Last year saw many Ugandan banks taking hits for various reasons including:
- Issues with Title Deeds [similar to Kenya]
- UGX depreciation [Huge thus losses where not mitigated]
- Losses/writeoffs per 'improved' BoU regulations [This is good for future earnings]
- Expansion [Uganda banks expanded rapidly in 2009 & continued in 2010 & the costs add up for training, setup, etc]
- Elections on 18 Feb 2011 means many banks slow down lending 12 months prior to elections. Same will happen in Kenya starting 4Q 2011 according to bankers I talk to.
- BoU cut down rates on T-Bills & T-Bonds thus reducing interest income for Banks.
IF, IF, IF
- elections go off without major hitches [Kenya, Ivory Coast, etc]...
- Oil [if Tullow is allowed to export]
- Peace in Southern Sudan
Then Uganda banks will be back in business in 2011...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett