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Could Safaricom issue a profit warning?
miser
#1 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:18:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2008
Posts: 124
Just wondering when!

"A near halving of call costs in the third quarter of last year caused a steep decline in consumer spending on telecommunication, pointing to a looming slowdown of profits growth across the sector....The CCK’s data shows that Telkom Kenya, Airtel and Yu may have finally broken what was informally known as the ‘ring-fence’ advantage that the market leader had on consumers"

Alafu si huyu Mufaransa asema matope tu!Tafadhali do not improve and you will be left alone Mr.C.E.O to calling your relas with your stringlike telephony!!!WaKubuka ile mikembe mbili na uzi katikati katika somo la Physics ama ni fisikia???

“Consumers who are currently enjoying the fruits of the price wars may very soon start feeling the pain of under-investment in quality improvement(because)more than halving of calling rates means the operators have lost at least 50 per cent of the revenues...laying the ground for guarded spending on infrastructure and product development".Says Mr Mikhael Ghossein, the Telkom Kenya chief executive.
bartum
#2 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:49:26 PM
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Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
how is all this related to saf profit warning
selah
#3 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 3:58:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
As long as safaricom is still controlling 70% of voice and 92.2% data price warning will come but not this early...with all the promotion airtel managed to get 1M new subscribers against about half a million for safaricom ....Imagine that.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
For Sport
#4 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 4:05:44 PM
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Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
someone wake up up when the price gets to 2. otherwise, let me sleep
Jamani
#5 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 4:09:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
miser wrote:
Just wondering when!

"A near halving of call costs in the third quarter of last year caused a steep decline in consumer spending on telecommunication, pointing to a looming slowdown of profits growth across the sector....The CCK’s data shows that Telkom Kenya, Airtel and Yu may have finally broken what was informally known as the ‘ring-fence’ advantage that the market leader had on consumers"

Alafu si huyu Mufaransa asema matope tu!Tafadhali do not improve and you will be left alone Mr.C.E.O to calling your relas with your stringlike telephony!!!WaKubuka ile mikembe mbili na uzi katikati katika somo la Physics ama ni fisikia???

“Consumers who are currently enjoying the fruits of the price wars may very soon start feeling the pain of under-investment in quality improvement(because)more than halving of calling rates means the operators have lost at least 50 per cent of the revenues...laying the ground for guarded spending on infrastructure and product development".Says Mr Mikhael Ghossein, the Telkom Kenya chief executive.


Miser, I doubt the profit warning will come anytime now. Read the report in the papers without bias and you will see the effect is kidogo sana (upwards or downwards) infact it leaves one wondering the minds at airtel.They did not achieve what they wanted and are seriously contributing to the profit margins of safcom through interconnect while they make a loss....
CCK says the ring is broken well lets wait till the promotion is over then we shall for sure know if it is.
It will take abit of time to bring safcom to its knees not with one promotion.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 5:07:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
The ring fence [club effect] around Safaricom has holes. I use Airtel almost exclusively. Why? [I don't care whether Airtel loses money] Coz it is CHEAPER for me to call Airtel, Yu & Orange from Airtel than from Safaricom!!!

Since I make lots of calls I find I save a lot more using Airtel [BTW, all sms from Airtel are 1/- including Safaricom]...

My international calls from Airtel are also cheaper than Safaricom!

Orange's service/quality is spotty. I tried Yu but I found Airtel's 1/- deal very attractive especially as others joined Airtel [I find most firms now have an Orange [Telkom], Safaricom & Airtel line...

Bottomline: My calling costs are down 50-60% since Airtel came in!

Safaricom WILL lose revenues & profits:

1) My Airtel-Safaricom calls earn Safcon only 2.26 [incl tax] not 3/- [incl tax]
2) Firms/people with 2 SIMs [safcon + airtel] I only call on Airtel [1/- vs 3/- so zero for safcon]
3) My international calls + sms using safcon down to almost zero [Plus I pay only 3/- to call UK/USA/Canada/China/India vs old 20/- that safcon used to charge]
4) I found out that calling Uganda/Tanzania is also cheaper on Airtel [which has sister firms there] than Safaricom. BTW, if you call a Warid [Uganda] line from Yu Kenya, it is only 3/-!!!

