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Realities of Forex Investment
qw25041985
#661 Posted : Wednesday, January 26, 2011 8:11:30 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Yesterday gbp pairs fell like rocks coz of he negative gdp that was reported for u.k @ -0.5 actually.

have a look at the image below . it shows an ascending wedge on the e/u . I believe eur/usd will be topping anytime soon..

http://www.actionforex.c...rs/cmsfx/2011012461.gif

the fall that i had called for on aud/usd just isnt comming.the pair is sweetly consolidating in a very well defined bear flag ( look at ur 4 hr chart) and after the break-out it will prove that aud/usd has topped and will bring 0.93 level in focus after the break-out.i still maintain my short/bearish position on the pair.

We all know Friday is the big day for us fx trader as huge numbers will be coming from the u.s

@ 22:15 local (Today) USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision .

On friday is the big one

1. USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A)

2. USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A)

make sure u arent trading then coz u can get wippd of coz of the high volatility !
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
hisah
#662 Posted : Wednesday, January 26, 2011 5:25:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Short order @1.3760 for EUR/USD, SL - 1.3820, TP - 1.3630. I hope the FOMC meeting announcement today helps the EUR/USD to spike up to that level. The hourly support trend line has been broken setting a short opportunity.
The Dow having touch 12000 and so overbought on the weekly and daily time frames is inviting bears.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
qw25041985
#663 Posted : Wednesday, January 26, 2011 7:04:05 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
i have been callin eu short from i dnt know when.....that ascending wedge lookd very nice and since it has broken it shld be touching 1.29 level in the coming weeks.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
fxtech
#664 Posted : Thursday, January 27, 2011 6:17:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
I hv n long EURUSD the whole week, I am waiting too see how it reacts to 1.37's esp 1.3740 a major resistance

AUDUSD Im waching for a bear signal to set-up

AUDCAD, SHORT @0.9903 TP 0.9820 SL 0.9960
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#665 Posted : Thursday, January 27, 2011 12:17:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I'm watching the narrowing USDCHF bollinger bands. A breakout is in the offing. RSI has been slowly creeping up... If the breakout leads to a buy, EURUSD will be a sell.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
qw25041985
#666 Posted : Thursday, January 27, 2011 12:25:29 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
funny enough usd/cad and usd/chf are both forming a descending wedges !!!! it a very bullish pattern ........it all depends w/ the us gdp number on friday....

@ fxtech . lookin at your 4hr chart . aud/usd is in a bear flag.it very clear have a look...u have to love the way it nicely collerated to the euro. wait for a breakout or u'll be whipped sawd.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
fxtech
#667 Posted : Thursday, January 27, 2011 6:42:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@qw I have bn analying the AUDUSD, where do u thnk we headed esp after the flag u just highlighted

@Hisah, I like ur analysis,looks like USDCHF will be heading north lets see how the next 2 candles play out on H4, I will keep u posted
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#668 Posted : Friday, January 28, 2011 6:52:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
US GDP risk event is now out of the way. Still holding the 2 EUR/USD positions activated yesterday @1.3760 (previous short order). TP still remains 1.3630 for position one. TP2 for position 2 will be determined next week.

The NASDAQ short is working out slowly. Added Dow short at 11970; with the 12000 target achieved and exceeded with overbought weekly and daily RSI, this one has some room to correct. Currently the targets are open for the two US market shorts, but will review next week. This also means bad news for aussie and euro bulls with the current stocks correction.

I'm waiting for USD/CHF to break above 0.9470, then I can go long. USD/JPY is a bit messy. I'll avoid it for the time being. Next week I'll be looking at aussie pairs for trade ideas apart from AUD/NZD.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
qw25041985
#669 Posted : Friday, January 28, 2011 7:18:17 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
i am also looking to short aussie but they just dnt want to fall out of the bear flag. i need a clear signal.i lok to be long on usd/jpy coz of the bull flad on 4 hour chart...31.8 fib level of last upswing has held well even through the u.s gdp which was very uneventful .
61.8 fib level is still to be watched as what is goin on now is just an overdue correction on eur/usd ( eu)
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
qw25041985
#670 Posted : Saturday, January 29, 2011 4:08:07 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
u still have a chance to get in on this trade !!!!!! eur/chf lookin nice for a nice down move....i entered late but i am in money....Look at the chart for friday's close.and remember to look for a good entry place on lower time frames.

