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Standard Group: Worth a Contrarian Play?
the deal
#1 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 6:50:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
http://www.corporatekeny...-profit-up-139-per.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

I expect a further acceleration in the 2H compared to the 1H due to the fact that the Kenyan economy grew 6.1% in 3Q...ALSO compare to

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D
qw25041985
#2 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 7:39:07 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
ask @ the deal .lol . he's good w/ such plays.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
the deal
#3 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 8:17:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@QW buddy why dont join me on this ride...i will sell some KQ and put some cheddar here...that KQ has gotten on my nerves...with 2012 around the corner this guys will make a lot cash from paid up AD´s...Liquidity is an issue but its also a blessing in disguise...
the deal
#4 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 9:39:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Investragy
#5 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 5:26:08 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/6/2011
Posts: 6
[quote=the deal]http://www.corporatekenya.info/2010/08/standard-group-h1-profit-up-139-per.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

I expect a further acceleration in the 2H compared to the 1H due to the fact that the Kenyan economy grew 6.1% in 3Q...ALSO compare to

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D[/quote]


Hmmm... we havent done solid research on any of the media house, however you are right that SM has serious liquidity issues. At the same time, NM has tons of cash under the mattress, and to me all that cash sitting around scares me. Look at their cash spent on investing activities... close to nada percent-wise of total cash posistion... me not like it.

Question: do you own NM? I would hold on any buying activity related to the media houses, their full year earnings are around the corner and I would use that as a barometer to either go long or not.

As for 2012 ad spending, I would not bank on that as a driver to go long on SM, as both media houses will get ad spending, but mostly on a short term basis and I dont see that as a significant boost to earnings.

Take a loook at this research... http://www.investragy.com/content.php?postid=86

Second Q: why do you want to sell KQ? I would hold KQ for now, I see a lot of potential ahead.

****Just our thoughts!
the deal
#6 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 8:46:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@investragy eish what name...lol..On matters KQ...oil at 100$/barrel aint the same as oil at 84$/barrel...i see lawsuits on the way too...strikes etc...too much risk i say but still a good counter...my foray into SGL is informed by
1. Increased dividend 2. Probably a bonus on the cards 3. Regional expansion 4. Their diversifying their earnings base i.e Radio Maisha 5. Economy on a growth trajectory and Price wars. I dont own NMG but its a good income stock
You could give me a spot on your website i would write for you.
Investragy
#7 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:17:26 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/6/2011
Posts: 6
the deal wrote:
@investragy eish what name...lol..On matters KQ...oil at 100$/barrel aint the same as oil at 84$/barrel...i see lawsuits on the way too...strikes etc...too much risk i say but still a good counter...my foray into SGL is informed by
1. Increased dividend 2. Probably a bonus on the cards 3. Regional expansion 4. Their diversifying their earnings base i.e Radio Maisha 5. Economy on a growth trajectory and Price wars. I dont own NMG but its a good income stock
You could give me a spot on your website i would write for you.



I see you know how to sell yourself... lol! INVESTRAGY is a fantastic name my friend, if you frequent the site, you will soon get used to the name. Anyway, hmmm increased dividend potential?...their outlook on a final 2010 dividend was not solid enough, it sounded week and I am less optimistic given their cash position and the aggressive growth plans they have undertaken, but we will see!

Otherwise, I think SGL is a good LONG term buy. Isnt there a cut off date to be eligible for the dividend? Hurry up and buy.... and HOLD! Remember good returns in stock investment is realized long term... smile

As for becoming an Investragy team member, we are definitely going to be taking in talent within the next few months. We are trying a different strategy for Kenyan market and definitely looking to expand aggressively. Our approach is one that is less on verbiage but heavy on fundamentals.

Hit us up at admin@investragy.com
Investragy
#8 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:23:29 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/6/2011
Posts: 6
the deal wrote:
@investragy eish what name...lol..On matters KQ...oil at 100$/barrel aint the same as oil at 84$/barrel...i see lawsuits on the way too...strikes etc...too much risk i say but still a good counter...my foray into SGL is informed by
1. Increased dividend 2. Probably a bonus on the cards 3. Regional expansion 4. Their diversifying their earnings base i.e Radio Maisha 5. Economy on a growth trajectory and Price wars. I dont own NMG but its a good income stock
You could give me a spot on your website i would write for you.




AND on KQ, oil at $100/barrel... wow, hmm probably not soon. The unrest in Egypt will be settled soon, I think, and I dont see any major dominoes effect to the rest of the middle east. In fact, we will be seeing a downward trend in crude prices. What strikes/law suits for KQ?

