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Kplc restructure plan out
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guru267
#181 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 7:34:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
There is one problem I have with guys buying KPLC at these levels of 225...

Conservative investment bankers have valued this stock at 240 so if you buy at 225 and take up the rights at 156 you're average buy price is 209 giving you a maximum 12% upside in the short term

so I really hope guys are not taking loans to buy shares and rights because things might not go so well...

And by the way KPLC wasted time getting an underwriter because these shares will be oversubscribed by us smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#182 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 9:30:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,218
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
There is one problem I have with guys buying KPLC at these levels of 225...

Conservative investment bankers have valued this stock at 240 so if you buy at 225 and take up the rights at 156 you're average buy price is 209 giving you a maximum 12% upside in the short term

so I really hope guys are not taking loans to buy shares and rights because things might not go so well...

And by the way KPLC wasted time getting an underwriter because these shares will be oversubscribed by us smile
What? Only 240/-? I have revised my number to 300/- [since the rains are falling a-plenty + lots of new projects] So IMHO, borrowing is a-ok in this case...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#183 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 9:40:07 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
What? Only 240/-? I have revised my number to 300/- [since the rains are falling a-plenty + lots of new projects] So IMHO, borrowing is a-ok in this case...


@VVS that's why I said they were conservative valuations...I know this rain will do wonders for the power supply but At 300 you'll give KPLC a trailing P/E of 17.6 which is pretty high to peg a loan against...

When borrowing for a stock purchase one has to be very conservative in hers/his valuations in order to mitigate against a worst case scenario....

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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BGL
#184 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 9:42:41 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
Lakini this formula of theirs (KPLC rights) will create so many odd lots which are very difficult to sell. Why the hell not do 20 shares for every 50 instead of 51...... there would have been less odd lots created.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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VituVingiSana
#185 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 10:04:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
What? Only 240/-? I have revised my number to 300/- [since the rains are falling a-plenty + lots of new projects] So IMHO, borrowing is a-ok in this case...


@VVS that's why I said they were conservative valuations...I know this rain will do wonders for the power supply but At 300 you'll give KPLC a trailing P/E of 17.6 which is pretty high to peg a loan against...

When borrowing for a stock purchase one has to be very conservative in hers/his valuations in order to mitigate against a worst case scenario..
Trailing PER is history... I expect at least 25%+ growth in PAT... But send me your calculations...

[I look at a 12-18 month window which will give KPLC the opportunity to deploy the cash]


Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#186 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 10:56:53 PM
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Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Trailing PER is history... I expect at least 25%+ growth in PAT... But send me your calculations...

[I look at a 12-18 month window which will give KPLC the opportunity to deploy the cash]


@VVS believe me I share your sentiments about the 2011 profitability all the way...

But if one buys now at 225 and gets rights at 156 the average buy would be 209. So even then 300 bob would only be a 43% rise and with an 18% interest on the loan this return will fall to a mere 25% which is not even guaranteed...

@VVS i think you are speaking from the perspective of an investor whose average buy price is below 200 in which case a loan for the rights would be viable
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#187 Posted : Saturday, November 20, 2010 11:00:53 PM
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Location: Nairobi
BGL wrote:
Lakini this formula of theirs (KPLC rights) will create so many odd lots which are very difficult to sell. Why the hell not do 20 shares for every 50 instead of 51...... there would have been less odd lots created.


@BGL i heard this was a ploy to trap speculators to prevent them from selling their stock and messing up the share price... smile

But since I'm in for the long haul I'm pretty surer future splits, bonuses, and rights will reduce my odd lots
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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kyt
#188 Posted : Sunday, November 21, 2010 2:20:10 AM
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Joined: 11/7/2007
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@vvs, this guys may set a 20% interest. And that will not impress me.
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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gatoho
#189 Posted : Sunday, November 21, 2010 2:54:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
guru267 wrote:
gatoho wrote:
Questions questions questions... @ BGL hats off for that price prediction ages ago. Aint this rights issue limited to current shareholders cos i see no ratios. 2. Do I have to buy a few to get in or its IPO style.. I wanna get in but have no idea how to cos have ZERO kplc.. @VVS need your guidance! And Oh I see Stockmaster here


@gatoho if you get in and buy kplc shares on the market between now and friday you will be eligible for the rights which will equal to about 40% of the shares you buy...




Thanks Guru.. 1st thing Monday morning!
Foresight..
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sparkly
#190 Posted : Sunday, November 21, 2010 7:31:54 AM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
guru267 wrote:
On such a rights issue there is no possibility of an undersubscription...


@guru till now i kick myself for assuming that all TPS shareholders would take up their rights and it would have been pointless to apply for more shares at 48. You never know
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Sober
#191 Posted : Sunday, November 21, 2010 8:10:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
guru267 wrote:
gatoho wrote:
Questions questions questions... @ BGL hats off for that price prediction ages ago. Aint this rights issue limited to current shareholders cos i see no ratios. 2. Do I have to buy a few to get in or its IPO style.. I wanna get in but have no idea how to cos have ZERO kplc.. @VVS need your guidance! And Oh I see Stockmaster here


@gatoho if you get in and buy kplc shares on the market between now and friday you will be eligible for the rights which will equal to about 40% of the shares you buy...





Yes. the ratio is there, It is 20 for every 51 held (to quote the prospectus) this is after the 8 :1 split remember.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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VituVingiSana
#192 Posted : Sunday, November 21, 2010 2:40:04 PM
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sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
On such a rights issue there is no possibility of an undersubscription...


@guru till now i kick myself for assuming that all TPS shareholders would take up their rights and it would have been pointless to apply for more shares at 48. You never know
The additional allocation was minimal... The smart guys bought Rights!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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My 2 cents
#193 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:28:44 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
I am really liking this 30/= post split. I LIKE.
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Sober
#194 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:47:24 AM
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HE HE HE! equivalent of 240 pre split.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Sober
#195 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:50:53 AM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
it should be depicted as 6.66% rise in share price and not 86.7% drop. the software is programmed to compute the previous trading share price, anyway.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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mwanahisa
#196 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:52:25 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
My 2 cents wrote:
I am really liking this 30/= post split. I LIKE.


I don't think this will last long. Prepare for the share to come down to the 27 - 30 range cum-rights and sub 25 after going ex-rights.

NB* Split shares have NOT been credited as yet. Guys are just trading the 1/8th currently available.
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Wiztec
#197 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:56:19 AM
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Joined: 10/22/2008
Posts: 87
oops this silly share should come down to 20 asap, i have just placed an order of 25 i hope i will get b4 friday.
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Sober
#198 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 10:56:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
mwanahisa wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
I am really liking this 30/= post split. I LIKE.


I don't think this will last long. Prepare for the share to come down to the 27 - 30 range cum-rights and sub 25 after going ex-rights.

NB* Split shares have NOT been credited as yet. Guys are just trading the 1/8th currently available.


true. the share has been trading between 27.25 and 30.00. trying to find a stable position.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Aguytrying
#199 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 11:21:05 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Next time there's a split, iVe seen a loophole. there's a temporary confusion on some in some investors minds and hence, just after the split i can make money!!! No one was willing to pay 230 on friday, today some are buying it at 240!! Equivalent ie 30. mmmhhh
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#200 Posted : Monday, November 22, 2010 11:25:29 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
While listening to the radio today, i heard a very patriotic song. I was sure it was a national unity one or such like. Only for it to end (took the best part of 2 mins), and it was a kplc advert! cracked me up, i like.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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