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Wazuans, please explain this Facebook value madness!
KenyanLyrics
#1 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 1:13:51 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
Twitter, a company that hasn't even figured out it's revenue model yet, is being valued at 4 BILLION dollars?!

http://techcrunch.com/20...ently-in-pole-position/

Facebook valued at 50 billion dollars, yet only managed a purported 1 billion dollars in total revenues.

http://techcrunch.com/20...n-in-secondary-trading/

Now Wazuans, I don't understand the nitty gritty on stocks, but my elementary financial knowledge tells me that this is just plain insane! How do these Western tech companies arrive at such billion dollar valuations, surely?
BGL
#2 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 2:10:18 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
The potential of converting traffic into cash.
Let me explain and take Wazua.co.ke as a case study. Supposing 10,000 PERSONS log into wazua to check the free live data stream and an additional 40,000 guests do the same 5days in a week. Assuming that 1/3 the total visitors can pay a premium for a more live data streaming after a 10 day no strings attached period. The 2/3 who wont pay for anything can keep posting and directing traffic to the site while the paying 1/3 receive data depending on what they are paying for instance(First class - may be 100 vertical lines of trades, Business class (50) or Economy class(10) with the charges pegged on the service you receive.
That just an example...........

The problem is that many people here have internalised that Wazua is a free to air channel and has to transmit a signal as long as there is no black out.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
fantony
#3 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 6:17:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 276
Why don't you take off some time this weekend and watch the movie called 'Social Network'?

It is about the set up of facebook and the intrinsic matters that go into the product/company.

I would not argue with the facebook valuation.. twitter too
sizzla
#4 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:07:33 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/10/2006
Posts: 201
Location: Nairobi
Google plans to acquire a company known as Groupon for $6B. It is a tech start-up owned by a 30 year old that sells discount coupons through online media. The total investment in the company amounts to only about $140m. Even the international financial pundits don't get this math but Google insists the information about customer trends and patterns is what makes this company so valuable.
sparkly
#5 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:10:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Another bubble in the making. Facebook has a clickthrough rate (CTR) of 0.04% meaning that a user will click on an advert 400 times for every 1 million pages visited. Google has a CTR of 8%. Average for large websites is 0.2%. For a company whose major source of revenue is ad sales, this is very low. Revenues are unlikely to grow fast enough to justify the valuation. Its now more of the greater fool theory.
Life is short. Live passionately.
bird_man
#6 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 7:49:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
I wouldnt call it a bubble.The potential that those companies have is amazing.Look around,everyone is logged into facebook.Its just a matter of time before someone who has figured a way of converting such traffic into cash comes along and buys it.So why would you sell it for peanuts?The intangible goodwill is what makes it so expensive.
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
McReggae
#7 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 8:37:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
Sober
#8 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 9:20:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
McReggae wrote:
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......

People who in to the cyber cafe to Facebook are either idlers or low end users. Its far much cheaper and time rating by login using my phone and only in to the cyber when I'm doing big volumes of data.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Sober
#9 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 9:25:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
McReggae wrote:
It's been long since I walked into a cyber cafe' but last weekend when I did, more than 90% of the users were logged into facebook.......

People who in to the cyber cafe to Facebook are either idlers or low end users. Its far much cheaper and time rating by login using my phone and only in to the cyber when I'm doing big volumes of data.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
KenyanLyrics
#10 Posted : Thursday, December 02, 2010 10:15:04 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
I see many Wazuans are being sucked into the madness as well! Any business owner can talk a good talk about potential earnings and what not, but as long as you have ZERO business(sales) like Twitter, then you are worth ZERO. OK, so consumer interest counts for something, but definitely not 4billion dollars!
As for Facebook hype, it also has to be understood that what they are trying to do is advertise to people during communication, which is very intrusive no matter how you spin it, which is why their CTR is so low despite the intense targeting of FB ads.
Bottom line is, its all hype till a company proves itself. Buy into the hype alone and you create a bubble; real money supporting cleverly disguised debt
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