Cheers!
the deal
#9 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:27:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Investragy wrote:
the deal wrote:
@investragy eish what name...lol..On matters KQ...oil at 100$/barrel aint the same as oil at 84$/barrel...i see lawsuits on the way too...strikes etc...too much risk i say but still a good counter...my foray into SGL is informed by
1. Increased dividend 2. Probably a bonus on the cards 3. Regional expansion 4. Their diversifying their earnings base i.e Radio Maisha 5. Economy on a growth trajectory and Price wars. I dont own NMG but its a good income stock
You could give me a spot on your website i would write for you.



I see you know how to sell yourself... lol! INVESTRAGY is a fantastic name my friend, if you frequent the site, you will soon get used to the name. Anyway, hmmm increased dividend potential?...their outlook on a final 2010 dividend was not solid enough, it sounded week and I am less optimistic given their cash position and the aggressive growth plans they have undertaken, but we will see!

Otherwise, I think SGL is a good LONG term buy. Isnt there a cut off date to be eligible for the dividend? Hurry up and buy.... and HOLD! Remember good returns in stock investment is realized long term... smile

As for becoming an Investragy team member, we are definitely going to be taking in talent within the next few months. We are trying a different strategy for Kenyan market and definitely looking to expand aggressively. Our approach is one that is less on verbiage but heavy on fundamentals.

Hit us up at admin@investragy.com

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly well the time to get in is now...by the time they announce it will be too late...i dont like chasing stocks...i rather be in when others are chasing the bus...i will hit you up...im a contrarian investor i buy the neglected but with potential and wait for them to come into play.
the deal
#10 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 9:32:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Investragy wrote:
the deal wrote:
@investragy eish what name...lol..On matters KQ...oil at 100$/barrel aint the same as oil at 84$/barrel...i see lawsuits on the way too...strikes etc...too much risk i say but still a good counter...my foray into SGL is informed by
1. Increased dividend 2. Probably a bonus on the cards 3. Regional expansion 4. Their diversifying their earnings base i.e Radio Maisha 5. Economy on a growth trajectory and Price wars. I dont own NMG but its a good income stock
You could give me a spot on your website i would write for you.




AND on KQ, oil at $100/barrel... wow, hmm probably not soon. The unrest in Egypt will be settled soon, I think, and I dont see any major dominoes effect to the rest of the middle east. In fact, we will be seeing a downward trend in crude prices. What strikes/law suits for KQ?

Cheers!


The strike remains unsolved..Naikuni is just pushing the issue aside...lawsuits from the likes of Fly540 apparently KQ is practising unfair competition on the Mombasa route...well lets see if oil goes back to 74$/barrel...smile
msimon
#11 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 2:08:28 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Investragy wrote:
[quote=the deal]http://www.corporatekenya.info/2010/08/standard-group-h1-profit-up-139-per.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

I expect a further acceleration in the 2H compared to the 1H due to the fact that the Kenyan economy grew 6.1% in 3Q...ALSO compare to

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D[/quote]


Hmmm... we havent done solid research on any of the media house, however you are right that SM has serious liquidity issues. At the same time, NM has tons of cash under the mattress, and to me all that cash sitting around scares me. Look at their cash spent on investing activities... close to nada percent-wise of total cash posistion... me not like it.

Question: do you own NM? I would hold on any buying activity related to the media houses, their full year earnings are around the corner and I would use that as a barometer to either go long or not.

As for 2012 ad spending, I would not bank on that as a driver to go long on SM, as both media houses will get ad spending, but mostly on a short term basis and I dont see that as a significant boost to earnings.

Take a loook at this research... http://www.investragy.com/content.php?postid=86

Second Q: why do you want to sell KQ? I would hold KQ for now, I see a lot of potential ahead.

****Just our thoughts!


You know, we can expect media houses to shine in the next 18 months. We like NMG most, we think it has a good position in the market and the fact that they have a large war chest we can expect more acquistions as they head out of East Africa and into the rest of Africa. the only catch is the price that you pay. You see at 170, you are probably going to compound your money at 12-15% over the next 3-5 years. The catch is how much lower can you buy at. The near term catalyst for this stock is the fact that we are seeing more election fever. Look at Uganda for example, the monitor,NTV and Kfm that expect a jump in profits from the on going splash of cash by the politicians. The same wave will be in kenya in a few months time. These are all extra ordinary events in the normal business cycle. We need not to forget that NMG has historically grown its earning by almost 22% over the last 10yrs and by 15% in the last 5 years. This is a good growth stock.Only problem is that its selling at 19x 2010 earnings. But if you could get it at PEs of 12 or less, it would be a perfect defensive stock in your portfolio. But, if you consider the cash on the balance sheet, then this stock would be selling for about 155-150/-. Now if you use this as the estimate, (which is what you are actually buying the share for),by the 2010 eps, you get a PE in the range of 17 which is still expensive, but alot cheaper than the 19x. Thats my take on the media.
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