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KPLC's Profit Before Tax to hit 7B by 2015
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:14:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I have just had a look at the presentation that the MD made on the launch of the rights issue on 26th November 2010.

This guy needs to go for lessons from JM of Equity and/or MJ of Safaricom on how to sell his company.

His target for PBT for KPLC is a "whopping"(sic) Kshs 7.0 B in 2015 from the current 5.632 B. This is a MERE 24% higher than the current status.

This is notwithstanding all other targeted metrics being much higher/better e.g. Sales of MW hours per employee, system losses, Total customers on the grid etc. Note, by 2015, he expects some additional 1,749 MW of capacity to have been added on.

So, what will he (they) be doing with the additional revenue? It looks like they are anticipating a huge increase in costs and/or overheads. Well, I guess it's going to be great being a KPLC employee. They should "brace" themselves for a huge increase in salaries/wages. Something is wrong here!

What do y'all think?
guru267
#2 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:25:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
I have just had a look at the presentation that the MD made on the launch of the rights issue on 26th November 2010.

This guy needs to go for lessons from JM of Equity and/or MJ of Safaricom on how to sell his company.

His target for PBT for KPLC is a "whopping"(sic) Kshs 7.0 B in 2015 from the current 5.632 B. This is a MERE 24% higher than the current status.

This is notwithstanding all other targeted metrics being much higher/better e.g. Sales of MW hours per employee, system losses, Total customers on the grid etc. Note, by 2015, he expects some additional 1,749 MW of capacity to have been added on.

So, what will he (they) be doing with the additional revenue? It looks like they are anticipating a huge increase in costs and/or overheads. Well, I guess it's going to be great being a KPLC employee. They should "brace" themselves for a huge increase in salaries/wages. Something is wrong here!

What do y'all think?


I thought his estimates were 20% increase in P.B.T by next year..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:31:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Are u sure he meant 7.0B by 2015? It could be that he meant next year, 2011!
If that's what he meant, we have no business waiting for 5 years to get 24%, which works out to a paltry 4.8% pa, not enough to take care of the time value of money!
@SufficientlyP
muganda
#4 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:40:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
@mwanahisa ditto; 7b profit before tax by 2015. Seems the new word in offers are FY forecasts and dare to dream!

Link: http://www.mediafire.com/?uur3rq4sc1cuy5x

mwanahisa
#5 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:42:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
This is in black and white on Pg 11 in his presentation with the page title - Key Success Measures. I just hope that this was a typo. Otherwise, it shows a serious lack of ambition. I have not yet seen the Information Memorandum. Once I do, I will be scouring it thoroughly to see whether it has the same crap! BTW, does anyone have the soft copy of the IM?
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#6 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 4:53:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
really hope it's a typo, otherwise.............
@SufficientlyP
mwanahisa
#7 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 5:08:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
muganda wrote:
@mwanahisa ditto; 7b profit before tax by 2015. Seems the new word in offers are FY forecasts and dare to dream!

Link: http://www.mediafire.com/?uur3rq4sc1cuy5x


@Muganda, meaning?

This can't even be a daydream.

If I was dreaming of KPLC, you can be sure it would be in realm of over 11 B in PBT by 2015 at the very least. CAGR in PBT over the last 5 years has been 18%, so we should expect it to be maintained or increased.

If 7B is Njoroge's dream, it can only be a nightmare for those of us who may be getting into KPLC!!!!

Maybe the IM should have a "caveat emptor" warning.
sheep
#8 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 7:40:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
circa 2017;KPLC breaks its 250 high(presplit) lol!!!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
alikujia
#9 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 8:43:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
Would also think it's an error. However, kplc is a parastatal and a profit-sensitive one to the public, so investors should always bear this in mind. highest PROFIT is not the ultimate goal of a parastatal. rather it is efficient affordable public service.
youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 8:48:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The government now wants to control everything. Stima, Mafuta, what next? They tried doing the same for unga and it backfired spectacularly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mwanahisa
#11 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 9:00:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
alikujia wrote:
Would also think it's an error. However, kplc is a parastatal and a profit-sensitive one to the public, so investors should always bear this in mind. highest PROFIT is not the ultimate goal of a parastatal. rather it is efficient affordable public service.


On another slide I have seen the projected PBT for 2010-11 is Kshs 6.061 B. That's an 7.6% increase. That implies that in the subsequent 4 years the increase in PBT will slow down to 15.5%. Why?

I accept that KPLC will be getting deeper into the clutches of GoK, and will therefore become less profit oriented. All the same , I can't help but think that the financial projections on these slides are off the mark. They are way out of sync with the other metrics.

Let's wait for the IM so that we can interrogate this further.
guru267
#12 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 9:09:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
G.O.K merely increased their stake from 44% to 50.1% simply to access cheap loans because it was being wondered why a private company was accessing cheap development loans...

If they had wanted to have a firm grip they would have taken up their rights and maintained its 70% holding it has currently
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Iborian
#13 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 9:26:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
This MD needs to go back to the drawing board. That PBT cannot be right.
Grand
#14 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 10:13:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 23
If YBC shouts are not mere bravado then there must be some hidden reason, YBC may not know it but a deeper analysis of this share might just reveal where the catch is. good work continue the analysis
PKoli
#15 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 10:22:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
mwanahisa wrote:
alikujia wrote:
Would also think it's an error. However, kplc is a parastatal and a profit-sensitive one to the public, so investors should always bear this in mind. highest PROFIT is not the ultimate goal of a parastatal. rather it is efficient affordable public service.


On another slide I have seen the projected PBT for 2010-11 is Kshs 6.061 B. That's an 7.6% increase. That implies that in the subsequent 4 years the increase in PBT will slow down to 15.5%. Why?

I accept that KPLC will be getting deeper into the clutches of GoK, and will therefore become less profit oriented. All the same , I can't help but think that the financial projections on these slides are off the mark. They are way out of sync with the other metrics.

Let's wait for the IM so that we can interrogate this further.



@Mwanahisa

The government had more control in KPLC when they had preferential shares that the scenario envisaged. In any case the government had always had control of the company from Gichuru's time to present. Like someone pointed, the essence of the gova having 50.1% shareholding is to enable KPLC access cheaper loans.
TUPAC
#16 Posted : Monday, November 29, 2010 11:36:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 274
Location: Ltktk
the Information Meorandum can now be downloaded @ www.kplc.co.ke
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
trizher
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:18:36 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 95
Location: Tikrit - IRAQ
TUPAC wrote:
the Information Meorandum can now be downloaded @ www.kplc.co.ke

.....leta complete link sir
...We do it for the $$$$!!
TUPAC
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:24:12 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 274
Location: Ltktk
@trizer am usin ma phone.it cant link. but on kplc.co.ke go to 'investor information' link na utaipata hapo. its only 3mb.
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:37:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
TUPAC wrote:
@trizer am usin ma phone.it cant link. but on kplc.co.ke go to 'investor information' link na utaipata hapo. its only 3mb.
@tupac - You don't need to babysit... Kwani, jamaa can't google or just go the website? [I did so after seeing your post]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:43:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
7B in 2015??? this is a joke...what was the CEO smoking??? charcoal or some greens...
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