So using me as an example... my spend [revenue] on Safaricom has dropped 95% for voice. Even if you consider off-net [Airtel to Safaricom] still down 80%.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 5:16:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
On data... I used to spend ZERO on Airtel. Too slow but I do spend a little coz they have a cheap bundle on my phone.

I have INCREASED my spend on data on Safaricom AFTER they reduced the prices. I am on the lookout for other cheaper BUT quality options. This is not Airtel 'taking' from Safaricom but additional spend.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#8 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 6:58:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
The ring fence [club effect] around Safaricom has holes. I use Airtel almost exclusively. Why? [I don't care whether Airtel loses money] Coz it is CHEAPER for me to call Airtel, Yu & Orange from Airtel than from Safaricom!!!

Since I make lots of calls I find I save a lot more using Airtel [BTW, all sms from Airtel are 1/- including Safaricom]...

My international calls from Airtel are also cheaper than Safaricom!

Orange's service/quality is spotty. I tried Yu but I found Airtel's 1/- deal very attractive especially as others joined Airtel [I find most firms now have an Orange [Telkom], Safaricom & Airtel line...

Bottomline: My calling costs are down 50-60% since Airtel came in!

Safaricom WILL lose revenues & profits:

1) My Airtel-Safaricom calls earn Safcon only 2.26 [incl tax] not 3/- [incl tax]
2) Firms/people with 2 SIMs [safcon + airtel] I only call on Airtel [1/- vs 3/- so zero for safcon]
3) My international calls + sms using safcon down to almost zero [Plus I pay only 3/- to call UK/USA/Canada/China/India vs old 20/- that safcon used to charge]
4) I found out that calling Uganda/Tanzania is also cheaper on Airtel [which has sister firms there] than Safaricom. BTW, if you call a Warid [Uganda] line from Yu Kenya, it is only 3/-!!!

So using me as an example... my spend [revenue] on Safaricom has dropped 95% for voice. Even if you consider off-net [Airtel to Safaricom] still down 80%.


Yeah, no one said you shouldnt enjoy the cheap calls, the point is only 5% of safcom clients moved and this was expected...
Fact that Safcom havent issued a profit warning tells you something about the revenues, fact that Airtel still made a loss despite getting 1 million subs tells you something, fact that Airtel is paying more to safcom for interconnect also speaks alot, Fact that Yu are not considering going to 3g tells you alot... fact that if Airtel dents safcom, Kenyas will be the loosers.... so enjoy the cheap rates and please do!!! while it lasts but remember there is nothing cheap everything comes at a cost, this could be a cost to your colleagues in the telco industry jobs to india, to techonology e.g. Yu has shelved advancement, cost of the govt and country at large..
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:12:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@Jamani - Safcon will remain #1 [IMHO] for the next few years regardless of Airtel's efforts. Nevertheless, it will lose its extreme dominance if Airtel [& YU] can keep up the pressure.

BTW, no jobs were outsourced to India. That is a lie peddled by SafCon & its fan club aka shareholders! I read the reports. The outsourcing firm is Mara of Uganda [we are all EAC members. Uganda is a very important export market for Kenya. We should give a little too.]

Safaricom's best paid employee(s) are FOREIGN. Bob is NOT Kenyan! [Well, neither is Meza but sorta hypocritical when Bob cries about losing much lower-paying Kenyan jobs]

As for Yu. That is THEIR business strategy [2G vs 3G]. They do not want [or have the muscle] to compete against SAFCON... unlike Airtel! Thanks to Airtel we will see a huge drop in 3G costs in 2Q 2011 after they launch 3G!
I will be happy to vuka IF Airtel gives me CHEAPER & BETTER deal on 3G...

