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Next Bus 2011
youcan'tstopusnow
#21 Posted : Thursday, January 20, 2011 12:27:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
KulaRaha wrote:
guru267 wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
guru267 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Of course DTB will not be growing at 100 percent every year. No one does that.


On top of last years results I expect at least a 15% growth for 2011..


Lets see if in 2011 they can even match 2010 numbers.


Hahaha @kularaha they have expanded there branch network loan book and trading in bonds all through 2010.. This will allow them to surpass 2010 results easily


They made over 1B in revenue in bond trading in 2010. Given the current market conditions, Id love to see how they replicate that...you cant re-allocate a re-allocated bond book twice!

These jamaas have an excellent regional footprint. Na wanaendelea na expansion. The interest income will rise. I don't see flat first quarter results. Look for a previous thread on DTB. I think it was about half year results. Or maybe third quarter. mwanahisa had crunched DTB's numbers excellently, especially on the interest income and other income conundrum
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Aguytrying
#22 Posted : Thursday, January 20, 2011 9:40:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Ha ha. Kq a bus! More like an undecided plane, Even if im wrong, i dont want their money.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
qw25041985
#23 Posted : Thursday, January 20, 2011 10:34:51 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
KQ is for the true investor .....its really funny how stocks are bringing out the true investors in us to the light...
when even @2012 @ ProvverB starts questioning themselves y they bought KQ it shows how weak the so called gurus are in investing...
@ Aguytrying . u are definately one of those who bought KQ w/ the wazua herd mentality. which is quite dangerous...
A patience investors will always be rewarded...and as warren buffet wld say...price always catches up w/ good fundermentals.....I am in KQ and if i heard mo' money other than investing in fx i wld buy kq at the current or lower prices....
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
ProverB
#24 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 7:19:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
qw25041985 wrote:
KQ is for the true investor .....its really funny how stocks are bringing out the true investors in us to the light...
when even @2012 @ ProvverB starts questioning themselves y they bought KQ it shows how weak the so called gurus are in investing...
@ Aguytrying . u are definately one of those who bought KQ w/ the wazua herd mentality. which is quite dangerous...
A patience investors will always be rewarded...and as warren buffet wld say...price always catches up w/ good fundermentals.....I am in KQ and if i heard mo' money other than investing in fx i wld buy kq at the current or lower prices....



@qw25041885.. you keep castigating wazua for "herd" mentality..so why are you here?
i wonder why u come to mind whenever i come across this quote..

"Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote."
..Warren Buffett


Brick wall Laughing out loudly
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Ali Baba
#25 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 7:48:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
QW:You need to show us the stuff you are made off.At what did you buy KQ? My friend bought 170,000 shares for KQ in 1996 at sh 6.00 and sold at shs 120.00.Now,that's the kind of stuff we need to see in you before you give a lecture on investing.
Ali Baba
#26 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 7:52:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
QW:You need to show us the stuff you are made off.At what did you buy KQ? My friend bought 170,000 shares for KQ in 1996 at sh 6.00 and sold at shs 120.00.Now,that's the kind of stuff we need to see in you before you give a lecture on investing.
mlennyma
#27 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 8:08:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Are things hotting up here?kq is among the darlings of the nse and am ready to swing up and down with it on the floor till death do us part.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
ecstacy
#28 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 8:59:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
I have ridden KQ to its KES 100+ highs and disembarked. Looking at NSE stocks now, I'm back in it. The good thing is the latent flight potential for the patient. After dithering on the runway for a while the moment it starts moving, it flys! smile
ecstacy
#29 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 9:27:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
ecstacy wrote:
@P.B - I'm liking this Coop & HFCK stories. I have the latter so will just hold on. Any useful effects this year of the HF bond issue? I boarded Coop and alighted when it hit 19/=. It's on my watch list again.@ Whynow, tell me why.

How about my much neglected NBK - on dividend payouts?

How about EAGD - on plain demand figures I am seeing from rich?


NBK is behaving -

"Its price-to-earnings ratio, the measure that tracks the share price relative to the last earnings reported, is currently 8.1, while its peers like Housing Finance, Equity and Co-operative Bank stand at 27.5, 26.1 and 23.8 respectively.

'We can expect that the stock will catch up with the others, but the pace will depend on the investors’ perception about the bank’s business model,' said Mr Samuel Gichohi, the head of research at Standard Investment Bank.

