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Realities of Forex Investment
qw25041985
#701 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:27:02 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
LOOK AT EUR/JPY : Heading Higher

Why it will head higher

The first technical indicator is the 50% retracement of the January rally. Dow Theory has a 50% retracement principle. Typically Dow Theory applies to larger time periods and also to the Dow Industrial Average versus the Dow Transportation index. This theory uses closes above 50% retracement level to confirm continued bullish rallies.

The second technical reason is three drives to a bottom. This pattern tries to identify a bottom by using Fibonacci levels to confirm different legs of each drive and thrust. January 27th is where the first drive down occurred. After stabilizing around the 115.50 area, the 50% retracement level confirmed the peak of our first thrust. The second drive down was confirmed with the 141.4% expansion level of the first thrust move. The peak of the second thrust was confirmed with a higher retracement at the 61.8% level. A potential target for the bottom of the pattern lies with the 127.2% expansion level of the second thrust at 110.46. A confirmed break above our dynamic resistance yellow line could confirm a continued rally.

The third reason is our 200 day simple moving average. Recently, the 200 day sma has provided strong resistance and support for the pair. If we have confluence with all three technical indicators, our 50% retracement of the bullish rally, the three drives to a bottom pattern and the 200 day simple moving average; we could have a strong bullish reversal. A close below this level and our dynamic supports lines would negate our bullish reversals
You will also note that the current down move is a BULL FLAG !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Image for illustration

http://www.actionforex.c...rs/fxsol/2011020812.gif
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
hisah
#702 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 1:56:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
AUD/CAD is setting up for a monthly sell opportunity. Since Nov 2010, it has been on a series of lower highs. Two bearish monthly candles engulfing the Dec 2010 bullish candle also confirm this setup. Weekly chart also confirms the lower highs series as well as the daily chart.
Short @market 1.0050, SL - 1.0150. TP - still working on the levels - undecided on weekly target or monthly target.

Those are 2 monthly trades for February - AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
The Merchant
#703 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:21:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
TRADE: BUY USD/CHF @ 0.9590
Limit & SL = +30 & -30
REASON: Ichimoku crossover above the clouds.

TIME OF TRADE: 2122H (NAIROBI TIME)

Pray



Ceinz
#704 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 6:33:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Great scalping opportunities on EUR/CHF pair, hope u guys are in the market.
“small step for man”
qw25041985
#705 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 7:15:31 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
AUD/USD has finally made up its mind . ....waiting for a break and close below that rising trendline datin back to august...we have heard very many false breakouts so be careful.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
The Merchant
#706 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 9:09:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
The Merchant wrote:
TRADE: BUY USD/CHF @ 0.9590
Limit & SL = +30 & -30
REASON: Ichimoku crossover above the clouds.

TIME OF TRADE: 2122H (NAIROBI TIME)

Pray




Limit hit at 30 pips.smile
The Merchant
#707 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 9:14:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
TRADE: BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3733
LIMIT & SL : +30 & -30
REASON:ICHIMOKU,MACD,
TIME OF TRADE 2114 - NBI TIME
qw25041985
#708 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 7:04:02 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Just entered an aud/usd short . @ 1.070 . Reason . Multiple tries to break the rising trendline datin back to august 2010. but was unable to close above it after closing below it ...i hope this works.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
Ceinz
#709 Posted : Thursday, February 10, 2011 10:23:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
qw25041985 wrote:
GBP/JPY all the way to 150.00

GBP/JPY has not closed above its 200-day sma in over a year. The pair has recently tested above this key level and looks set to establish a daily close above the 200-day sma which is currently around 132.10. A daily close above this sma would be bullish from a technical perspective. Additionally, there appears to be a potential inverse head and shoulders patter with neckline around the 133.00 area. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from August highs to December lows is just above that at around 133.10. If the pair can manage a close above this neckline, it suggests a move higher towards Nov. highs of around 134.20 initially and then towards the 135.00 level which is around the highs of Sept. and 78.6% fib level next. If the pair is unable to sustain a close above the 200-day sma, a correction lower is likely with the potential lower towards the 130.40/60 area where the 55 and 100-day sma’s converge which is also just above the 38.2% retracement level.

Please look at Image below !

http://www.actionforex.c...forexcom/2011020561.gif



True to this analysis, the pair closed above the 200-day sma on friday, and has since been on an uptrend, now at 133.93. Watch out for a retracement, and possibly an extension to the 150.00 level.
“small step for man”
qw25041985
#710 Posted : Friday, February 11, 2011 7:41:37 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
qw25041985 wrote:
Just entered an aud/usd short . @ 1.070 . Reason . Multiple tries to break the rising trendline datin back to august 2010. but was unable to close above it after closing below it ...i hope this works.


