@ All
I tend to agree with @ Kizee1. 12% is TOO low for 30 years.
If you look at the latest 10 year bond dated 31/1/2011, the coupon was 9.307%. However the yield was higher at 9.683%.
Interesting fact was that bids were 17,694 Billion. However CBK only accepted 1,086 Billion. That is only just over 6% of bids !!!
Why. I think investors have seen that the government is hungry for local funds. The investors sense this and putting in higher bids.
If you look at the 91/ 182/364/ trend, yields have been going up since Oct. 2010.
I dont see this trend changing any time soon.
Also dont forget that in 2008, 182 day bills were paying about 9%
It IMO that the 30 year bond will have a lot of bids, but CBK will only accept a very little proportion. Unless it is in dire needs of funds.
Which ever way it goes the coupon is 12%, but the actual yield will be much higher - maybe 14%.
I think in a few years, we may see 2 year bonds giving 9% yields.
My 2 cents - though I manage a few clients who invest with CBK.