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Realities of Forex Investment
tonicasert
#541 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 1:39:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Seems after the holiday lull, its a cable and EUR selloff. Not sure of direction, just pip-raiding few pips per trade.
teletalk
#542 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 1:43:48 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/3/2010
Posts: 26
Location: Nairobi
Wazuanites,

Just want to say thanks for this thread tht ws started by one Ngaatu. As being a newbie in this kind of trading though ave heard about.

I thinking, for me will continue to read this thread and take net classes, to understand the fundamentals and everything for now before trying an managed account.
I could suggest that we have a link where at wazua for this trade.

Thanks ladies and gentlemen for sharing and teaching guys like us with no background/knowledge in trading.[/color]
hisah
#543 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 5:22:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
hisah wrote:
@ProverB - I hope you sold the EURUSD. Its working like a charm this week.



ya. Didn't expect it to touch .3584 though...fortunately hadn't put an exit target.. haven't closed on the trade yet.. 115pips at the moment.
what ur forecast?


If Ireland comes running for help next week or anytime soon, I expect the euro to sharply sell-off in a similar way to the May Greek crisis scare. This should also spook the global equity markets
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#544 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 8:38:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
If the AUDUSD closes today below 0.9813, that would increase a likelihood of a monthly reversal and increase aussie losses.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#545 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 8:15:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Seems USDJPY has indeed reversed to bullish. I was expecting an attempt to run through the 15yr lows lowest level 79.75, before a reversal. But the monthly formation is now turning neutral from bearish,while the weekly is turning bullish. Long order triggered @83.05, stop @82.40 target @84.50. I still expect 85 to be a major barrier for now. But once broken, 89 is next. Depending on how it handles the next 3 days, I'll determine if its long term or just a few days trade. The $ index also needs to get back above 79 to start moving $ trades. Above 80 will see more strength in the $.
USDCAD has successfully defended parity. Above 1.0210 will turn it up aiming 1.04xx.
Finally if the EURUSD gets back to 1.3850-1.3900, I'll be looking for sell that bounce rally.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
ProverB
#546 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 9:50:44 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
hisah wrote:

If Ireland comes running for help next week or anytime soon, I expect the euro to sharply sell-off in a similar way to the May Greek crisis scare. This should also spook the global equity markets


Progress on this front?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mlefu
#547 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 12:06:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
i have tried forex without anyformal training and lets say...DAMN...lost all my deposit in a flash....but thats a usual trend in business..

1:which are the most accurate indicators?
ngapat
#548 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 12:45:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
what a rise by the pound. my profits wiped and a loss booked.
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
tonicasert
#549 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 7:30:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
mlefu wrote:
i have tried forex without anyformal training and lets say...DAMN...lost all my deposit in a flash....but thats a usual trend in business..

1:which are the most accurate indicators?


Forex is tricky n needs alot of discipline and clear consience. I prefer using leading indicators, but there are days I also lose.

Try RSI (with a setting of 14), and Slow Stochastics (I have a 5,3,3 setting), and have a SMA 14 on the graph for the trend. The 2 former will give u turning points, and you can use on 5 mins, 15 mins, 30 mins, hourly or daily; and use the period depending on how short term or long term of a trader you are.

But importantly dont practise with your money, use demo.
The Merchant
#550 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 8:42:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Euro Falls Sharply on Irish Bond Concerns, Further Losses Likely

The Euro fell sharply against the US Dollar and other major currencies amidst fresh turmoil within the European Monetary Union. In a situation reminiscent of troubles leading to the Euro Zone/IMF bailout of Greece, it seems that markets are playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with sovereign debt markets and encouraging similar action for the debt-troubled Irish economy.

The Merchant
#551 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 8:54:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
ngapat wrote:
what a rise by the pound. my profits wiped and a loss booked.

Hey, the cable dropped over 200 pips today. Maybe you are trading on very little capital? If not you need to adjust your lot size. A big factor in winning this forex game is making sure you are properly capitalized. Reduce your lot size and increase your time frames then I hope your profits will soar. All the best ....smile
mlefu
#552 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 9:42:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
toni...ati demod'oh! ...i never got anywhere with that apart from uncontrolled excitement and i forgot to look at the real picture, developed an expert advisor and during the bp oil spill(eurusd was at 1.2***, from the demo account, i could make a clean $300 per hour, i went in to a massive saving discipline, came back when the eurusd was at 1.4*** and the expert just lost it all...NOW what if i had drunk all that..damn.
anyway..that was an investment..i am not giving up on this. ..lets check the indicators.
hisah
#553 Posted : Tuesday, November 16, 2010 9:54:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
hisah wrote:

If Ireland comes running for help next week or anytime soon, I expect the euro to sharply sell-off in a similar way to the May Greek crisis scare. This should also spook the global equity markets


Progress on this front?