Where is the 'loss' for Kenyans? [Except safcon shareholders]

1) Lower calling rates = lower repatriation of profits to UK by vodaphone
2) Losses by Airtel means net inflow of FDI to support the local business
3) Airtel 3G means NET investment IN Kenya. New towers, base stations, leases for towers, new HQ, more Kenyan jobs!
4) Lower calling rates = increased spending power to Kenyans to buy ugali or invest in safcon! d'oh!
5) Airtel Money (Zap) is cheaper than M-Pesa [I know coz I use it]. I can pay KPLC for FREE whereas M-Pesa charges me!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#10 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:26:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Jamani - Safcon will remain #1 [IMHO] for the next few years regardless of Airtel's efforts. Nevertheless, it will lose its extreme dominance if Airtel [& YU] can keep up the pressure.Ok
BTW, no jobs were outsourced to India. That is a lie peddled by SafCon & its fan club aka shareholders! I read the reports. The outsourcing firm is Mara of Uganda [we are all EAC members. Uganda is a very important export market for Kenya. We should give a little too.] Please check out their HQ at Parkside

Safaricom's best paid employee(s) are FOREIGN. Bob is NOT Kenyan! [Well, neither is Meza but sorta hypocritical when Bob cries about Kenyan jobs] Ok

As for Yu. That is THEIR business strategy. They do not want or have the muscle to compete against SAFCON... not Airtel! Thanks to Airtel we will see a huge drop in 3G costs! I will be happy to vuka IF Airtel gives me CHEAPER & BETTER 3G...They were planning to get to 3g they just stopped due to ROI

Where is the 'loss' for Kenyans? Taxes, Jobs, Closure, technological advancements, among others [Except safcon shareholders]

1) Lower calling rates = lower repatriation of profits to UK by vodaphone and lower taxes, lower dividents, could lead to little or no technological advancement meaning we shall remain behind as the rest of the world advances

2) Losses by Airtel means net inflow of FDI to support the local business could translate to loss of investment hitting the govt and country hard

3) Airtel 3G means NET investment IN Kenya. New towers, base stations, leases for towers, new HQ, more Kenyan jobs!No new towers will be built for only 3g, they will utilise what they have nothing its just addition of equipment not tower

4) Lower calling rates = more communications = increased spending power to Kenyans Ok

5) Airtel Money (Zap) is cheaper than M-Pesa [I know coz I use it]. I can pay KPLC for FREE whereas M-Pesa charges me! Ok

VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:38:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@jamani - Sawa you win! Let's ban Airtel & Yu... back to 25/- per minute calls so we can have 'technological advancement' 99.99% of Kenyans can't afford!

I could refute the points above but PLEASE use safaricom to help poor Bob get his bonus! After all he needs his $1mn+ salary...

On the 'taxes'... Sigh... BULLSHIT... There is NO 'loss' of taxes! Taxes are NOT a revenue generating activity! I will spend my 'savings' on other goods & services thereby creating additional economic activity = taxes for GoK

Finally:

1) Are you a safcon shareholder?
2) Are you a safcon employee?
3) Are you a govt employee?
4) Are you a safcon related contractor/employee?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
bird_man
#12 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:41:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
Ive observed something interesting.Those of you with campus kids . . . .how many of them are on Safcom?My own observation makes me imagine that there is a new generation of users thats coming up.These guys wont be Safcom customers.Maybe Airtel and Yu see this.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:45:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
bird_man wrote:
Ive observed something interesting.Those of you with campus kids . . . .how many of them are on Safcom?My own observation makes me imagine that there is a new generation of users thats coming up.These guys wont be Safcom customers.Maybe Airtel and Yu see this.

Very interesting point. The current base is already established not 'new'... Sort of voting in NEP in 2002 when they thought dan moi was still running for president! All they knew was kanu so they voted for the party they knew since 1970s = kanu!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#14 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:48:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
@jamani - Sawa you win! Let's ban Airtel & Yu... back to 25/- per minute calls so we can have 'technological advancement' 99.99% of Kenyans can't afford! Its not an issue of me winning i just want the best for all of us and our country am not competing with you

I could refute the points above but PLEASE use safaricom to help poor Bob get his bonus! After all he needs his $1mn+ salary... Well i will not answer to that, i guess you are annoyed
On the 'taxes'... Sigh... BULLSHIT... There is NO 'loss' of taxes! Taxes are NOT a revenue generating activity! I will spend my 'savings' on other goods & services thereby creating additional economic activity = taxes for GoK well no need of being abusive or rather using abusive language, its an assumption that you will spend on other things
Finally:

1) Are you a safcom shareholder? its not important what i am
2) Are you a safcom employee? No am not even in the country
3) Are you a govt employee? as above
4) Are you a safcom related contractor/employee? NO


Dont get annoyed just enjoy the cheap calls atleast you are saving no hard feelings
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 7:58:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
On Taxes??? Don't get me started! But since you did...

