Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom Half Year 2010/2011 results review
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
|
guru267 wrote:guru267 wrote:
@2012 i think you're abit to pessimistic... Price wars have been going on for only a month and last year they announced 9.8billion PBT...
I was expecting 12 but i'm sure we'll get 10.8billion....
Though the second half is what we should be most worried about...
I fished out this prediction so that you'll see its the 2ND HALF you should be worried about NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THESE RESULTS AT ALL... Before the price wars I was expecting a H1 PBT of 12 billion after the price wars began I revised this target to 10.8 billion and then they go ahead and give me ONLY 10.4 billionAll the guys praising these results should know they are in line with expectations of safcom pessimists like me.... I have to give it up to you on that one. I honestly never saw it happening. That said, I don't think they'll pull it off that easily this second half. What's your say?
BBI will solve it :)
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
|
Safcom customer growth picked again end september to about 18k new customers per day, others dropped after august early september gains at onset of price wars. Fy results will be good, never mind what crystal ball analyst say Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
mlennyma wrote:And i want you to get me clear here,the 1.6 market share loss is not to zain,but to deaths,pple becoming bunkrupt,orange and yu the rest. @mlennyma I think you know market share for voice is measured by number of active sim cards right??? So if I bought a zain,YU,Orange line it doesnt mean my safcom line becomes inactive does it immediately... Infact it remains active for around 6months after use is discontinued and the price wars began barely 2months before the Half year end. And yet safcom still managed to record a loss of 1.6% market share... When the sim cards that were dumped finally go inactive maybe a better picture will be seen  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
Hahahaha @Guru what are u smoking?
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 7/31/2007 Posts: 341
|
@guru, the long and short of it is that the zain initiated tariff wars have failed to ignite the sort of mass migration that they had projected, even with your 6 month theory. At 18k new customers PER DAY, safcom is proving to be like the proverbial mugumo tree versus the razor blade...
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
the deal wrote:Hahahaha @Guru what are u smoking? Very nice green leaves/grass VERY NICE.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,906
|
Prepaid subscribers churn if they have not made or received a chargeable event for 120 days from the date of airtime expiry.
Results show increase in churn from 27.6% to 31.2%
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/18/2008 Posts: 796
|
muganda wrote:@guru267, tough direct lady... Ökay so my expectations were worse off especially after reading Bharti's results earlier today, which were definitely below expectations. Did you see? @mozenrat, your comment reminds me of a post I saw alleging KDN is facing wind-up over Kes 1 billion debt owed to the guy who maintains their cables, Soliton Telme, hence poor response whenever anything goes assunder. http://nairobitech.blogs...lion-debt.html?spref=tw
I guess Orange are in trouble then... The cables cut apparently belong to them.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
|
For smaller players, i believe its deal or die, (cede to price fixing) they are loosing money and customers, its also the most opportune time for vodafone to offer gova a price for majority shareholding, an extra 10% stake at 5.50/- maybe Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/18/2008 Posts: 796
|
Much Know wrote:
its also the most opportune time for vodafone to offer gova a price for majority shareholding, an extra 10% stake at 5.50/- maybe
God forbid.. hebu tema hayo mate... You can imagine having the KEBs-like squabbles in Safaricom.. May it never happen.. Ptuh..
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
Investors should note that although safcom's 2010 H1 profits of 10.5billion are better than H1 2009 of 9.8billion they are worse than H2 2009 which was 11.1 billion and this was with only one month of price wars and with massive growth in their MPESa and data segments for the period under review. This proves my point that they will continue to rely on voice revenues for some time.... It should also be noted that Their ARPU is down 13% with only 1 month of price wars for the period under review... To me these are key pointers to H2 results but since I know many investors will take these results at face value this stock will probably rally in the short term... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
|
What an anticlimax for critics. pple were expecting a considerable drop in its profit now that it has actually declared an increase thats not news.for instance most Tv station did not report the result on their 7pm news, but if it had declared a drop in its earnings am sure it would have been breaking News. Even they had the guts to say analyst are waiting to see the full year result to see the impact of the price war.Why not analyse the released result first instead of waiting for another six months to give us another analysis of how the following year will affect the company. To give Zain credit they hav tried alot to wrestle approx. 4% of safaricoms market share.Bob collymore should watch out for another gorrila tactics from this company which I believe is in the offing '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,075
|
H1 results should be compared with H1 results. Oranges against oranges. I wonder what kind off defenses safcoms critics will come up with when full year results are announced next year. Like I said when the price wars started; when all is said and done, at the end of this year nothing will have changed. Safcom will still be a very profitable market leader. Airtel/Zain/Bharti/Kencell have systematic weaknesses that make them losses year in year out. In this and now their own home market.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
|
Even if it comes a time when saf makes 10b full year profits after tax,this is good income...i think no bank in kenya dares reaching this profits. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,075
|
mlennyma wrote:Even if it comes a time when saf makes 10b full year profits after tax,this is good income...i think no bank in kenya dares reaching this profits. BBK will make more than 9B in 2010. H1 results were 4.7B
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
|
Is 9b equal to 10b? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
|
It is important to look at a share price not just the business environment. Price wars do not form an absolute tool for the measurement of a shares value. Its current market price also does not reflect its intrinsic value. Expecting a decline of the price on the basis of price wars is to miss the point by hundreds of kilometers. This share was issued at 5.50/-, after an extensive valuation process, at a PAT of 15 bill, with much fewer assets hence NAV than it is currently at and was oversubscribed 3 times, meaning it still had upswing, save for the financial crisis, this share would be way up. This is probably the most battered stock on the NSE due to a lot of amateur hype. Meru Holiness
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
|
Okay for now tuko juu juu full year profit will drop from 20.9b to around 19-20b which is the best in east and central africa. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,075
|
mlennyma wrote:Is 9b equal to 10b? Where in my statement did I say 10 B = 9 B
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
|
You know Safaricom is making these profits off you... LOL... I have no Safaricom shares thus I can't be bothered except hoping Zain-Airtel keep up the price war so I enjoy more shillings in my pocket... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom Half Year 2010/2011 results review
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|