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KPLC's Profit Before Tax to hit 7B by 2015
My 2 cents
#21 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:04:35 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
And they only propose to pay a dividend of 0.36 for the FY 2011; paltry to say the least.
guru267
#22 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:12:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
And they only propose to pay a dividend of 0.36 for the FY 2011; paltry to say the least.

dude get serious man.... They will maintain div at 1 bob.... Please read between the lines
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
My 2 cents
#23 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:15:03 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
guru267 wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
And they only propose to pay a dividend of 0.36 for the FY 2011; paltry to say the least.

dude get serious man.... They will maintain div at 1 bob.... Please read between the lines


Got the figure of 0.36 from the forecast FY2011 figures in the IM
mwanahisa
#24 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:22:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I read it as well and this puzzled me. The dividend yield at a price of 250 was 3.2%. Now it is going to drop to 1.85%. Just what is KPLC playing at?
My 2 cents
#25 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:36:17 AM
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Posts: 1,075
mwanahisa wrote:
I read it as well and this puzzled me. The dividend yield at a price of 250 was 3.2%. Now it is going to drop to 1.85%. Just what is KPLC playing at?


I did my math and I think I know where the 0.36 is coming from.

FY 2010; they paid out Kshs 633M over 79M shares
therefore 8 bob per share

FY 2011; if they propose to maintain a 633M payout regardless of the increased number of shares, this will be 633m divided by 1735M shares therefore 0.36 per share

This would not make me happy!!!! They should increase the 633M by some of the preference dividends saved.

I had anticipated a one bob dividend; 8/8
mwanahisa
#26 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:40:37 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
The more I think about the MD's presentation and the IM, the more inclined I am to think that this was a hastily done document without too much thought having gone into it.

We all know that KPLC is capable of achieving a lot more than what is being purveyed to us. After all the operational targets are set pretty high. So the question is why are the financial targets so modest?
2012
#27 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:54:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:


FY 2010; they paid out Kshs 633M over 79M shares
therefore 8 bob per share


Don't forget that this was after they had paid Govt 1.2b for the pref shares which I assume most of it will be channeled to the dividend pay off or else watatuona!
I don't know if these pref shares bothered you as much as did me. I used to get pissed every time I saw how much they were paying out.

BBI will solve it
:)
mwanahisa
#28 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 12:13:56 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Given the concerns being raised here, I wonder whether there is any forum which we can use to interrogate/interact with the company or their transaction advisors, especially an online one?
Sober
#29 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 1:20:34 PM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
It's rather evident that this rights issue will be oversubscribed big time. Such statement is good to discourage some 'investors' who are undecided. We'll be past the 7 BILLION by beginning of 2013
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
alikujia
#30 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 2:22:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
Sober wrote:
It's rather evident that this rights issue will be oversubscribed big time. Such statement is good to discourage some 'investors' who are undecided. We'll be past the 7 BILLION by beginning of 2013


I hope youre not saying it's a deliberate error. And where is the evidence of bigtime oversubscription? the surest evidence should have been the prevailing current price. Yes it will be oversubscribed, but likely not bigtime.
mwanahisa
#31 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 2:35:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Sober wrote:
It's rather evident that this rights issue will be oversubscribed big time. Such statement is good to discourage some 'investors' who are undecided. We'll be past the 7 BILLION by beginning of 2013


It is NOT my intention to discourage anyone from investing in the rights issue. Far be it from that. I am just bringing out some issues which I think ought to be discussed, since they have been put together to help us make our investment decision. And I think some of the information that KPLC has sent out is downright irresponsible, since in my view this information is incorrect. Now where are these Business Daily reporters when you need them???

I am going out on a limb and making the following assumptions:

1. PAT will continue growing at 15% per annum (the PAT figure for 2010-11 in the IM is projected to grow at 13.8%) over the 5 years to 2015. Hence, I expect PBT to be a lot higher than Mgt estimates as per the MD's presentation.

2. Dividend per share will continue to be paid at least at the same rate as it was prior to the Capital Restructuring i.e. a post-split equivalent of the 8/= before the split. I will therefore be expecting a 1/= dividend in 2010-11 if not more. This will not require the company to pay more than it has currently been paying on an absolute basis, even though the shares have increased. The Dividend payout ratio will also be a manageable 41% based on the Co's own projected PAT. This is lower than KenGen's current payout ratio.

Based on my assumptions above, all I am waiting for is to the rights to start trading, and I will be BUYING if the premium on the rights falls somewhat below the current differential between the share price and that for the rights. Can I hope for a bob? It would however have been nice (and less risky for me) if I could have gotten official clarification on the issues I am raising.

I prefer to buy the rights rather than the share for now, so bring it on.
My 2 cents
#32 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 3:56:09 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
mwanahisa wrote:
2. Dividend per share will continue to be paid at least at the same rate as it was prior to the Capital Restructuring i.e. a post-split equivalent of the 8/= before the split. I will therefore be expecting a 1/= dividend in 2010-11 if not more. This will not require the company to pay more than it has currently been paying on an absolute basis, even though the shares have increased.