I am very pissed at how taxes are (mis)used... I pay all my taxes but I am not happy when I drive my 8 year old car while I see (new) mercs with GK plates zooming past me oblivious that fast speeds = more petrol = my taxes

We should use India as an example where the local [ugly but cheaper] cars are used by government employees. They probably cost a fraction of the price/cost of the mercs! Plus they can be repaired everywhere! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindustan_Ambassador

LOL... Ok, I would not want to be seen in one but I am self-employed not a GoK employee!

So saying GoK will collect less tax coz of lower calling prices...! The bastards should be SAVING money not paying themselves KES 12mn + [untaxed] benefits annually!!!

@jamani Wait!!! You do not live in Kenya yet are so concerned about how/why Airtel saves Kenyans money? d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#16 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 8:13:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
VituVingiSana wrote:
On Taxes??? Don't get me started! But since you did...

I am very pissed at how taxes are (mis)used... I pay all my taxes but I am not happy when I drive my 8 year old car while I see (new) mercs with GK plates zooming past me oblivious that fast speeds = more petrol = my taxes I agree with you on this but we should look for a solution to ensure its properly used

We should use India as an example where the local [ugly but cheaper] cars are used by government employees. They probably cost a fraction of the price/cost of the mercs! Plus they can be repaired everywhere! I beg to differ with you on this we dont have to be that cheap we just need to focus, get visionary leaders and invest wisely in our country those old things will cost us even more than the mercs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindustan_Ambassador

LOL... Ok, I would not want to be seen in one but I am self-employed not a GoK employee!

So saying GoK will collect less tax coz of lower calling prices...! The bastards should be SAVING money not paying themselves KES 12mn + [untaxed] benefits annually!!! Your language is putting me off, anyway its for kenyans to make good decisions and elect credible leaders not tribes men

Wait!!! You do not live in Kenya yet are so concerned about how/why Airtel saves ME money? d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
I do live in Kenya, after every 5 weeks am in Kenya
Ericsson
#17 Posted : Sunday, February 06, 2011 12:54:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
Safaricom will not issue a profit warning because of the effect it will be have on the share price.
They will rather keep quiet and announce in May the results may include the dent of the effect of the price wars
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
awando
#18 Posted : Sunday, February 06, 2011 6:09:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/4/2011
Posts: 8
Location: kenya
SafCom is an intriguing stock. Based on our research and analysis, the stock has performed dismally over the last three years. For the three year period, 2008 - 2010, this counter returned an inflation adjusted annualized return of -16% http://investragy.com/content.php?postid=60 and 2010 inflation adjusted return of -2%. What a return on your investment!!

At www.investragy.com, we dont currently own this counter. The company has continued to see earnings growth y/y and has a significant market share. Our view is that SafCom is a growth company NOT a growth stock as they continue to reinvest all the cash/pay no dividends to stay competitive in a very fiercely competitive market place.

With 2010 annual earnings coming up in April, it will be interesting to see if there is any earnings growth given how this market has been competitive over the last few moths. The tariff rate cuts etc should definitely see a dent in any revenue growth.

Happy investing folks!!


www.investragy.com
www.twitter.com/investragy
www.facebook.com/investragycapital
Investragy Capital - Portfolio Strategies for East Africa.
Jamani
#19 Posted : Sunday, February 06, 2011 6:24:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Ericsson wrote:
Safaricom will not issue a profit warning because of the effect it will be have on the share price.
They will rather keep quiet and announce in May the results may include the dent of the effect of the price wars


Maybe you are right on this but just to ask, is it not a CMA requirement for a listed firm to issue a profit warning, when it misses its target or its dented?
Ericsson
#20 Posted : Sunday, February 06, 2011 6:49:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,778
Location: NAIROBI
Some animals are more equal than others so Safaricom can decide whether or not to issue a profit warning.It
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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