hard partd'oh! , that's why Bob and tens of senior managers are paid 7figure monthly salaries... in exchage for "supernormal profits" for shareholders... can't blame them for trying to keep their jobs + bonusesShame on you
But the drivel they feed gullible Kenyans about jobs, expansion, etc! Bharti grew in India [& was able to pay $10bn to buy Airel Africa] using the 'slim' profits from the Indian market [where competition is far more intense than Kenya/Africa].
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Genghis Khan
#98 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 10:17:36 AM
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Joined: 8/5/2010
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Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Phone+price+wars+healthy+says+Raila+/-/1056/1109030/-/kghwyi/-/index.html

To quote the PM
Quote:
“If Airtel can afford to bring their prices down, Safaricom can also afford it. The time has come for Safaricom to face competition,” the PM stated.


Quote:
“They (safcom) have been used to making billions and billions of shillings in profits for years because it pays its workers peanuts,” he stated.


i think Agwambo is right... does safcom really want to be protected fron Airtel... they want GoK to sanction the monopolisation of telcoms after we've come this far?

Safcom does not pay less peanuts compared with other corporates in the country. it is true they have a long payroll with few large numbers at the top and many small ones at the bottom. Still it nothing compared with the examples below.

1. BAT senior managers salaries vs. factory workers.
2. Emilio's salary (2.0m)& Raila's salary(circa 1.5m) vs. City council (taxable), AP (taxable)

Safcom are doing better than most companies / organizations of their size with respect to HR issues. They have outsourced most low end HR jobs to kenyan juakali and SMEs ie. airtime vendors, marketing (advertising agents & promoters), mpesa dealers, infrastructure (development, supplies & maintenance).
The 2nd quote is not very smart. It is uncharacteristic of Raila to be lazy in his research.
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
VituVingiSana
#99 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 10:25:11 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Anyway, as I have always said... no-one owes you a job... If you feel under-paid or under-appreciated... QUIT...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Genghis Khan
#100 Posted : Wednesday, February 23, 2011 10:31:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Genghis Khan wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Why does Safaricom want to make supernormal profits from shafting Kenyans?

I think if they can get away with it they should... thats businessApplause . Getting away with it is the hard partd'oh! , that's why Bob and tens of senior managers are paid 7figure monthly salaries... in exchage for "supernormal profits" for shareholders... can't blame them for trying to keep their jobs + bonusesShame on you
But the drivel they feed gullible Kenyans about jobs, expansion, etc! Bharti grew in India [& was able to pay $10bn to buy Airel Africa] using the 'slim' profits from the Indian market [where competition is far more intense than Kenya/Africa].


@VVS If every one is as smart as you and me then it becomes a hard sell. But that's WELL-PAID-BOB'S headache and he should work for his bonus (and job)... i'm not worried about that. When he sees no one is listening he'll just change strategy {new products; restructuring to control overheads; mergers/acquisitions; etc} I'm sure he's smarter that our politicians and they seem to have learnt to process info and make (or take back) decisionsApplause .
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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