Ireland is still delaying their song. The news headlines are still not too bearish, which means the announcement is due soon. The PIIGS CDS index is still aiming higher so that should indicate more distress for these nations when trying to sell bonds. I want to the EURUSD to take out 1.34, then we get a relief bounce before the next leg down. Note that the $ index is above 79 today which means $ strength ahead in coming weeks. I wonder if the $ will rally like it did last Nov. If it does, then Dec will be a selling month for global stocks.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
ngapat
#554 Posted : Wednesday, November 17, 2010 11:39:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
The Merchant wrote:
ngapat wrote:
what a rise by the pound. my profits wiped and a loss booked.

Hey, the cable dropped over 200 pips today. Maybe you are trading on very little capital? If not you need to adjust your lot size. A big factor in winning this forex game is making sure you are properly capitalized. Reduce your lot size and increase your time frames then I hope your profits will soar. All the best ....smile



the pound disappointed me yesterday. sold at 1.6036 nad placed a stoploss at 1.6080. then there was this spike that went for my stop loss and then prices fell by more than 200pips. i sold the euro/USD though and managed to recover the losses
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
hisah
#555 Posted : Wednesday, November 17, 2010 6:20:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ngapat wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
ngapat wrote:
what a rise by the pound. my profits wiped and a loss booked.

Hey, the cable dropped over 200 pips today. Maybe you are trading on very little capital? If not you need to adjust your lot size. A big factor in winning this forex game is making sure you are properly capitalized. Reduce your lot size and increase your time frames then I hope your profits will soar. All the best ....smile



the pound disappointed me yesterday. sold at 1.6036 nad placed a stoploss at 1.6080. then there was this spike that went for my stop loss and then prices fell by more than 200pips. i sold the euro/USD though and managed to recover the losses


I'm wondering between the euro and cable, which one will be hammered the most when Ireland pleads guilty. UK banks are the most exposed to Ireland's bad loans, but so is Germany and France when it comes to Spain and Portuguese bad loans. If a bailout is announced soon, wait for the spike high on both the euro and cable, and go short. I expect a repeat play of May 2010. Disclaimer - this is not investment advice smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
tonicasert
#556 Posted : Wednesday, November 17, 2010 7:26:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
I'm thinking the Ireland issues have been discounted, n when the bailout finally happens (Ireland is denying they need help at the moment), I think Euro may spike higher as a vote of confidence. I'm bullish on this announcement, but not to much of a rally, possibly 1.4200?... I could be wrong, its anyone's guess
hisah
#557 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:42:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Closing the EURUSD short here - 320pips in the bag. The weekend bailout news played into the expected early asia spike. May 2010 is repeating itself with the euro which is good for $ strength.
Now hunting for Aussie shorts since the China rate hikes last week are bearish for aussie. Of interest is AUDUSD, AUDCAD and AUDNZD. I'll post my positions when I establish them. So far I'm still holding to USDJPY and I've now upgraded it to a weekly play. But its a dinosaur, hardly moving since last week. USDCHF still working out for some weeks now - aiming 1.05s. USDCAD is still struggling to hold on above 1.02s. Above 1.0250, I'll be long aiming 1.04 then 1.06.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
ngapat
#558 Posted : Tuesday, November 23, 2010 7:38:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
@hisah, you wish u didn't close
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
ndumesidubu
#559 Posted : Tuesday, November 30, 2010 4:20:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/31/2010
Posts: 11
Location: nairobi
just a word of caution to those those trading fx,after thanksgiving every year i have noticed that liquidity reduces heavily and therefore causing a lot of ranging thus whipsaws, in the early years i experienced most losses in this last two months of the year, i have therefore found it prudent to wait it out until the big boys return around second week of january, if you have to trade then do so cautiously but by all means shut off those expert advisors, give those stoplosses some slag from supports and resistances, i spend most of my time in this period developing new strategies and automating them plus a lot of relaxation.
"Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process."
Benjamin Graham
Rabin
#560 Posted : Wednesday, December 01, 2010 9:49:04 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 11/11/2010
Posts: 4
Location: Nairobi
I want to start trading with real a/c i have been doing it with demo a/c is there any limitations by our banks (equity,kcb)for one to get a visa card advice
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