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mumias sugar H1 down 22%
MaichBlack
#41 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 8:33:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,568
kenmac wrote:
it must be scotish...

this talk of 6 bob and 3 bob nerve wrecking

Hiyo ni porojo! Kwani mumias ni samaki aliyeharibika? Look at the fundamentals. What has fundamentally changed in a couple of weeks to warrant such a huge drop?

As @Aguytrying is saying, this is the time for anyone [speculator] with balls of steel to make money. Let people drive the price down with their panic, and watch the volumes keenly. Once the supply starts drying out, dive in. In a couple of weeks the price heads north - somewhere in between the low and the original price. Again watch the volumes and exit.

Kenyans never learn. This scenario played itself a couple of times last year. A company announces a profit warning, the price falls by a huge percentage, guys come back to their senses and the price heads north - somewhere in between the unreasonable low and the original price. And in all madness speculators make their 30% in a couple of weeks.

For investors it's abviously a different ball game.

I'm not a speculator so I rarely participate in the madness. But if I have been eying a stock, the madness is a God send.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
youcan'tstopusnow
#42 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 8:56:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
For Sport wrote:
3 bob? Suggesting that sugar can be compared with batteries?? Shame on you

Laughing out loudlyLaughing out loudlyLaughing out loudly If it goes that low, Merali and Kidero will start hanging out. Whoever manages Kenya Orchards should probably join them too
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#43 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 10:13:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Contrarian investors where art thou...below 6 bob...MSC is a buy...
guru267
#44 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:07:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
kenmac wrote:
it must be scotish...

this talk of 6 bob and 3 bob nerve wrecking

Hiyo ni porojo! Kwani mumias ni samaki aliyeharibika? Look at the fundamentals. What has fundamentally changed in a couple of weeks to warrant such a huge drop?


@maichblack mumias can fall to 6bob because there is absolutely no avenue for them to raise profits in the short term... This was evident when they announced their full year profits

I would buy at 6bob because of the 7% dividend yield but not for profit growth...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Paul Kukubo
#45 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:15:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/19/2009
Posts: 3,142
tardda project is dead. munias can only survive if it buys all western province sugar producers to reduce competition. Six bob is fair price for this company before comesa market kills it.
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:34:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Paul Kukubo wrote:
tardda project is dead. munias can only survive if it buys all western province sugar producers to reduce competition. Six bob is fair price for this company before comesa market kills it.
@paulkukubo ya ICT Board?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#47 Posted : Wednesday, February 02, 2011 8:52:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Paul Kukubo wrote:
tardda project is dead. munias can only survive if it buys all western province sugar producers to reduce competition. Six bob is fair price for this company before comesa market kills it.


@Paul Kukubo check this out http://www.standardmedia...ke/videos/?id=2000028055
mlennyma
#48 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 12:53:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Mumias seems to have be gaining support contrary to guru's gospel.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Tommy
#49 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 4:59:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/9/2010
Posts: 894
Location: Nairobi
sometimes i fail to understand this market, i thought that the bad results will mean mumias is a no go zone. but the demand/support is too much to let it fall. The bargain hunters are many
Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
MaichBlack
#50 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 5:00:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,568
MaichBlack wrote:
kenmac wrote:
it must be scotish...

this talk of 6 bob and 3 bob nerve wrecking

Hiyo ni porojo! Kwani mumias ni samaki aliyeharibika? Look at the fundamentals. What has fundamentally changed in a couple of weeks to warrant such a huge drop?

As @Aguytrying is saying, this is the time for anyone [speculator] with balls of steel to make money. Let people drive the price down with their panic, and watch the volumes keenly. Once the supply starts drying out, dive in. In a couple of weeks the price heads north - somewhere in between the low and the original price. Again watch the volumes and exit.

Kenyans never learn. This scenario played itself a couple of times last year. A company announces a profit warning, the price falls by a huge percentage, guys come back to their senses and the price heads north - somewhere in between the unreasonable low and the original price. And in all the madness speculators make their 30% in a couple of weeks.

For investors it's abviously a different ball game.

I'm not a speculator so I rarely participate in the madness. But if I have been eying a stock, the madness is a God send.

