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Realities of Forex Investment
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Ceinz
#691 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 9:31:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Trades entered: short EUR/GBP @ 0.8434(Mkt), SL 0.8465, TP 0.8350. Long GBP/JPY @ 132.64 (Mkt), SL 132.3, TP 133.5, short EUR/AUD @ 1.3407 (Mkt), SL 1.3441, TP 1.3300.

Watching Keenly AUD/USD, USD/CHF & EUR/CHF.
“small step for man”
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The Merchant
#692 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 10:33:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
[quote=qw25041985]If you trade S&P 500 then you know that its highly collerated with the 10 YR U.S yields and they are about to reverse.There are just TOOOOOOOO many indicators pointing to a serious reversal ( i mean SERIOUS)on the S&P 500. and this is definitely bad news for risk appetite.@ hisha. This must be good news to you. lol!

have a look at the image for illustsration

http://chart.ly/uploads/..._khtcejg.png?1296951045






on other bad news for euro longs. the weekly chart bel
Iow shows a very clear head and shoulders pattern.The left shoulder just stopped alittle bit short of the 200 sma. Very very bearish.
Look at the image below to get the illustration


http://chart.ly/uploads/..._s929op6.png?1296998233[/quote]

I agree. Thats definitely a head and SHOULDERS FORMATION. gOOD FOR THE SHORTS BAD FOR THE LONGS.
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Ceinz
#693 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 12:20:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Ceinz wrote:
Trades entered: short EUR/GBP @ 0.8434(Mkt), SL 0.8465, TP 0.8350. Long GBP/JPY @ 132.64 (Mkt), SL 132.3, TP 133.5, short EUR/AUD @ 1.3407 (Mkt), SL 1.3441, TP 1.3300.

Watching Keenly AUD/USD, USD/CHF & EUR/CHF.


GBP/GPY trade exited @ 132.98, might re-enter a long trade on the pair.
“small step for man”
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Ceinz
#694 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 1:05:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
EUR/AUD trade exited @ 1.3422, EUR/GBP trade also exited @ 0.8421. Reasons: Euro gradually turning bullish, and some FAs: Sentix investor confidence(12.30) and German Factory Orders (14.00), I'l be busy , dont have to time to watch over the trades, I like watching over my trades.
“small step for man”
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qw25041985
#695 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 1:07:43 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
euro shld correct . its just tooooooooo oversold on the hrly chart.i have draw fibos on my charts and atleast it shld rally to the 32.8 level..
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Ceinz
#696 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 5:00:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Re-entered my EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP shorts.
“small step for man”
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hisah
#697 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 8:40:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Weekly short on AUD/NZD @1.3150,TP1 - 1.2850, TP2 - open, SL - 1.33. I have revised the SL as earlier indicated back in Jan. This will be one of my monthly trades since this pair has failed thrice to clear 1.32 in Oct 2010, last month and now progressing in Feb. I will treat the 1.35 level reached in Dec 2010 as a blow-off top as experienced during a final rally. However the NZD/USD looks more bearish than AUD/USD on the monthly charts.

EUR/USD weekly chart turning bearish - next support 1.3470 since 1.3530 has already been broken intraday. Though oversold, the structure is beginning to turn bearish. The opposite applies to USD/CHF.
If GBP/USD can clear 1.63 with conviction, shorting EUR/GBP will be very profitable with a move down to 0.8180 as the 1st target.

@QW - I'm still looking at all the US markets with amusement and 'amazement'. They're soooo Sept/Oct 2007... I've also noticed the DAX (Germany) is also overstretched and the only euro-zone market with these characteristics. Currently Dow Jones RSI reads 77 and still aiming for the heavens, but the weekly overbought stochs are now turning down - divergence! Same weekly divergence as seen on Dow appears on S&P500 with RSI at 71. Nasdaq, turning bearish both weekly stochs and RSI which is at 70?! Some people will be left holding monkeys soon...
I'll still keep on looking for shorts in these overstretched markets until I get a bullish signal after a large correction, which is light years away with such extremely bullish weekly indicators.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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qw25041985
#698 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 8:45:33 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
USD pairs shld start rocking anytime .And by rocking i mean sky rocketing.Notice on the below chart that the rising trendline has been of support 3 consecutive times.Very bullish.And there's no much pressure on the trendline currently as evident by the low range candle.This shld put more pressure on euro to go lower and usd/jpy , usd/chf and rest to rally.

Here's the image

http://chart.ly/uploads/h2j5haw.png




The below diagram is a summary of the COT ( Commitment of Traders) report.Latest.notice a whole bunch of traders are short euro .How about we play this a contrarian way.?????Just a thought.
Look Here !

http://chart.ly/uploads/xjndj7q.png
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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hisah
#699 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 8:59:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@QW - I'm also watching the USD index forming that bullish hammer. As for the COTs report if you look at the quarterly report the number of traders short the $ is extreme. The current chart you've posted also points to the same $ selling extreme. I have also noticed something that I had not checked for a while. Too many CAD bulls after the Aussie. I'll start looking for CAD shorts too. The TSX (Canada) also looks like the Dow. Maybe I'll start with USD/CAD or GBP/CAD buy look out.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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qw25041985
#700 Posted : Monday, February 07, 2011 10:23:56 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Another case for eur/gbp selling.and y i believe it will go down.The potential range pattern highlighted is still in play and the recent break below .8490 supports the bear case.

have a look at the image below

http://www.innerfx.com/w...ily-chart-2-06-2011.png




NZD/USD . Breakout in the horizon


Have a look at the chart first.

http://www.innerfx.com/w...ily-chart-2-06-2011.png


That resistance point at .7800 is strong, indeed. Although the Australian dollar has gained against the US dollar in the last days, the NZ dollar didn’t follow the same path. The correlation between the AUD and NZD remains high, around 90% on the long term basis, they decoupled (temporarily) on short-term basis, as the AUD surged on hawkish statement from the RBA last week while the NZD declined on worst than expected Unemployment (6.8% Vs. 6.5% expected).
As shown in the Image below

http://www.innerfx.com/w...D-daily-correlation.png


GBPUSD heading higher.BoE to have the final verdict.

Resistance at 1.6300 which I compared to a magnet was tested on Thursday, when the GBP reached a session high at 1.6275, before reversing. Support at 1.6030 (January’s top) is still intact and if it holds, there’s a good chance to break above last year highs.

Imagery for illustration.

http://www.innerfx.com/w...ily-chart-2-06-2011.png

Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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