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POST-MORTEM OF OCAMPO 6 NAMING...
Kaigangio
#1 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 3:04:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
hi all,

now that we have reached the climax of the ocampo naming of the 6 names, the kenyan political landscape has just changed for ever...we expect to see a lot of political activities and realignments in the near future but that is a story for another day.

in the meantime, apart from the 6 whose future political careers and ambitions have been shattered completely, we will start seing other casualties trickling in with time...

on the ODM side, RAOs problems (political and not related to ICC) have just began...his right hand man (kosgey) is gone together with his voting block...expect the rest to follow...

on the PNUs side, martha karuas problems have just began...she has been fighting UK indirectly...he is gone but she will not inherit the voting block...any other upright politician that the PNU friendly regions fall for will carry the day...wiper is not lucky either...why did he side with ruto the other day?? this will cost him...

on the supporters side, the KK will now have a very good reason for a combined block...after all they have a common problem and sentiments...

lastly, kenyans political reactions are too predictable...i hope my brothers from the lake will be allowed to travel to their christmas destinations through kericho or kapsabet..

over to you guys...what impact will this latest action by ocampo has on kenyas politics, socio-economic development etc...

...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
bwenyenye
#2 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 3:10:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
RAO Kwisha..! This is the ned of the road for the guy. Wacth this space.

SK could penya katikati with the new RV alliance.

MK has a good but very tough chance.
I Think Therefore I Am
kadonye
#3 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 6:14:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/30/2009
Posts: 1,390
I disagree kagizzard.RAO ako poa.His enemy has been nailed.Chairman Kosgey wasnt going to bring him much Kalenjin votes anyway.All his boys and girls are safe

Kalonzo-He may benefit from a lack of clear kings and queens in Central and among the Kalenjin but this is not clear as it may benefit Raila as well(esp Central)

Martha-She must be happy!Uhuru, her only clear opponent in GEMA politics is out

For the ordinary Kenyan,no change
What a wicked man I am!The things I want to do,I don't do.The things I don't want to do I find myself doing
kadonye
#4 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 6:16:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/30/2009
Posts: 1,390
Kaigangio wrote:
hi all,

lastly, kenyans political reactions are too predictable...i hope my brothers from the lake will be allowed to travel to their christmas destinations through kericho or kapsabet..


On this I agree with you.Just check that 'list' thread with over 150 posts and witness our uniformity of thought,however wrong
What a wicked man I am!The things I want to do,I don't do.The things I don't want to do I find myself doing
marex
#5 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 6:18:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/4/2007
Posts: 656
actually the opposite is true..The Kalenjin were not expected to vote for RAO..so he loses nothing there!!! Martha Karua's bargaining power has been enhanced by the exit of UK.....but for Kalonzo ..things remain the same!!!! no gain ...no loss..atabaki amelala pale pale tu!!
The way I am
murenj
#6 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 6:52:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 851
Location: nairobi
I have a feeling that this is the start of a long journey. With trials starting in 2012, when Baks is safely out of the way, ocampo night cut a deal with UK and Muthaura to Implicate KIBAKI then WHAM.......by then, he will be too insignificant to cause instability. Raila's will be a silent arrest warrant. He will find himself arrested in one of the european countries,
masukuma
#7 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:07:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
Putting things in perspective...
Next steps

The six expected to inform the Pre-Trial Chamber II their readiness to appear before the ICC judges.

The three-judge bench will weigh the merits of Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s application and could reject the request to issue a summons to appear, approve it or transform it into an arrest warrant. The Prosecutor expects this to happen in the first part of 2011.

If the chamber agrees with Mr Moreno-Ocampo’s request, the individuals identified will be expected to go to The Hague to make their initial appearance before the judges.

A public hearing to confirm the charges will be held.

It is at this stage where the judges review the evidence and decide whether it is enough to proceed to trial. The six individuals can be represented by their lawyers. The prosecutor expects this will happen in the second part of 2011 or the beginning of 2012.

The Pre-Trial Chamber II consisting of judges Hans-Peter Kaul, Ekaterina Trendafilova and Cuno Tarfusser will make a decision to confirm the charges and send the case to trial, amend or reject the charges.

Mr Moreno-Ocampo expects that the trial of the six would begin in the second part of 2012 or early 2013.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
slammers
#8 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:09:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/1/2009
Posts: 206
this wil c the rise of EW the weekend was just the begining
Impunity
#9 Posted : Wednesday, December 15, 2010 7:52:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Nani EW?If this is the big mouth from Kitale then its pure shiet!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

simonkabz
#10 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 6:50:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
Kagizzard those are my near-exact thoughts. Hako kalist kataroast RAO mbaya. A KK alliance is most likely, its already taking shape. violence sioni. Candidate???
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
PONDI
#11 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 6:51:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/8/2007
Posts: 885
murenj has nailed it. i think wiper stands to gain the most from the actions of ocampo and co...
simonkabz
#12 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 6:57:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
Kaloozer? Dnt think so. He is still regarded as a traitor by many.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
YesuWangu
#13 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 7:57:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,588
murenj wrote:
I have a feeling that this is the start of a long journey. With trials starting in 2012, when Baks is safely out of the way, ocampo night cut a deal with UK and Muthaura to Implicate KIBAKI then WHAM.......by then, he will be too insignificant to cause instability. Raila's will be a silent arrest warrant. He will find himself arrested in one of the european countries,


Murenj, but do you think Ocampo is interested in local politics or proving his criminal cases?

