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Wazuans, please explain this Facebook value madness!
tkzee
#11 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:39:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/13/2010
Posts: 160
Location: rift Valley-Naks
sparkly wrote:
Another bubble in the making. Facebook has a clickthrough rate (CTR) of 0.04% meaning that a user will click on an advert 400 times for every 1 million pages visited. Google has a CTR of 8%. Average for large websites is 0.2%. For a company whose major source of revenue is ad sales, this is very low. Revenues are unlikely to grow fast enough to justify the valuation. Its now more of the greater fool theory.

I totally agree with you.May be a ''social network bubble''only time will tell whether its
irrationality.
''i can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies,but not the madness of people''-Isaac Newton
bird_man
#12 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:58:41 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
"Buy into the hype alone and you create a bubble; real money supporting cleverly disguised debt"

@KenyanLyrics, I think that is one way of looking at it and you could be right.However,note that Facebook is not just a software/website;it's an idea.There are venture capitalists in Silicon Valley ready to buy into ideas.Reason?They know that the site has millions of users, once they get the money making formula right,billions will trickle in very fast like in the case of Google.It is probably easier to buy it off now with all those customers & "potential" than try creating your own site and hope to make more than Facebook in future.

Your site could be making more than Wazua.co.ke right now......but which one would you bid for at a higher price?smile
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
KenyanLyrics
#13 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:27:15 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
@Bird_man that's why I tried to highlight the point of the nature of the users. Facebook is essentially a communication network. It is therefore borderline offensive to try and advertise to them. Imagine having adverts running sometime during a phone call, or ads on a letter. Madness!
In the case of Twitter, this is a company that makes zero money! I don't mean 'little money' or 'insignificant amounts.' I mean ZERO. How can any sane investor draw a billion dollar valuation from that? More Madness!
Now comes a company called Groupon. After 3years of business, users are only in the hundreds of thousands, but sales are in the hundreds of millions! Google comes along and says "we'll give you 5 billion dala for a piece of the cake." That's real business.
Stealth
#14 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:27:21 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 145
Location: East Africa
starting to look like the dot com bubble all over again. only time will tell.
anasazi
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:08:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
Well, Twitter plans to make money using promoted tweets. I've already been seeing the promoted tweets, so don't say they're making Zero! Making money via Social is very difficult, though.. because the main reason they're there... as KenyanLyrics says, is to communicate!
Form is temporary, class is permanent
KenyanLyrics
#16 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 1:54:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
anasazi wrote:
Well, Twitter plans to make money using promoted tweets. I've already been seeing the promoted tweets, so don't say they're making Zero! Making money via Social is very difficult, though.. because the main reason they're there... as KenyanLyrics says, is to communicate!

Making money = profit. Twitter are in the red, and have always been. That single promoted tweet is not going to pay for 300 employees salaries, or even pay for this place:

http://techcrunch.com/20...-by-employees-pictures/

bird_man
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 2:16:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
@KenyanLyrics,some companies can make a loss for 10yrs but recover in 2yrs."Potential" is very important and that is what separates a regular investor and a venture capitalist.

The employees are being paid using funds from Venture Capitalists.And those venture capitalists are not dumb,they most likely see what the future has in store.Google is most likely making losses from products such as GoogleMaps,Google Docs,Chrome etc....but they are still producing them.Same case back here in Kenya,Nation Media could be making losses on Taifa Leo,K24 could be making losses from The People newspaper,Radio Africa could be making losses on The Star.....
But some people are brave enough to venture into an idea with "potential".And if all goes right, they become instant billionaires.It is all a matter of time. I'm sure 15yrs ago people would say "it's very difficult to make money from search business"......the same way we now say it's "hard to make money from social media".
Just my thoughts though, I'm not saying that I'm an authority.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
Mercie
#18 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 5:56:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/4/2009
Posts: 42
The notion that online social networks will make money selling adverts or products is missing the entire value proposition of a social network. The real opportunity is in harnessing the rich data that is created by those participating in conversations and interacting with each other.

The model itself may not be complex, the network could commercialize the value of the data by aggregating and anonymizing it, and then find third parties that benefit from, and are willing to pay for the rich data created by the community.
Go borrow vessels!
smooth
#19 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 6:53:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2007
Posts: 31
While social networks are growing others are growing on their backs, so in away a company should identify how the network can be of an advantage to itself. an example is skype . I downloaded the new version of skype and it has a tab for facebook on which one access news feeds (with options of sms and calls) . beside this is a phone book and you get access to all your friends phone numbers on facebook and thus if you want to call anyone .. all you need is buy credit from skype and call from your desk.

True, social networks or sites like google are making money from reselling their data from those who use it . Facebook currently is the number 1 website in the world and has attracted many big wigs wishing to have a small stake in it. Still like Mark's wish that he holds a big share and control of Facebook.



KenyanLyrics
#20 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:02:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
smooth wrote:
...Facebook currently is the number 1 website in the world ...


In terms of traffic, Google is the biggest website, by an infinite distance, followed by Facebook, then Yahoo

In terms of profitability, Google is yet again the biggest by an infinite distance, then Yahoo and Amazon

Now back on topic...
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