This trade went well smile .although allot of action is happening in the asian session .But so far so good up + 120 pips ..lets see if the bears can take it lower...

I entered usd/jpy long @ 82.00 target 84.30 . Reason U.S yield are hitting all time highs.U.S economy seems to be recovering.And University of Michigan Confidence report out today.Hope all these provide the needed catalyst.i Pray Pray Pray it works out

I am eyeing aud/cad and waiting for good set-up.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
qw25041985
#711 Posted : Friday, February 11, 2011 7:45:51 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Ceinz wrote:
qw25041985 wrote:
GBP/JPY all the way to 150.00

GBP/JPY has not closed above its 200-day sma in over a year. The pair has recently tested above this key level and looks set to establish a daily close above the 200-day sma which is currently around 132.10. A daily close above this sma would be bullish from a technical perspective. Additionally, there appears to be a potential inverse head and shoulders patter with neckline around the 133.00 area. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from August highs to December lows is just above that at around 133.10. If the pair can manage a close above this neckline, it suggests a move higher towards Nov. highs of around 134.20 initially and then towards the 135.00 level which is around the highs of Sept. and 78.6% fib level next. If the pair is unable to sustain a close above the 200-day sma, a correction lower is likely with the potential lower towards the 130.40/60 area where the 55 and 100-day sma’s converge which is also just above the 38.2% retracement level.

Please look at Image below !

http://www.actionforex.c...forexcom/2011020561.gif



True to this analysis, the pair closed above the 200-day sma on friday, and has since been on an uptrend, now at 133.93. Watch out for a retracement, and possibly an extension to the 150.00 level.


i totally agree.GBP pairs yesterday rocked after that BoE rate decision.
on matters e/u
this e/u ( euro/usd) chart is very intresting . its pointin e/u to 1.33 lows .having broken that rising bear flag.Alsonotethat GoldmanSachs gave a prediction of ther e/u hitting 1.5000 . You know as they say charts dnt lie . have a look :

http://www.actionforex.c.../forexcom/2011021081.gif
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
Ceinz
#712 Posted : Friday, February 11, 2011 9:59:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
@ Qw, Nice head and shoulder pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart. If the pair manages to convincing close below the neckline support at around 1.3570, there's a chance that the euro could go down all the way to 1.3400. However, if there are enough buyers EUR/USD could skyrocket past 1.3850.
Wait for confirmation before you bet your pips on this one.
“small step for man”
qw25041985
#713 Posted : Saturday, February 12, 2011 8:47:27 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
qw25041985 wrote:
qw25041985 wrote:
Just entered an aud/usd short . @ 1.070 . Reason . Multiple tries to break the rising trendline datin back to august 2010. but was unable to close above it after closing below it ...i hope this works.


This trade went well smile .although allot of action is happening in the asian session .But so far so good up + 120 pips ..lets see if the bears can take it lower...

I entered usd/jpy long @ 82.00 target 84.30 . Reason U.S yield are hitting all time highs.U.S economy seems to be recovering.And University of Michigan Confidence report out today.Hope all these provide the needed catalyst.i Pray Pray Pray it works out

I am eyeing aud/cad and waiting for good set-up.


so far so good on my usd/jpy long . though i expected it to rally allot say 70 pips but 40 pip profit isnt bad...

i plan to enter another short on e/u after confirmation of that 4 hr head and shoulder..

i love the markets right now and they are trending allot and not much of fake out and stophunts ...

Green pips to all of you traders..
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
Ceinz
#714 Posted : Saturday, February 12, 2011 10:50:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Euro Slips On Uncertainty, Even After Mubarak Exit

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro slipped against the dollar Friday, as initial relief over Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's resignation gave way to further questions about potential ripple effects in the Middle East and a renewed focus on the euro-zone's sovereign debt woes.

The dollar was broadly buoyed by encouraging U.S. data and some safe-harbor buying on uncertainty about Egypt. Fewer than 24 hours after defying domestic and international pressure to step down, Mubarak finally gave in to nearly three weeks of demonstrators protesting his three-decade autocratic rule.

In theory, the departure of Mubarak should have led to unwinding of safe-haven buying that has buttressed the dollar.

Instead, it provided an excuse for investors to look more closely at the woes that continue to bedevil the euro zone, which has yet to resolve the sovereign debt crisis.

"Still percolating underneath it all is the concern that all things are not good in the periphery," of the euro zone, said Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 foreign exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.