http://www.actionforex.c...forexcom/2011012881.gif



if that eur/chf set-up isnt enough . how about the impending breakout of aud/usd on the four hr chart. u know hw triangle set-ups are volatile.Look at the chart . it's just a matter of time before we brakout.Maybe after non-farm payrol on tuseday .
Here's the chart ( fridays close)

http://www.actionforex.c.../forexcom/2011012871.gif
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
hisah
#671 Posted : Monday, January 31, 2011 5:17:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
EUR/USD short position 1 (20K size) closed @1.3630 with 260pips gain. Position 2 is still slighly in the money, but I've trailed the stoploss to breakeven (1.3760). However if the pair manages to reach that level, I'll re-enter the short again for a larger ride down to 1.3560.
Yet again USD/CHF is stuck in narrowing bollinger bands (4hr). It's been like watching paint dry, but downside risk look more of the likely breakout especially if 0.9350 gives way.
Small short term AUD/USD short at market (0.9954), ST 0.9990 and TP 0.9880 - This is attempting to test the AUD/USD on the 4hr chart bear flag.

update - forgot to mention I'm also speculating on wikileaks releasing the banks details this week to cause some discomfort in the money markets...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ceinz
#672 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 11:47:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
CAD/JPY, buy order placed @ 82.20, TP 82.90, SL 81.80. Rsn. stochastic turning from oversold, bounce on the 4 hr rising channel, also good gdp figures for nov released yesterday, a good boost for the loonie.
“small step for man”
qw25041985
#673 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 1:32:20 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
just got off long at 61.8 fib level on eur/usd w/ 30 pip profit. that first move was a fake-out..thank goodness i didnt enter it...
take a look at nzd/jpy on daily chart. its in a tight squeeze triangle....allot of news is expected out of australia this week of first of feb so i expect some quite trading...looking bullish..
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
qw25041985
#674 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 1:40:11 PM
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Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ Ceinz . YOU MUST BE JOKIN . BUYIN CAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!! can you cancel that order and save your money !!!!!!!

the pair just broke and closed below 100 ma ( very very very IMPORTANT moving average) and also closed below the rising trendline extending since 21 October. ...

i hope i didnt tell you tooo late but close the order !!!!!!!!!!
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
Ceinz
#675 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 2:39:11 PM
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Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Thanks qw, my order is still well above the current price 81.6. Actually ur right, coz the direction is south. Let me cancel it and concentrate on my scalp trades.
“small step for man”
hisah
#676 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 9:01:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
EUR/USD position 2 closed at breakeven. AUDUSD SL hit for a 36pip loss. So what is the euro bull story today -> EU aid (EFSF) fund may be authorized to buy new bonds from governments! How this is viewed as bullish by the markets is quite interesting and the EUR/USD continues to push towards 1.40..? I'm sidelined on the EUR/USD for now, this is madness with the all the debt issues being monetized... Euro stocks all up. And so does the Dow and S&P also up to levels last seen in June 2008 and Sept 2008... The weekly candle sticks are turning bearish plus overbought RSI, but the markets just won't give up that easily... This looks like a classic blow off before a correction. Dow short revised with SL at 12100 and NASDAQ SL @2375. I will not fight with this irrationality...

With USD/CHF having broken below 0.9350, the $ should continue down south for a while.

I'm still looking for aussie shorts and AUD/USD now above 1.01 is looking interesting again.



$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
The Merchant
#677 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:55:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
There is a potential Short opportunity on the usd/chf chart. Im just waiting for the leading span to cross under the lagging span to confirm this. Please notethat the usd/chf pair is -1 correlated with the eur/usd so any short position here should be followed by a simultaneous long position in the eur/usd. My eyes are glued to the screen.smile
Ceinz
#678 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:11:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
Ceinz wrote:
Thanks qw, my order is still well above the current price 81.6. Actually ur right, coz the direction is south. Let me cancel it and concentrate on my scalp trades.


qw, reviewing my cancelled trade, well cad actually did turn around and looking at the charts my entry could have been triggered and i could have now be in the money. Thanks for the 'warning' though. still lots of opportunities to catch.
“small step for man”
Ceinz
#679 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
@ Hisah, im with you on the aussie. After breaking above parity yesterday and finding resistance at the 1.0150 handle, and stochastics also in the overbought territory, looks like the bears can drive the pair all the way back to parity. looking to enter when it cross below 1.0100.

@ The merchant, my opinion is that usd/chf is already oversold. However there may still be short opportunies depending on how u look at it.
“small step for man”
The Merchant
#680 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:14:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@Ceinz. I was basing my tip on Ichimoku crossing over. Has not happened yet so Im waiting. However be careful to use the term oversold with this one. Things still look very bearish.
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