AUDUSD, short trade entered @ market 1.0087, SL 1.0120 take profit 1.0000.

SL changed to 1.0084.

SL hit (40pips loss on 20K position) on the AUD/USD and above 1.0150 is a new monthly high. Gold has also pushed up big intraday, the aussie gains with it too. Still looking for shorts despite them failing this week on aussie. GBP/USD short order still intact, but I wonder if it will be triggered after the euro's cliff dive intraday.

EUR/USD collapses by more than 200pips intraday after dovish comments by ECB - expected. Below 1.3530 will confirm EURUSD is now due for a bear run for some weeks. I expect the NFP news tomorrow to inflict the damage especially if USD/CHF can hold and close above 0.9470. I find it hard to believe the pair climbed to the 1.38 handle just coz of China eurobond buying. I still see the EUR/USD heading south to that July 2010 gap at 1.25 due to the bogus eurozone debt issues. Not that the US is any better anyway.
My Dow short is stopped out with a 105 pip loss, but Nasdaq short is still holding though slightly negative. Will the NFP cause the impending Dow correction - the rally above 11400 is overextended with non-supportive econ fundamentals. Such weekly overbought technical indicators lead to sizable corrections e.g. a 3 - 5% down day!

Welcome back fxtech, Abt the long trade and ur Tp which i think is high for today (usd pairs will trend over a narrow range, atleast before the NFP figures). Keep a keen watch and be ready to exit before the news.

GBP/JPY all the way to 150.00

GBP/JPY has not closed above its 200-day sma in over a year. The pair has recently tested above this key level and looks set to establish a daily close above the 200-day sma which is currently around 132.10. A daily close above this sma would be bullish from a technical perspective. Additionally, there appears to be a potential inverse head and shoulders patter with neckline around the 133.00 area. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from August highs to December lows is just above that at around 133.10. If the pair can manage a close above this neckline, it suggests a move higher towards Nov. highs of around 134.20 initially and then towards the 135.00 level which is around the highs of Sept. and 78.6% fib level next. If the pair is unable to sustain a close above the 200-day sma, a correction lower is likely with the potential lower towards the 130.40/60 area where the 55 and 100-day sma’s converge which is also just above the 38.2% retracement level.

Please look at Image below !

http://www.actionforex.c...forexcom/2011020561.gif








EUR/CHF Short-Term Bullish Trend In Long-Term Bearish Trend . This is a trade worth taking !Data is as close of friday 05 2010 .

EUR/CHF – Price action on EUR/CHF (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Wednesday has continued the uptrend that has been in place since the beginning of the year. But over the long-term, this uptrend can thus far simply be considered a minor bullish correction within the context of a significant downtrend that goes back for several years, at least since late 2007. Currently, the short-term uptrend could extend further before potentially turning back down to continue the long-term entrenched downtrend. Key short-term upside resistance resides around the 1.3070 price region. In the event of a breakout above this level, an important upside resistance target resides around the 1.3300 price region, which is not only a significantly tested support/resistance level, but also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last major bearish run. To the downside, key support resides around the 1.2800 price region, a breakdown below which could potentially begin targeting the all-time low around 1.2400, hit at the very end of last year.

Refer to Image for illustartion

http://www.actionforex.c...rs/fxsol/2011020312.gif








EURGBP to hit NEW lows .After Trichet dismissed rate hikes. This is a NO-Brainer trade.

The story from the 2-year yield differentials also illustrates the GBP-positive outlook against euro. German 2-year govt yields minus their UK counterpart have fallen back below zero at -0.07%. The daily correlation between the GE-UK 2-year spread and EURGBP stands at 0.61. Considering markets pricing for at least one BoE rate hike before year-end, the fundamental dynamics appear to be in synch with the technical picture. Lower highs in EURGBP as well as December and January rebounds, which failed to regain the November highs should likely keep the bulls out of the fray. Expect a prelim target of 0.8350, followed by 0.8150 (Aug 2010).On the daily chart you'll note that the pair has fallen of the rising trendline dating back to August.This is very BEARISH.A short shld be in order for you.

look at the chart below for clarification and illustration.Most importantly note the colleration between the two charts.This couldn't be any better to enter the trade

http://chart.ly/uploads/6a9ptdf.png







THIS IS THE NAIL IN THE COFFIN FOR S&P 500

S&P500 & Dow-30 Flirt OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS

Weekly S&P500 Relative Strength Index shows the highest overbought levels since September 2007. Last week was the S&P 500 fell for the 2nd straight week after it had SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEKLY GAINS. Those gains were the longest winning streak since 2007. IS THIS another sign of an impending top. NOTICE in the chart how there was a LAG in the S&P following the RSI decline.

look at the image .An imminent toppin is in the making.

http://chart.ly/uploads/9rq9njw.png

Trades entered: short EUR/GBP @ 0.8434(Mkt), SL 0.8465, TP 0.8350. Long GBP/JPY @ 132.64 (Mkt), SL 132.3, TP 133.5, short EUR/AUD @ 1.3407 (Mkt), SL 1.3441, TP 1.3300.

Watching Keenly AUD/USD, USD/CHF & EUR/CHF.

GBP/GPY trade exited @ 132.98, might re-enter a long trade on the pair.

euro shld correct . its just tooooooooo oversold on the hrly chart.i have draw fibos on my charts and atleast it shld rally to the 32.8 level..

Weekly short on AUD/NZD @1.3150,TP1 - 1.2850, TP2 - open, SL - 1.33. I have revised the SL as earlier indicated back in Jan. This will be one of my monthly trades since this pair has failed thrice to clear 1.32 in Oct 2010, last month and now progressing in Feb. I will treat the 1.35 level reached in Dec 2010 as a blow-off top as experienced during a final rally. However the NZD/USD looks more bearish than AUD/USD on the monthly charts.

EUR/USD weekly chart turning bearish - next support 1.3470 since 1.3530 has already been broken intraday. Though oversold, the structure is beginning to turn bearish. The opposite applies to USD/CHF.
If GBP/USD can clear 1.63 with conviction, shorting EUR/GBP will be very profitable with a move down to 0.8180 as the 1st target.

@QW - I'm still looking at all the US markets with amusement and 'amazement'. They're soooo Sept/Oct 2007... I've also noticed the DAX (Germany) is also overstretched and the only euro-zone market with these characteristics. Currently Dow Jones RSI reads 77 and still aiming for the heavens, but the weekly overbought stochs are now turning down - divergence! Same weekly divergence as seen on Dow appears on S&P500 with RSI at 71. Nasdaq, turning bearish both weekly stochs and RSI which is at 70?! Some people will be left holding monkeys soon...
I'll still keep on looking for shorts in these overstretched markets until I get a bullish signal after a large correction, which is light years away with such extremely bullish weekly indicators.

@QW - I'm also watching the USD index forming that bullish hammer. As for the COTs report if you look at the quarterly report the number of traders short the $ is extreme. The current chart you've posted also points to the same $ selling extreme. I have also noticed something that I had not checked for a while. Too many CAD bulls after the Aussie. I'll start looking for CAD shorts too. The TSX (Canada) also looks like the Dow. Maybe I'll start with USD/CAD or GBP/CAD buy look out.