KPLC will need to shell out 1.735B to pay out 1 bob per share so it is not true that dividend payout on absolute will not change (current is 633M)

Unless of cause you are factoring the 1.2B previously paid to pref shares.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#33 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:12:01 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
If i heard him (CEO Njoroge)well, he said the Fixed dividend burden from the RPS will be eliminated and the 1.2B "saved" will be added into their Capital projects kitty and not end up in s/holders pockets as dividends!IMHO, KPLC will pay 0.36, or slightly more next year and not 1 bob!At today's closing price of 22.50, a 0.36 DPS will lead to a Div yield of 1.6%, a far cry from what KPLC investors have been getting!
@SufficientlyP
My 2 cents
#34 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:21:12 PM
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
If i heard him (CEO Njoroge)well, he said the Fixed dividend burden from the RPS will be eliminated and the 1.2B "saved" will be added into their Capital projects kitty and not end up in s/holders pockets as dividends!IMHO, KPLC will pay 0.36, or slightly more next year and not 1 bob!At today's closing price of 22.50, a 0.36 DPS will lead to a Div yield of 1.6%, a far cry from what KPLC investors have been getting!


I also suspect so. I am holding on to it for the capital gains, roho ishatoka kwa dividends. @Guru I am afraid it is no longer your 'bond' equivalent
KIRTI
#35 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:31:21 PM
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Joined: 8/17/2010
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If they give dividend 0.36 or slightly more next year & not one bob then share ptice will go down up to 16 bob.
2012
#36 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 6:09:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Anyway, all said and done this is still a must have counter in a portfolio and this is going to be by far the best opportunity you'll have of getting in. There's enormous growth opportunity, is still a monopoly and will be for a long time and this national gem will be immune to our turbulent politics. I can bet you it will be trading @100 in 5yrs or less so if you're looking for a good mid to long term investment, look no further.

BBI will solve it
:)
guru267
#37 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 6:22:46 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
If i heard him (CEO Njoroge)well, he said the Fixed dividend burden from the RPS will be eliminated and the 1.2B "saved" will be added into their Capital projects kitty and not end up in s/holders pockets as dividends!IMHO, KPLC will pay 0.36, or slightly more next year and not 1 bob!At today's closing price of 22.50, a 0.36 DPS will lead to a Div yield of 1.6%, a far cry from what KPLC investors have been getting!


I also suspect so. I am holding on to it for the capital gains, roho ishatoka kwa dividends. @Guru I am afraid it is no longer your 'bond' equivalent



@my 2 cents if they really wanted to save their profits K.P.L.C did not have to pay the 1.25 billion preference div because all they had to do was not declare an ordinary div but instead issue bonus shares like National Bank.

But since they did pay both out I see no reason why they should stop.. besides they used to pay a 51% ratio of the profits and if they pay out a 1 bob div per share the payout ratio will be only 41% of the projected earnings...

So what reason do they have for withholding the cash because we have given them 9.5billion after all???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#38 Posted : Wednesday, December 01, 2010 3:58:28 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
If i heard him (CEO Njoroge)well, he said the Fixed dividend burden from the RPS will be eliminated and the 1.2B "saved" will be added into their Capital projects kitty and not end up in s/holders pockets as dividends!IMHO, KPLC will pay 0.36, or slightly more next year and not 1 bob!At today's closing price of 22.50, a 0.36 DPS will lead to a Div yield of 1.6%, a far cry from what KPLC investors have been getting!


Did you actually hear him say that?

I guess even at a DY of 1.6%, KPLC could still fly as 1.6% is not the least yield that you have on the market. This would only be palatable to shareholders if the withheld profits were being suitably reinvested in order to grow profits. One would therefore have been expecting higher growth in the PBT by 2015 than that indicated.

However, if you look at all the listed companies in which the GoK has a significant shareholding, they all tend to be good dividend payers especially in terms of the yield (not so much payout ratio). I have in mind KCB, KenRe, MSC, Safaricom (now at least) and KenGen. Portland is the standout exception but I guess they just do not have the cash to pay.

I do not see why KPLC, which has good cash flows and expected reasonable profit growth should be an exception.
guru267
#39 Posted : Wednesday, December 01, 2010 7:15:03 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa I seriously tried to look in the I.M where it projects 7billion P.B.T by 2015 but I did see that they project a P.B.T of 6.1 billion by end 2011...

And nowhere did I see 2011 D.P.S being projected at 0.36 but rather I saw the 2010 D.P.S quoted as 0.36 and we all know the reason for this...

So what's all the fuss about!!???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#40 Posted : Wednesday, December 01, 2010 8:18:36 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
guru267 wrote:
@mwanahisa I seriously tried to look in the I.M where it projects 7billion P.B.T by 2015 but I did see that they project a P.B.T of 6.1 billion by end 2011...

And nowhere did I see 2011 D.P.S being projected at 0.36 but rather I saw the 2010 D.P.S quoted as 0.36 and we all know the reason for this...

So what's all the fuss about!!???


Ref to Pg 68 of the IM - the Pro Forma Statement of Comprehensive Income for the Year Ending June 30 2011. The PBT is projected at 6.061 B, EPS at 2.54 and DPS at 0.36.

As I have stated elsewhere, I am assuming that this figure was just copy pasted from the 2010 figures. I am therefore inferring that the intention was to maintain the DPS at the 2010 level i.e. at 1/=. All the same I can live with the lower dividend of Kshs 0.36, if it will result in accelerated earnings growth.
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