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NSE 20 Share Index recovers from a drop of 7.77% in 2009 to post a whooping 36.495% in 2010
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 4:32:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
NSE, as represented by its 20 share Index shrugged off a dismal 2009 performance of -7.77% to post 36.495%!
The 20 Share Index opened this year at 3247.44 and closed at 4432.60%.
Among the counters contributing to this stellar performance include 6 companies that posted above 100% capital gains as shown hereunder:

1) Kakuzi - 156.69%
2) Eaagads - 150%
3) Scangroup - 141.18%
4) Co-operative Bank - 112.29%
5) Centum - 104.44%
6) Kenol Kobil - 100%

Others following at below 100% capital gains but firmly in the top ten gainers are:

7) Diamond Trust Bank - 92.86%
8) Equity Bank - 86.41%
9) Sasini - 81.25%
10) CFC Bank - 67.78%.

It indeed was a great year for Equity investors, great in the sense that for the market to post such a return next year,2011, the Index will soar to 6050.28%
Can we do it again?
Which, in your opinion, are the counters to take us there?
@SufficientlyP
Gatheuzi
#2 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 4:54:08 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
Yes it was indeed a great year. The NASI also registered a 36% gain moving from 72 points at the beginning of the year to close at 98 points.

What we need to remember however, is that we were moving from a bear market in 2009 so the gains made in 2010 were as a result of the counters gaining their true valuations.

My estimate is that 2011 will still bring in good returns but I would cautiously expect about 25% gains on the index.

Of course there will be exceptions so the challenge is to track those companies. The other nagging factor will be the fact that 2012 is now closer than ever though the new constitution will play a part in cooling off the undesirable effects. We cant rule out the fact that 2012 will probably bring some slow down.

My advice is for investors to focus on counters that are not overvalued and which will not have a very face a very severe impact if things don't get so smooth.

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
muganda
#3 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 5:06:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Well said. And what a way to end the year with virtually all movements positive in the last two days smile

Performance of Markets to Nov 5 2010
63.1 Uganda
42.5 Kenya
24.0 Ghana
20.2 Tunisia
19.2 Nigeria
13.2 South Africa
12.1 Zambia
9.0 Egypt
1.7 Botswana

21.1 MSCI EM ex SA
9.50 S&P 500
8.30 FTSE
-11.3 Nikkei
cnn
#4 Posted : Friday, December 31, 2010 7:27:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,621
A good year it was,will be difficult to replicate in 2011,but there are counters which i still see good returns in 2011.Where is your money?
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#5 Posted : Monday, January 03, 2011 12:45:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
i agree with the previous posts that part of the Great performance was because we were coming from a depressed year and that some of the great results we expect from the banks next month have already been priced in.
Having said that, i see great opportunities in:
1) KCB - Trading at a trailing PE of 12.08 against
sector PE of 18.15 as at 31.12.2010.
- Expected to benefit from its expansion
strategy as the other E.A nations start
contributing to the bottom line.
- Lowest priced in the financial sector
going by its trailing PE. NB:NBK has a
lower PE but has the Preference share
burden.
2) KPLC - Trading at a trailing PE of around
11.68 against a sector PE of 14.93 as
at 31.12.2010.
- A fairly subscribed rights issue and a
good portion of its shares held by
institutional investors bound to
stabilise its price.
- God image expeceted to be portrayed to
the public especially through improved
and eye catching ads on Print &
Electronic press.
- Demand for power far exceeds its
supply and growing by the day as the
economy continues to grow.

3) Equity - Although well priced, it is bound to
reap lots should the rains continue
and political climate is stable and
the projected GDP growth rate of 6%
in 2011 is achieved!
Also keenly looking at Centum!
@SufficientlyP
PKoli
#6 Posted : Monday, January 03, 2011 4:02:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
i agree with the previous posts that part of the Great performance was because we were coming from a depressed year and that some of the great results we expect from the banks next month have already been priced in.
Having said that, i see great opportunities in:
1) KCB - Trading at a trailing PE of 12.08 against
sector PE of 18.15 as at 31.12.2010.
- Expected to benefit from its expansion
strategy as the other E.A nations start
contributing to the bottom line.
- Lowest priced in the financial sector
going by its trailing PE. NB:NBK has a
lower PE but has the Preference share
burden.
2) KPLC - Trading at a trailing PE of around
11.68 against a sector PE of 14.93 as
at 31.12.2010.
- A fairly subscribed rights issue and a
good portion of its shares held by
institutional investors bound to
stabilise its price.
- God image expeceted to be portrayed to
the public especially through improved
and eye catching ads on Print &
Electronic press.
- Demand for power far exceeds its
supply and growing by the day as the
economy continues to grow.

3) Equity - Although well priced, it is bound to
reap lots should the rains continue
and political climate is stable and
the projected GDP growth rate of 6%
in 2011 is achieved!
Also keenly looking at Centum!


This is great analysis. I would expect much better performance from KCB due to the fact that the rights funds will start bearing fruits. The regional branches in Uganda, SS and Rwanda will start contributing signficantly to the Group's bottomline.

KPLC - You are correct. If the Government continues to drive V2030, this is one company that should contribute significantly towards the Visions achievement. Do not forget KenGen in this equation.

Equity - nothing much to add. I think it is unlikely the share price will grow by more than 30% since it is already fairly priced. The price upsurge was mainly due to too much hype from M-Kesho issue. I think Coop could give good returns. The streamlining of the Coop movement and the bank's agressive expansion coupled without significant costs will lead to the bank's high profitability. It will also ride on CIC's growth prospects.

I also expect NIC and DTB to give good returns to the shareholders.

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