@kenmack - You see what I was telling you? Don't listen to porojo na 'siasa ya pesa nane'

Did you follow the trading today? Did mumias look like a share headed to 3/-?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
kenmac
#51 Posted : Thursday, February 03, 2011 8:35:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
@maich, it feels brrrrrrr........and it is time to average down.
......Ecclesiastes
awando
#52 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 4:36:41 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/4/2011
Posts: 8
Location: kenya
I am very bullish on MSC. The fundamentals of this counter are very solid. Our 1yr target price for this counter is Kshs 13.21.

Check out this valuation: http://www.investragy.com/content.php?postid=85

We are forecasting MSC to beat FY10 numbers based on solid valuation.

Cheers!

www.investragy.com
www.twitter.com/investragy
www.facebook.com/investragycapital
Investragy Capital - Portfolio Strategies for East Africa.
erifloss
#53 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 8:34:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Paul Kukubo wrote:
tardda project is dead. munias can only survive if it buys all western province sugar producers to reduce competition. Six bob is fair price for this company before comesa market kills it.

@Paul, true! What mumias has to do is buy the sugar producers in western and expand their brand presence. Tarda project is a dream and even if it picks up it will be late coz of comesa and recouping the investment will be a huge hustle. Carbon trading & ethanol adds very little to the topline and is of no consequence.
They pay farmers very little per tonnage of cane and with the registration of butali within west's quota a precedent has been set and soon another 'butali' might come up in their region and take advantage of the poor payments to farmers.
6 is not far fetched.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
guru267
#54 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 9:24:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Mumias seems to have be gaining support contrary to guru's gospel.


Bargain hunters don't last for long... If the stock is in a downward trend then the correction upwards should be an opportunity to sell the counter...

It might not last forever..

Disclaimer: Its been long since i carried out research on this one...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
2012
#55 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 9:56:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
So what ails Mumias? I've just never understood. There's always a time in every year when there's a sugar shortage and supermarket are forced to sell only one pack pp at an exaggerated price and all these well connected individuals get approvals to import titanic loads of sugar. We all know sugar demand in Kenya far outstrips supply so what is it really, is Mumias poorly managed? Wastage, bad marketing strategies, high operating costs or what? I honestly don't get. If there hurdles with Tarda why not acquire those guys at Awendo or some of those other struggling millers?

BBI will solve it
:)
youcan'tstopusnow
#56 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 1:28:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
And why does 'bad weather' every time affect transportation of sugarcane? Do they expect the govt. to tarmack the roads upto the farms? They should consider improving the road network themselves
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#57 Posted : Friday, February 04, 2011 10:39:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
MSC is going through a relief rally...today supply outstripped demand...it´s going down.
VituVingiSana
#58 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 12:30:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@youcant - Ignorance is the worst sin...

GoK charges a LEVY on sugar/sugarcane & the funds are supposed to go to 'develop' the areas & industry... Yeah, right! They are used to buy 4x4s & employ cronies at Kenya Sugar Board!

There is supposed [note the 'supposed'] to be a program to build/upgrade/maintain roads in the sugar producing areas lakini wapi???

Anyway, MSC has asked [for years] that the levy be collected by an INDEPENDENT organization & the funds be administered by MSC [for the Mumias catchment area] & the farmers/stakeholders... Of course, this means MSC & the farmers are responsible for the cash & results...

So should I continue to explain why neither MSC nor the farmers have much say in how the Sugar Levy is used/spent?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#59 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 8:47:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VVS, no ignorance. That's why I said MSC should not expect the government to tarmack the roads anytime soon. This year the levy charged was probably 'transferred' to the drought relief to buy dead/dying cows
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
qw25041985
#60 Posted : Saturday, February 05, 2011 12:12:33 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ the deal . the ceo of mumias,kebati is expecting the sugar project at coast to begin next year and also expects the rebound in 2H to be good.Secondly ethanol plant will start operations to begin in 2012.It is envisaged ethanol will contribute 1.5 billion shillings per year in revenues .24 billion-shilling
sugar project at the Kenyan coast, which it hopes can get underway
next year.We all know the advantages of growing sugar cane at coast.Thirdly more cane crushed coz in the current half-year they are going to have a full six
months of operation since it has been relatively dry since December and they are able to crush more cane .To put the final nail on this coffin all this is coming from the C.E.O .This is just good.

so if you want to sell go ahead. technically it will go down but for those w/ a long-term view ( ME included)its a bliss if it hits its 6.00 support . i am camped there actually.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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