Strong growth

Both market players have confirmed that the share will experience strong growth, in line with recovery of the local stock market to at least match the sector average price to earnings ratio of 17.8.

This puts the market value of the stock at less than half the sector average."

Ref - http://www.businessdaily...4/-/3n34q3z/-/index.html
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 9:33:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,216
Location: Nairobi
Does the EPS for NBK [as shown by Business Daily] discount the Preference Dividends??? Don't believe everything the Kenyan biz papers put out... they don't do their research so do yours!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ecstacy
#31 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 9:58:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
@VVS calm yourself. good point there though.

ecstacy
#32 Posted : Friday, January 21, 2011 11:53:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
hmmm...Mr market doesn't seem to care! NBK retains it's upward trajectory. At less than half the sector trailing P/E, I'd wonder what kind of discounting will leave it worse off at the end...anyho further analysis should confirm.
ecstacy
#33 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 2:10:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
NBK research indicates the following:
- The NBK preference share is entitled to a negotiable dividend not exceeding 6%.
- There are Kes 5.675bn worth of preference shares.

Assuming no growth of profits and assuming full dilution, the EPS will likely be north of 6.00. Assuming a conservative dividend payout ratio of 20%, the dividend is likely to be, at least, KES 1.20/= This puts the value of the share at between Kes 40-55/= depending on your assumptions i.e. between 3% and 4% dividend yield, 20%-50% pay out ratio and the factor of probability of dilution on the price of the stock.

Makes for a speculative play...

Coop continues to excite...
guru267
#34 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 3:19:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ecstacy wrote:
NBK research indicates the following:
- The NBK preference share is entitled to a negotiable dividend not exceeding 6%.
- There are Kes 5.675bn worth of preference shares.

Assuming no growth of profits and assuming full dilution, the EPS will likely be north of 6.00. Assuming a conservative dividend payout ratio of 20%, the dividend is likely to be, at least, KES 1.20/= This puts the value of the share at between Kes 40-55/= depending on your assumptions i.e. between 3% and 4% dividend yield, 20%-50% pay out ratio and the factor of probability of dilution on the price of the stock.

Makes for a speculative play...

Coop continues to excite...


3%-4% dividend yield can be found on many other counters on the market with much less risk than NBK
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
2012
#35 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 3:30:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
qw25041985 wrote:
when even @2012 @ ProvverB starts questioning themselves y they bought KQ it shows how weak the so called gurus are in investing...


I don't have KQ. I had it and sold it a long time ago when it was still the pride of stocks. Please quote where I've said I have this stock. I think it's a risky stock for people with low risk tolerance like myself. But you know what they say about risk and returns.

So @qw my recommendation for you is BUY BUY BUY!

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#36 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 4:37:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Car and General my speculative stock roaaaaaars...LMAO
ecstacy
#37 Posted : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 8:29:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
guru267 wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
NBK research indicates the following:
- The NBK preference share is entitled to a negotiable dividend not exceeding 6%.
- There are Kes 5.675bn worth of preference shares.

Assuming no growth of profits and assuming full dilution, the EPS will likely be north of 6.00. Assuming a conservative dividend payout ratio of 20%, the dividend is likely to be, at least, KES 1.20/= This puts the value of the share at between Kes 40-55/= depending on your assumptions i.e. between 3% and 4% dividend yield, 20%-50% pay out ratio and the factor of probability of dilution on the price of the stock.

Makes for a speculative play...

Coop continues to excite...


3%-4% dividend yield can be found on many other counters on the market with much less risk than NBK


@guru267, the thread is about buses. NSE buses are not driven by the safety of dividend yields, the homestay for StanChart or Total etc. I believe you buy into the latent potential going forward such as via acquisitions or growth stocks...

Who buys Car & General? smile
ecstacy
#38 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:03:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Forgot about NBK when they started talking of expanding in Kenya whilst the rest have since done so and gone regional.

@the deal, sharks. should have listened to you on Car & General! smile
Aguytrying
#39 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 3:16:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Might be odd me saying this, due to my reservations on kq. But at 42, it will easily reach 50. From there if results are good, the sky is the limit(literally) Does that qualify to make it a bus.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
ecstacy
#40 Posted : Friday, February 11, 2011 10:08:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
KQ should definitely rally from current share price..good results expected, how good and the effect we shall see...planned listing of Britak will impact on EB & HF, how? waiting to see. Definitely holding.
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