@theDeal, tell us the Lowest price to expect on Tue 30, 2010.

What do you mean By PAT 2009 of 317B???

the main problem with kplc is the management aspect.....now with GOK having majority control kplc cant raise elec prices as they wish coz of lobbying by mpigs and businesses.....most likely the profitability of kplc will be sacrificed for the good of the kenyan economy....and then there is the aspect of appointment of cronies as directors and it will be eaten to the bone....thus goes the story of public utilities

hahaha sorry folks i mearnt 3.7 Billion PAT....divide that with 1.7 Billion new shares you get an EPS of 2.18...yes Madam Guru my price target is to modest but its due to the following reasons
1. KPLC is inefficient
2. All this lawsuits from this new meters
3. KPLC only posts record profits when everyone in Kenya is crying of high power bills

Jerry i cant tell u that i´m no fortune teller.

@Guru agreed i´m also now in the bandwagon for those who are looking to buy KPLC...after the dust has settled KPLC will rally...

SHEEP: You are a real sheep! Can't you see they can't eat too much becoz PLO is investigating lots of parastatal heads,most likely including KPLC?Kibaki will be appointing the Board Chairman and Odinga the CEO?After 2012...Odinga will appoint the Chairman,Ruto CEO,Kalonzo the internal auditor and Uhuru the Chief Accountant!!!

@ali baba, in this scheme of things, who will appoint the janitor? Muthutho?

@the deal, g267 and others, I would caution you not to be too bullish on the possible capital gains on KPLC.

As a utility with significant impact on the cost of doing business in Kenya, KPLC will be constrained on the extent that it can raise prices.

Over the last 5 years, Profit growth for KPLC has been 29.47% in 2006, 4.49% in 2007, 2.74% in 2008, 82.72% in 2009 and 15.22% in 2010. 2009 was an outlier with the heavy increase in tariffs, so I would discount it. From this trend, I think that it is too optimistic to expect KPLC to grow profits by 20% in 2011.

Even with the rights issue money, it will take some time for the new projects to come on stream and start contributing profits. My bet is that we will see 2011 growth matching 2010 and then accelerating to the 20% range in 2012 "ceteris paribus".

Based on this, I would expect 2011 EPS at 2.5 (15% increase on 2010). There will be many new shares bought cheap, especially assuming the premium on the GOK rights is insignificant. This will tend to prevent a rapid rise in the price of the share. In the first 3 months of the new shares being listed, I would therefore expect it to trade at a forward PE ratio of no more than 12 and more likely in the 10-11 range.

This will keep the price in the 25-27.50 range. This is still a 28% to 41% upside on the rights price with possibilities of over 50%, if it gets to the PER of 12. If H1 2011 results are very good this equation could of course change. After the 2011 results are released, I will expect a steady increase into the 30s on account of dividends etc.

@g267, we have debated why I do not feel it is appropriate to compare KenGen's PER to that of KPLC. So I will not go into that (at least not on this already too long post).

I therefore second the deal's recommendation but for me it is a good BUY (not a VERRY STRONG BUY.)

Not 1H but FY results...what happened to YBC?

He thinks it's half year because it's June