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Stanbic Uganda profits to drop by 20-25%
Mitone
#1 Posted : Monday, January 31, 2011 4:20:38 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/27/2011
Posts: 14
Hey guys, what are your thoughts on Stanbic Uganda going forward seeing as they have declared that their 2010 profits will be lower by 20-25%?

http://allafrica.com/stories/201101270035.html

This comes at a time when Kenyan banks are expected to post strong results. Do you see their price dropping from its current Ushs 275?
mlennyma
#2 Posted : Monday, January 31, 2011 8:19:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
And more to worry,the opposition is promising the egypt way should museveni repeat what he is good at during elections.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 7:17:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@mitone. Investors dont take profit warnings lightly. Look at sameer 8.5-6.5, eveready 4.0-3.0, cables 20.00- 16.50, mumias 9.80- ?. After their profit warnings. They all dropped significantly. I cant tell you for sure what will happen as the circumstances vary.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Tuesday, February 01, 2011 8:07:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Last year saw many Ugandan banks taking hits for various reasons including:

- Issues with Title Deeds [similar to Kenya]
- UGX depreciation [Huge thus losses where not mitigated]
- Losses/writeoffs per 'improved' BoU regulations [This is good for future earnings]
- Expansion [Uganda banks expanded rapidly in 2009 & continued in 2010 & the costs add up for training, setup, etc]
- Elections on 18 Feb 2011 means many banks slow down lending 12 months prior to elections. Same will happen in Kenya starting 4Q 2011 according to bankers I talk to.
- BoU cut down rates on T-Bills & T-Bonds thus reducing interest income for Banks.

IF, IF, IF
- elections go off without major hitches [Kenya, Ivory Coast, etc]...
- Oil [if Tullow is allowed to export]
- Peace in Southern Sudan

Then Uganda banks will be back in business in 2011...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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