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East African Cables U Turn...
maina20
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 10:44:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 249
Location: nairobi
Is there any prospects for U turn to the North for this counter,in short term?
..desire to succeed is always fighting with fear of failure..
2012
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 11:01:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Only if they release better results which I doubt. With the Chinese in town and the recent increase on row material which resulted in Cables increasing their products by 80%, I honestly would keep off this counter. But who knows you could have a gem here, I just can't see it.

BBI will solve it
:)
guru267
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 11:11:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
maina20 wrote:
Is there any prospects for U turn to the North for this counter,in short term?


there are other counters to look at in the NSE other than this
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Liv
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 12:05:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
@Maina20,
I recently bought substantial number of this share recently... but mine may not be very short term (should keep them for at least 1 year). My thought process was as follows:

1) For the last several months price has been around sh 16.00 just slightly above the lowest for the last 12 months which is sh 15.00. This was after they made huge losses caused by write-offs of losses in Tanzania & other subsidiaries. Such write-offs are unlikely to be repeated in the near future given the change in their business model. so there is a likelihood this price can go north especially if they start reporting profits again.

2) One of their Major customers could be KPLC. KPLC has cash now after the rights issue was oversubscribed. What do they want to do with the money?.... repairs of distribution networks to ensure transmission losses are minimised. Is there a likelihood that EACBL could benefit from the KPLC cash? If this happens this share might turn northwards.

3) Growth of the economy expected. Last time there was high GDP growth... there was high prospects for this share.

4) The Chinese imports will continue to affect their business. But I think those people who have importing things from China are also changing their business models..... I have imported things from China. In most cases you pay for the stocks usually high quantities (to enjoy lower prices)and bring them to Kenya and wait for customers or start using slowly. This means you take a huge risks in stocks. Many businesses are trying to avoid this risk and they would rather buy what they need and use and turn the cash rather than hold so much stocks.

5) Transcentury Group... this is a strong group. They are still investing. I guess they cannot just allow this company to stay a low value company.

maina20
#5 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 4:01:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 249
Location: nairobi
@liv, Thanks for info, i will consider long term especially after having bought substantial stocks at 95bob...coz any sale will mean a big ....say 5years
..desire to succeed is always fighting with fear of failure..
2012
#6 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 5:26:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
maina20 wrote:
@liv, Thanks for info, i will consider long term especially after having bought substantial stocks at 95bob...coz any sale will mean a big ....say 5years


Seriously, as guru said why not consider other counters which are more predictable. I would get out of cables yesterday - especially with the prospects in other counters at this time. But who's to say...

BBI will solve it
:)
bartum
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 8:48:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
maina20 wrote:
@liv, Thanks for info, i will consider long term especially after having bought substantial stocks at 95bob...coz any sale will mean a big ....say 5years

you bought after the split. Sorry sir thougt
Liv
#8 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 11:41:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
@main20,
I hope you decided to buy some.
Sober
#9 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:02:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
before i checked the market this morning, i didnt have even the slightest emotion on this counter..and i still dont have...
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
selah
#10 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:23:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
This is interesting gaining about 26% in a day..... Weired,...or is it the bonus shares n the dividend?
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
kazikwisha
#11 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:41:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 48
i believe it the dividends and the possibility of a pay day in march just makes it more interesting
hapa saa hii leo
kenmac
#12 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:01:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
does the + or - 10% rule still apply at the NSE?......25% must be a world record
......Ecclesiastes
Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:05:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I thought 10 percentage was the most a share could gain in a day. Ppl against daily market watch, imagine missing out on a chance to sell today, shares bought at 16. Coz who knows how long this upward swing will last. Daily market watch pays.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:06:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
kenmac wrote:
does the + or - 10% rule still apply at the NSE?......25% must be a world record


There is (was) a material announcement relating to EAC, hence the waiver of the 10% rule. BTW, 25% change is not exactly a world record. There are quite a few exchanges around the world with no limit down/up.
mlennyma
#15 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:09:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
When i was in trouble you gave me all the comfort and stood by me,now let me reward you...up 25% na bado
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:16:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mlennyma wrote:
When i was in trouble you gave me all the comfort and stood by me,now let me reward you...up 25% na bado


Hope you have sold some today. The depth of the bids does not exactly fill me with confidence. I am anticipating a drop in the price tomorrow, once the initial excitement wears off.

But remember, I am (was) a buyer below Kshs 18.
Liv
#17 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:28:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Get some insights.... the Capital reserves have grown from Ksh 1.6 bln in 2009 to 2.1 Bln in 2010...i.e. ksh 586 mln. Part of this is from revaluation surplus and the rest from 2010 profits.

mlennyma
#18 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:38:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
The devil is not as black as he is painted.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ephy
#19 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 3:10:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2009
Posts: 19
This is a fantastic,FANTASTIC share to hold going forward. Long term though..it could hit a high of 50 by end of 2012.
Reasons :- a)They made a profit despite the challenges of YR2010,esp with regards to EAC TZ debts & LME prices that hit >9200 meaning demand for cables is big.
e)tc-transcentury bought a holding % of a Zambian Mining Company with aim to acquire copper steadily at a cheaper price.
f)Their re-entry into the data market with new partners besides nexans.Thats a big growth area.
b)Upgrade of their plant means a wider range of products,at a shorter time (efficiency).Big new market here in MV/HV products
c)Expansion of their distributor network in kenya increasing visibility & awareness. Opening the new distributor in Nakuru soon.
d)Export market expansion esp.DRC and S.Sudan.
See what everyone has seen,but think what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
Agra
#20 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 3:58:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/22/2007
Posts: 96
Location: Agra, India
Liv wrote:
@Maina20,
I recently bought substantial number of this share recently... but mine may not be very short term (should keep them for at least 1 year). My thought process was as follows:

1) For the last several months price has been around sh 16.00 just slightly above the lowest for the last 12 months which is sh 15.00. This was after they made huge losses caused by write-offs of losses in Tanzania & other subsidiaries. Such write-offs are unlikely to be repeated in the near future given the change in their business model. so there is a likelihood this price can go north especially if they start reporting profits again.

2) One of their Major customers could be KPLC. KPLC has cash now after the rights issue was oversubscribed. What do they want to do with the money?.... repairs of distribution networks to ensure transmission losses are minimised. Is there a likelihood that EACBL could benefit from the KPLC cash? If this happens this share might turn northwards.

3) Growth of the economy expected. Last time there was high GDP growth... there was high prospects for this share.

4) The Chinese imports will continue to affect their business. But I think those people who have importing things from China are also changing their business models..... I have imported things from China. In most cases you pay for the stocks usually high quantities (to enjoy lower prices)and bring them to Kenya and wait for customers or start using slowly. This means you take a huge risks in stocks. Many businesses are trying to avoid this risk and they would rather buy what they need and use and turn the cash rather than hold so much stocks.

5) Transcentury Group... this is a strong group. They are still investing. I guess they cannot just allow this company to stay a low value company.


Liv you were on point especial No.5
It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
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