Even if the financial sector reports super results, this has already been priced in by the rejection of the NSE index at 4700pt level. Resistance in the short term is now between 4600 - 4700 zone, which happens to project a double top. The fudged inflation index is above 5% which is the CBK's upper limit, yet MPC lowered the CBR to 5.75% - quite senseless!? Global food inflation is picking up, oil inflation due to middle east civil unrest, possibility of a drought and political risks as we approach 2012 are presenting bullish barriers.

This yearly chart portrays a head and shoulders pattern which likely suggests that in coming weeks NSE will reach 4000 points if 4200 support does not hold. If 4000 support does not hold, it will be time to turn defensive and look for cheap attractive blue chip counters.
Personally I started getting uncomfortable by the lack of volume in the last quarter of 2010 as the market rallied to 4700.

Is this a prophecy of doom?? should we get worried??

Cde, you're right. Some companies were (some still are) grossly overvalued.

I think its easy to see how 3/4 of the banks will perform.
Barclays-flat than a pancake or even a drop.
StanChart-will do okay, but note T-bill rates have been heading downward so it'll have to do some proper lending
Equity-juu juu. I understand Ug subsidiary is due to break even
KCB- snooze zone

@Wa-ithaka, I disagree with you on BBK. Its Cumulative Q3 2010 results actually showed an increase of 20.42% growth in PAT relative to Q3 2009. This compares with 28.38% for KCB and 17.03% for Stanchart. If anything Stanchart will be the laggard amongst this peer group.

KCB tends to surprise in Q4 with excess NPLs (which I guess are forced on them by their Auditors), but it it would be unusual for BBK to surprise us that way. On the other hand, BBK and DTK were the only listed banks whose profits in Q3 (Jul-Sept)were lower than those for Q2 (Apr-Jun).

In the case of DTK, it was clear that they had a particularly good Q2 which was not expected to be repeated. In that sense BBK worries me, but I am banking on the gains from the sale of the custody business to SCBK to cushion any fall in Q4 vis-a-vis the first 3 quarters.

As for Equity, I am with you. I expect an acceleration in their profits in Q4 against the 51.47% growth in cumulative Q3 PAT growth. But the mother of the big banks should be Coop as it had grown 74.76%. Makes me wonder why the D**N thing is stuck at 20!

Of course, as many here have opined the results are already built into the price. Hence, I am reckoning the only price jumps that can be expected would be in the event of higher than expected or special dividends or declaration of bonus shares.

Let's just hope that will be enough impetus to drive it to the 30s

With a 30-40% increase in KCBs PAT FY2010, they will be able to maintain the eps of 1.8-2 bob of FY2009 even after the 33% increase in issued shares due to the Rights. A 2 bob eps at 30 bob is a p/e of 15, a far cry from the p/e of the co-ops n equitys of this world! I reitarate that I bet the house on KCB &Kengen.

hehe, I know but yes KENGEN! Btw ulikijia hii shillingi ki-mashifta ama?

hahaha. U've just proved that money never sleeps.

Mwanahisa-on Barc tutaona. I think it might be first to release. Was thinking of buying some for ze long long time. Lakini Keynes in the long run we are all dead. I might be dead before the share does any positive surprises. Will add to my overflowing Equity position.
Watch out also for NIC-good thangs.