After bouncing up to around $1.3570 in the wake of Mubarak's resignation, the euro fell to new session lows below $1.3500.

The Egyptian president's resignation did not come as a "massive surprise" to currency traders, Ruskin said, noting there was "still an extraordinary amount of uncertainty when talking about the transition phase" from Mubarak's government to a possible democracy.

Late Friday, the euro was at $1.3560 from $1.3602 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y83.40 from Y83.22, while the euro was at Y113.04 from Y113.13. The U.K. pound was at $1.6002 from $1.6093. The dollar was at CHF0.9730 from CHF0.9692.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at about 78.412 from about 78.199.

The dollar was buoyed Friday by constructive U.S. data, analysts said. Meanwhile, the euro has been constrained by uncertainty about the European Central Bank's succession plans and a lack of resolution of the bloc's debt woes. Because of this, the burst of buying of the common currency proved fleeting.

The ECB's plans to replace current president Jean-Claude Trichet were thrown into doubt Friday, after the German government announced that Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber will leave his post on April 30.

Weber was widely expected to ascend to the ECB's top job, but his departure for "personal reasons" has left analysts wondering who will take his place--and whether that will alter the market's expectations that euro-zone interest rates will need to be raised sometime this year.

"After two days of intense speculation, there is finally clarity about Weber's central bank future, but no clarity at all about the next ECB presidency," said ING Bank analyst Carsten Brzeski. "The race for the next ECB presidency is now officially wide open."

Earlier in the session, data showed the U.S. trade gap widened in December, with the full-year trade deficit registering its biggest percentage increase in 10 years on the back of a record-high shortfall in trade with China and surging oil imports. Separately, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for mid-February edged up to 75.1, slightly better than the 75.0 expected by economists.

-By Bradley Davis, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2654; bradley.davis@dowjones.com
“small step for man”
fxtech
#715 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 8:17:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
Hi all,

I'm LONG AUDUSD@1.00420 T.P 1.0097 S.L 1.0000
LONG AUDCAD@ 0.9902 T.P 0.9960 S.L 0.9850

WAITING FOR LONG SETUP ON NZDUSD

Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
qw25041985
#716 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 8:46:54 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Asian session was up guyz Nikkei and Hang Seng jumped 0.8% each to 22991 and 10686, respectively.....risk is on .Seems Mubarak had really instilled cold fear in investors..and thus means the party is over for bears...Lower china CPI expected tomorrow go short on aud at ur own risk....i think i'll be long euro today...waiting now for london session...
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
The Merchant
#717 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 12:02:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
The Merchant wrote:
TRADE: BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3733
LIMIT & SL : +30 & -30
REASON:ICHIMOKU,MACD,
TIME OF TRADE 2114 - NBI TIME

Was stopped out at -30 pipsSad
REASON:I preempted my indicators and got in too soon before an actual confirmation.
MOVING FORWARD: No more stunts. Ill continue trading the normal sober way with proper confirmation form my indicators.
More trades coming soon.smile
protege
#718 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 2:58:40 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 2/12/2011
Posts: 1
am new in forex,anyone out there ready to take me through it? i have read all there is to read but i need advice on which brokers to use and also take me through the trading process coz there many guyz out there ready to skim you off your hard earned money,any pointers al appreciate!smile
Ceinz
#719 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 3:33:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
protege wrote:
am new in forex,anyone out there ready to take me through it? i have read all there is to read but i need advice on which brokers to use and also take me through the trading process coz there many guyz out there ready to skim you off your hard earned money,any pointers al appreciate!smile


1) After you read through this entire thread most of ur questions will be answered-choice of broker,trading strategies etc. 2) Never trade with more money than u are prepared to lose 3) Capital Management, Capital Management, Capital Management.
“small step for man”
qw25041985
#720 Posted : Monday, February 14, 2011 4:57:36 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
The Merchant wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
TRADE: BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3733
LIMIT & SL : +30 & -30
REASON:ICHIMOKU,MACD,
TIME OF TRADE 2114 - NBI TIME

Was stopped out at -30 pipsSad
REASON:I preempted my indicators and got in too soon before an actual confirmation.
MOVING FORWARD: No more stunts. Ill continue trading the normal sober way with proper confirmation form my indicators.
More trades coming soon.smile


went short the euro ....when i saw it couldn't take out asian high and took out the low quite easily i know this was a short.....a break of 1.3447 necline (of the 4hr H&S) will spell disaster for the euro.next support lies at 1.3000..since we already reached todays adr i called it quits...nice day today
hope all of u traders are green w/ pips.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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