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2011 - Stock Picks @VituVingiSana
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 1:25:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Since I don't have @stockmaster discipline to list all my individual trades, these are my BUYS for 2011 as decided during my recovery from my Hangover on 2 Jan 2011.

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 1Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion. For the patient. I am lucky I can buy these at 10/-. It is a gift.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/- [but not for sale until Dec 2013 at 20/-]

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-

KPLC - Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity. I believe the 1H 2010-11 results will be very good.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-

Unga - [Coz someone asked] This is a 3-year play for me from mid-2010 not a 2011 performer. There is plenty of maize during 1Q 2011. Wheat is always imported so does not concern me as all millers are affected. If I owned 50% of Unga, I would sell the brand names, scrap/sell the machinery then use the cash to develop the land in Industrial Area.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Mid-2013 Target = 20/- [+ dividends]

[More details later to be added]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
pesa paps
#2 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 6:10:08 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/17/2010
Posts: 18
Location: naivasha
this is a bold step my friend. all the best though am noticing you have kept off financials and everyone is speculating financials to be the drivers for 2011
manuPK
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 6:18:39 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/16/2010
Posts: 92
Location: Nairobi
Agreeing with VVS, some agric & industrial are the way to go esp in the long-term.
Entrepreneurship is a cognitive bias. They can’t teach it to you.
Gatheuzi
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 6:57:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
@ vituz, good predictions.

If I add mine I will add DTB reasons;
- great 2010 performance.
- 2011 expected to give at least 30 % growth in PBT.
- 2bn funding in 2010 to be utilized to grow the loan book.
- branches to be over 100.

Price at beginning of the year = 135.

Price target 2011 = 250.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
invest0r
#5 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 6:58:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
I like, i like, i like this. pls make it easier for us by listing your average purchase price for the different securities
the deal
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 7:46:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Vitu is an long termer not a speculator although his target on KQ is too modest...Africa is on a growth trajector..with the weak shilling i expect a 70 bob by August..provided the labour issues are resolved..
cnn
#7 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 7:49:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
KK 65%,DTBK 12%,KCB 10%,WTK 8%,loose change in KQ and HFCK.
qw25041985
#8 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 8:07:56 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
I am stricly sticking to banks. so i add Co-Op ,K.C.B ,Equity . as a wholesome investor i'll speculate on neveready and access kenya .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
erifloss
#9 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 9:13:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
True financials are riding high but remember that after guys have made money they'll want to spend it probably by upgrading themselves by buying better cars for the ones who have and for the one who dont new ones from CMC or C&G which they'll fuel at kk, light their rural homes built with ARM's cement via kplc, fly to the coast or majuu for holidays on a kq flight, while over there enjoy a cold tusker, a cup of tea or coffee while staying at Serena....
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Thursday, January 06, 2011 9:15:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
erifloss, where do CMC keep their money? EABL je?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
tony stark
#11 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 8:55:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
VituVingiSana wrote:
Since I don't have @stockmaster discipline to list all my trades, these are my BUYS for 2011 as decided during my recovery from my Hangover on 2 Jan 2011.

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 1Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/-

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-

KPLC - Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-

[More details later to be added]


Cheers. This is a bold step and helps add perspective in the forum.
What is your objectives for the year or is it more long term?
Are you trading or simply investing?
Finally this stock pick looks very similar to what I thought you hold. Are you just stocking up on the same companies you hold or entering others afresh!
Good luck!
ProverB
#12 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 9:24:35 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
VituVingiSana wrote:

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 1Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/-

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-

KPLC - Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-

[More details later to be added]


@vitu..

i agree with you on kenol, and agric stocks..

KPLC..news of drought in some parts of kenya have begun..eastern province missed out on short rains.. but that's for another day..the only thing workibg for KPLC is the "moratorium" (sic) that Kengen cannot hike prices it charges on elec eventhough generating costs are increasingly going up.. how long do you think KPLC will enjoy this? plus labour union's call sometime back to push salary/wage negotiations to this year? Take a look at kplc's wage bill..plus it does not help them after reportin massive profits to deny salary/wage increase..

On matters KQ.. Naikuni has swept labour costs under the rag with the excuse.."KQ is in dire straits and cannot afford wage increases." how long will this persist if things are as rosy as you predict?

Again on KQ.. read thro threads in erstwhile SK upto 2007..and nothing has changed..promisory predictions of greater future? smile

This year they will do well..probably.. but my investment plan that considers 3-year average growth of 15% does not allow.. Plus hedging is not their core business.(growth is pegged on operational margins)
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
erifloss
#13 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 10:46:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
@Youcan'tstopusnow, CMC-DTB, EABL-SCBK.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 11:29:05 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VVS, kwani UNGA ulitupa?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#15 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 11:29:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS I like your predictions... I can already see WTK soaring...

I'm counting on DTK for a good first quarter
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
muganda
#16 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 11:41:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
@VituVingiSana, the measure of a man... smile

It's not lost on me that 3/4 of your 2011 stock picks are the same as those you picked in 2010. And you delivered in all your predictions. Such a different approach from the @stocksmaster and you met your objectives. Kudos!
VituVingiSana wrote:
KQ - Strong growth in destinations in 2009 & hopefully these translate into profits in 2010. The expensive hedges are burning off. Price target 43/- (current 35.75)

KPLC - Price target: Tough to say but I think 200/- including Rights premium (current 141/-). I might have to wait for 2010-11 results for this price.

Williamson: Great profits coming in 2010. Can they sustain the profits into 2011? Price target 200/- (Current 149/-)


And it's a new year 2011; you've added KenolKobil to the gravy train, while still expecting most growth from WTK. Best wishes.

VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 12:40:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Unga - This is a 3-year stock. I do not see much movement nor do I care until I want/need to sell. Unleveraged.

My goals are modest for my unleveraged portfolio at 15% p.a. = 50% over 3 years.

For my leveraged portfolio (50:50 borrowing) I need a higher return of 30% to cover interest, additional risk & 15%.

I have NOT sold any KK, KQ or WTK in 2010 [I added to my portfolio]

KPLC - I sold (coz I has no choice) some of my shares to fund my 'additional' shares + Rights. Overall, I will end up with more KPLC in 2011 than I had in 2010.

Since 3 Jan 2010, I have added WTK & KK to my portfolio. Happily!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
cnn
#18 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 12:49:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
And after that first time interim dividend from WTK the price now touches 218,and i feel we are far from where we should be.
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 12:59:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
And after that first time interim dividend from WTK the price now touches 218,and i feel we are far from where we should be.
Just saw it... So I am already in the black even with all my commissions paid for! A pity coz I wanted to buy more!

BTW, Kapchorua is also up on 100 shares but no sellers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#20 Posted : Friday, January 07, 2011 3:32:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Interesting picks @vvs. My 2011 portfolio which I acquired 4thQ of 2010 is very conservative and safe. Experience has taught me to stay off the streets when the bull is charging so no buying at this time.
For 2011 I have BBK, KK and KPLC. So far so very good.

BBI will solve it
:)
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