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The NSE on a Bear Run
the deal
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:50:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Its official the NSE is on a bear run, after 6 days of relentless straight losses and the NSE20 breaking through the pivot(4500), this downward trend may take months to reverse.
Sober
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:04:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
I have promised myself not to be worried with this, instead, i am keeping enough cash to swing in at the opportune time.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
My 2 cents
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:07:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
Where's the chap that was asking if we are in a bull market, a week ago?
Njung'e
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:08:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@the deal,
This is cyclic....It's spending time.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:20:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
true. I dont think it will last.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
wangugi
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:29:54 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/5/2010
Posts: 23
its possible for there to be a reversal in the second half DEC, there has been a tendancy for shares to rise around this period.
check out this graph

http://live.mystocks.co....ls;v=ovr;ind=rsi;linked

wangugi
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:37:32 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/5/2010
Posts: 23
the 9 mths RSI for the NSE20 is currently below 30, indicating an oversold condition and a possibilty for a reversal
Sober
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:49:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Am waiting for someone to post here a weird idea like ''guys are selling to get cash for the festive season''
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
ProverB
#9 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 10:52:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Sober wrote:
Am waiting for someone to post here a weird idea like ''guys are selling to get cash for the festive season''


LOLLL!!!! ama school fees ya form One. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
qw25041985
#10 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:29:15 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
We areNOT in a bear run .guyz come on . Do we have real investors in this house !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! When did the bull market end ?We arent even half way through it. Or it only lasted 1 year .LOL ! What is happening is that investors (foreigners) who control the n.s.e - lets admit it - are scalling back on invetment in the local brouse coz of the euro debts problems.As you'll note if you watch CNBC that allmost all foreing exchanges are in the red.From ftse to NYSE to LSE coz of all the talk about portugal and spain and other european countries spreading their indebtness to all of Europe.
Once this panic stops they'll be back and they better find you stocked w/ high performing shares.Coz they really can push up the index.
Now is the time to stock up in the quite of the market.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
astute
#11 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 11:37:29 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 101
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
Sober wrote:
Am waiting for someone to post here a weird idea like ''guys are selling to get cash for the festive season''


LOLLL!!!! ama school fees ya form One. smile



Laughing out loudly
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#12 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 1:55:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
qw25041985 wrote:
We areNOT in a bear run .guyz come on . Do we have real investors in this house !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! When did the bull market end ?We arent even half way through it. Or it only lasted 1 year .LOL ! What is happening is that investors (foreigners) who control the n.s.e - lets admit it - are scalling back on invetment in the local brouse coz of the euro debts problems.As you'll note if you watch CNBC that allmost all foreing exchanges are in the red.From ftse to NYSE to LSE coz of all the talk about portugal and spain and other european countries spreading their indebtness to all of Europe.
Once this panic stops they'll be back and they better find you stocked w/ high performing shares.Coz they really can push up the index.
Now is the time to stock up in the quite of the market.

Very true @qw
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#13 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 2:01:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
I think we r going to see a Great Dec unlike the others coz of 2 main reasons:
1) We have a Rights issue, more like an IPO in terms of the amount required. This will keep investors eyes fixed on the market.
2)Without a doubt,2010 has been a Great year for the banks, what with the double digit profits so far, DTB managed a tripple. Investors will begin taking positions at some point in the month in anticipation for great results and dividends!
3) Cant believe it but Christmas will be on a Saturday. The Brokers,traders, CDSC, speculators et al will be so hapi with this!
@SufficientlyP
mwanahisa
#14 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 2:57:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@SPT, I second your sentiments. Yesterday and today, I have been bargain hunting for my speculative portfolio and I managed some nice picks i.e. Equity Bank @25.25-25.50 (this one I could not believe), Coop @ 18.70 & 19, HF at 25.25 & 25.50 and KCB @ 20.75.

I am wagering that when the KPLC rights actually start trading guys may realise that it wont be so easy (or cheap) to get them. They will then turn their attention back to the rest of the market. As I write it already seems to be happening.

I will be looking to exit these speculative positions with at least a 10% return within the next 1 month. Maybe they will even fund my purchases of the KPLC rights. At least that's what I am hoping. But I have a Plan B for the damn rights!!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#15 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:21:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwanahisa wrote:
@SPT, I second your sentiments. Yesterday and today, I have been bargain hunting for my speculative portfolio and I managed some nice picks i.e. Equity Bank @25.25-25.50 (this one I could not believe), Coop @ 18.70 & 19, HF at 25.25 & 25.50 and KCB @ 20.75.

I am wagering that when the KPLC rights actually start trading guys may realise that it wont be so easy (or cheap) to get them. They will then turn their attention back to the rest of the market. As I write it already seems to be happening.

I will be looking to exit these speculative positions with at least a 10% return within the next 1 month. Maybe they will even fund my purchases of the KPLC rights. At least that's what I am hoping. But I have a Plan B for the damn rights!!

you are soo damn lucky on the picks! Those were extremely great bargains!On my part,managed Equity at 25.50, Co-op at 19, HF at 25.25 and KCB at 21.25, not as great a buys as yours!I'm looking at taking the plunge in Power at sub 22! If am lucky, i will, like you, be looking to get my 10% before i pack up for Christmas at 3pm Friday, Dec 24th!
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#16 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:26:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
And BTW, if you were keenly following the market today, you will have noticed the market staged a Great comeback in the dying sessions of trading,Co-op pulled up to 19.50, Equity touched a 26, HF bounced back almost immediately Equity took off!
And @Deal, no more bear run, its officially over, till Jan 2011!
No more sub 4,400 at NSE!!!
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:28:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
burgain hunters much?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:43:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i like some of your optimism but remember the NSE has become one of the most expensive frontier stock markets i.e EABL PE above 20, SCAN PE above 20, EQTY PE above 20...e.t.c...i think this bear is with us until reporting season i.e JAN-MARCH...i'm holding to what ever cash i have at the moment and wait for the bottom...
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 5:17:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
the deal wrote:
i like some of your optimism but remember the NSE has become one of the most expensive frontier stock markets i.e EABL PE above 20, SCAN PE above 20, EQTY PE above 20...e.t.c...i think this bear is with us until reporting season i.e JAN-MARCH...i'm holding to what ever cash i have at the moment and wait for the bottom...

You might be right, but know this, Dec is going to be a Great Month. Jan might and will be tricky esp if there's a mini bull run in Dec!
And by the way, if you use the Forward PE, esp for banks, all of them are below 20!
@SufficientlyP
guru267
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 5:51:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I now know that the reason K.P.L.C dropped like a bomb with such low volumes...

All the money directed at it is waiting for the rights on the N.S.E... I know I am...

I'm hoping to bid them up to 21.5 (2shillings premium) for my initial picking then i'll sit back and see how the market values them...

And guys you will not believe the volumes K.P.L.C rights will trade tomorrow... Too many of us are after G.O.K's rights.... smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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