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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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@My 2 cents, agreed 12/= for 2009 dividend payout, though @stocksmaster is projecting a 6% div yield for 2010 at a price of 250/=.
@stocksmaster, I'm still holding SCBK but then again I'm a peculiar investor. What I wondered though is what your opinion is on the controversial Equity? (I see KCB, SCBK, Equity have nearly the same profit before tax in absolute terms thus far)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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@My 2 cents, agreed 12/= for 2009 dividend payout, though @stocksmaster is projecting a 6% div yield for 2010 at a price of 250/=.
@stocksmaster, I'm still holding SCBK but then again I'm a peculiar investor. What I wondered though is what your opinion is on the controversial Equity? (I see KCB, SCBK, Equity have nearly the same profit before tax in absolute terms thus far)
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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@ Muganda: Its interesting that at this point in time Equity, SCBK & KCB have all reported abt Ksh4.5 B profit. Both Equity & SCBK have almost same size of balance sheet which is almost half that of KCB.
I anticipate that for the next 2 years Equity will grow faster than the other two in profitability. However, the difference in growth will not be more than 10% higher than that of KCB. The mid tier banks (NIC,DTB,CFC) have more upside potential .
Happy hunting
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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The DTBK Q3 results are very impressive.
I had projected a 105% growth in Q3 2010 EPS versus 2009 Q3. They have returned a 118% growth.
An EPS of Ksh 10.83 for Q3 can be extrapolated to a 2010 full year EPS of Ksh 14.50. At current price of Ksh 128, the forward P/E is 8.8.
Bond trading was the main cash cow.That does not take away the thunder from the results because the same bond trading opportunity was available to the other banks. It means a good deployment of shareholder capital in maximising returns by the management.
Going forward, the bank has an aggressive branch expansion strategy that should in the medium to long term be a major source of revenue growth.Its loan lending policy is also getting aggressive (see growth in loan book and loan loss provisions).
The fair value for this share should be a trailing P/E of at least 20 (Ksh 153), rising to a price of Ksh 190 after the announcement of the end of year results in March 2011 (Assuming an EPS of Ksh 14.50 for 2010, this would be a trailing P/E of 13).
As i had indicated earlier, this share can easily return a 50% growth in capital gains within the next six months. I intend to hold the share for the next six months unless significant capital gains present themselves.
Happy hunting.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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@ Stocksmaster, it has been good following this thread throught the year. Congrats being transparent and making money too. I hope the resolution of playing the market and of course keeping us posted will run into 2011. Cheers!! Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,552 Location: nairobi
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@stocksmaster and all. This is the first time iv read this thread! Iv gone thru the whole damn thing and realised that im such a failure. I cld have gained sm insight had I seen sm of these discourses in good time. And to think of all the time I spent in the culture section reading 'js for laughs'.. #fail
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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END OF YEAR REPORT
As the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010.
Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[A]
Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)=Ksh 10,027.............................[B]
Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010:
Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000
Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638
Total: Ksh 1,111,638
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232
Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[C]
Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C}
= Ksh 1,107,078
Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850
Net Profit: 579,228
Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%
SUMMARY
At the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010.
With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85.
Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011.
My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011).
Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses.
Happy hunting and Happy New Year.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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stocksmaster wrote:END OF YEAR REPORT
As the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010.
Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[A]
Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)=Ksh 10,027.............................[B]
Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010:
Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000
Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638
Total: Ksh 1,111,638
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232
Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[C]
Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C}
= Ksh 1,107,078
Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850
Net Profit: 579,228
Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%
SUMMARY
At the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010.
With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85.
Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011.
My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011).
Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses.
Happy hunting and Happy New Year.
Brilliant.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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stocksmaster wrote:END OF YEAR REPORT
As the year comes to an end, below is the performance of my speculation portfolio that begun on the 1st January 2010.
Cash In Hand: Ksh 5,645.........[A]
Cash received as dividends (SCBK interim dividend paid Ksh 5 X 2111 shares less 5%)=Ksh 10,027.............................[B]
Market Value of Shares as at 31st December 2010:
Diamond Trust Bank: Ksh 135 X 4200 = Ksh 567,000
Standard Chartered Bank: Ksh 258 X 2111 = Ksh 544,638
Total: Ksh 1,111,638
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal: Ksh 20,232
Net Value of Shares currently held: Ksh 1,091,406...........................[C]
Total Value of Cash, Dividends and shares as at 31st Dec 2010: {A + B + C}
= Ksh 1,107,078
Initial Capital (01/01/2010): Ksh 527,850
Net Profit: 579,228
Net Percentage profit for 2010: 109.7%
SUMMARY
At the beginning of the year, the target was to attain a profit of at least 50% or outperform the NSE index growth for 2010.
With the NSE INDEX returning a 36.5% growth (about 38.5% when adjusted for dividends paid for 2010), my portfolio has outperformed the NSE Index by a factor of 2.85.
Going forward, I intend to maintain this activity going into 2011. The closing portfolio for 2010 will constitute the opening portfolio for 2011.
My target for 2011 is to replicate the 109.7% return (thus a portfolio worth Ksh 2,214,156 by 31st December 2011).
Towards this end, i will be rebalancing my current portfolio next week and posting all the activity as the year progresses.
Happy hunting and Happy New Year.
Intelligence is made of this!! Congrats @SM. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NOMA! What will stocksmaster do next? Will he lose the SCBK shares and add more DTB? Or will he go back to KCB? We can only find out next week GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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For the transparency, honesty and brilliance displayed day in day out throughout the year, i vote and declare Stockmaster the Wazuan of the year.....Will he lose the SCBK shares... P/s do as growth will slow down. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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When i went through this thread a few months back, i realised one of stocksmaster's greatest strengths is ignoring market noise. Congrats as we keep learning from you. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwenza, your signature amounts to hate speech  Where is Mzalendo Kibunja when you need him? IN WENGER WE TRUST! GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 5/9/2010 Posts: 1,418 Location: Nai
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LIVERPOOL KICKS ASS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/3/2007 Posts: 146
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Congrats @stockmaster... Have learnt a lot from your insight and your trades. Please keep on the good work... You are a real stock master as the name denotes... Great Job.
Cheers..
Happy New Year All!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Asante @Stocksmaster... Now if akina @ybigshout & @qw follow this too... I shud open an account in a similar fashion... but I am not as diligent in posting the trades like @sm Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwenza, your signature amounts to hate speech Where is Mzalendo Kibunja when you need him? IN WENGER WE TRUST! Calm down my brother. Your absence in sports' threads nowadays has been very conspicuous. What became of the invisibles? IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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mwenza wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:mwenza, your signature amounts to hate speech Where is Mzalendo Kibunja when you need him? IN WENGER WE TRUST! Calm down my brother. Your absence in sports' threads is very conspicous. What became of the invisibles? HAHA. True that. I have not been visiting other sections of Wazua for a couple of months now. (not only sports) Nitarudi GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/9/2010 Posts: 894 Location: Nairobi
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congrats sm. i am still watching the show. Don't wait for the Last Judgment. It happens every day. ~Albert Camus, The Fall, 1956
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/8/2008 Posts: 77
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Congrats, SM. I like the fact you are setting yourself a higher target in 2011, a more difficult trading year than 2010. Im sure it will present an opportunity for newer stock picking strategies..
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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
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