I think the man has his own reputation as a criminal prosecutor to think of. He has instituted proceedings against the 6 he will see the cases through without looking to the left or right to political distractions and political deal cutting.

Enough of 'mights' or 'maybes', he has got evidence against the 6 and that is what counts.
masukuma
#14 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 8:17:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
@YesuWangu, don't be naive...this story has more to it than just 'criminal cases'
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
YesuWangu
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 8:34:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,588
Masukuma, maybe I am naive, but at least I am not the one doing complex permutations, calculating if the sky will fall on my head in 2012, maybe loosing sleep and calm in the process, crossing bridges that still don't exist. Because that is what it is.

bird_man
#16 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 8:46:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
Kenyans hawawezi saidika!Why are some people talking about 2012 and "who stands to gain the most".....
It's about JUSTICE for the IDPs languishing in the camps,people who had jobs and businesses like you and me but are now reduced to zero.It's about those who lost mothers,fathers,brothers and sisters in the chaos....not 2012!!
I wish every one of those politicians could become president for one term each....it's then that you would realize that the difference is the same.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
masukuma
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 8:51:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,821
Location: Nairobi
@YesuWangu, Let me ask...do you sincerely think (wish) that chaos will not occur if we have a narrow election in 2012?
the IIEC or its successor will be brought to a test - a test they have not yet passed since all Bye Elections and the past referendum have been relatively one sided.
Chaos will not ensue IF AND ONLY IF people accept that they can LOOSE. thats why there are ELECTIONS. Until that is sorted....any narrow election will be hot. regardless of what that document called the constitution says...it may be a new Kenya but its the same old KENYANS.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
YesuWangu
#18 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 9:04:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,588
I agree bird_man. Ocampo named the 6 in retrospect to 2007/2008 and even earlier as he shocks us. Its the accused who introduced the 2012 aspect to us and baited us and surprise surprise....we latched on! Sigh.....

Brother Masukuma, good point you give. What can we do to get Kenyans from focusing on 2012, politics and elections on every single thing every single day including crime?

I suggest we look at the accused in the light of the omissions and commissions they did in 2007/2008 or before. And not 2012 and the coming elections. Please.

Otherwise, its impossible to assist a people who don't want to be assisted.
nostoppingthis
#19 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 9:17:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/24/2009
Posts: 5,909
Location: Nairobi
bird_man wrote:
Kenyans hawawezi saidika!Why are some people talking about 2012 and "who stands to gain the most".....
It's about JUSTICE for the IDPs languishing in the camps,people who had jobs and businesses like you and me but are now reduced to zero.It's about those who lost mothers,fathers,brothers and sisters in the chaos....not 2012!!
I wish every one of those politicians could become president for one term each....it's then that you would realize that the difference is the same.


Is a KK alliance possible (bila the eastern KK)?
Kaigangio
#20 Posted : Thursday, December 16, 2010 9:33:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
@ all,

looking at that list of six critically, to any ordinary voter, it is the kikuyus and the kalenjins only who are featuring prominently but Ali...the questions that beg for answers are to the voters:

1. was the PEV executed by the KK only as it seems the KK was the axis of evil at the time?

2. if not why are there not others who contributed equally to the ones listed while their roles are already known?

if RAO can answer the above questions satisfactorily then he is safe...

as at the moment and having a rough idea as to how the kalenjins operate, RAO in the notorious north rift is now a non entity...simply put, he betrayed them iredeemably to the extent that he handed over their warrior or leaders (read ruto and kosgey)to the Hague. you see here RAO should never have held the closed door meeting with Ocampo recently when he came visiting...he did not disclose the agenda of that meeting to anybody...and to any ordinary voter the meeting was meant to persuade Ocampo to lock out the KK (read Uhuru and ruto) from the presidential race in 2012. this renders credence to the notion that the list was tailored to suit a political ambition of an individual...RAO..that meeting was a mistake that RAO will pay dearly. as for the rest of kalenjins still in ODM with RAO, pressure will start mounting on them (if it has not started yet) from their constituents to abardon RAO and whoever goes against this wish will be termed a betrayer...please note that any politician with a presidential ambition cannot afford to ignore the combined KK block no matter what!

as for kalonzo...he may think that he could steal the limelight from ruto and uhuru by freely inheriting their block...that is not the case because he has proofed beyond any shadow of doubt that he is unreliable. his political actions gives the image of an individual who could easily betray his compatriots without thinking twice. he swings just like a pendulum and his political stand is never known even unto himself...that is what the electorate does not want...believe it or not, it is actually uhuru and ruto who will approve the individual to be supported by the KK...

as for the iron lady martha karua, her biggest problem is her genda...she may actually be having some really juicy and good intentions for the country in her presidency. she may not get a sizeable approval from her compatriots in the central region due to the male dominance attitude...in order to build that needed recognition to national level, she would require to work extremely hard...
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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