hisah wrote:My least expectation when the turmoil fizzles out is an immediate 30% upside. Then the parabolic begins with another 30-40%. So I expect a 50-70% upside on this ETF by end of 2011.
That is optimistic. If only down 30% then going back to 'par' immediately is very tough. There is long-term damage to the Egyptian economy. The social problems will NOT go away just coz mubarak has left!
- Huge population. High unemployment. And they breed like rats [For those who are offended by the last statement. Use high-quality condoms]
- Unless the USA/UK/Europe/Arabs give them huge amounts of aid, the economy will remain weak as social spending will take precedence over economic spending
- Tourism is DEAD at the moment. See how Kenya suffered during/after PEV 2008. Took us a while to get back on track. They will suffer losses for at least 1 year.
BTW, the revolt is better for Egypt in the LONG-TERM but I do not see the gains you claim by 31 Dec 2011.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett