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Mumias leaves a bad taste in investors mouths
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,075
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Go easy on the dude, he is only 25.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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I have mumias but dont regret it...lets assume you bought 1000 shares of mumias @ 13.50 you bought 1000 again today @ 9.85 if you do cost average itakushukishia price ya 13.5 to 11.6 The more you buy when going down, the better for you. Please stop wallowing....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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lovely2010 wrote:I have mumias but dont regret it...lets assume you bought 1000 shares of mumias @ 13.50 you bought 1000 again today @ 9.85 if you do cost average itakushukishia price ya 13.5 to 11.6 The more you buy when going down, the better for you. Please stop wallowing.... it depends on how long you want to hold your shares and have your money held up. This one could be a year or who knows. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/18/2007 Posts: 217
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So long as it keeps paying dividend hold long as one can.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/13/2010 Posts: 85 Location: Nairobi
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Its a scary1, it might be a buy under 9 but theres alot of uncertainty surrounding its future. it would take some1 with big cahones to touch this1.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I agree. Go easy @QW, we are all here to learn. There's no trader/investor that doesn't make a bad call at some point. The worst that could happen is we learn nothing from these episodes.
@the deal - for a contrarian play MSC is quite risky having broken below 10. I had stated sometime back there was a possibility 10.xx price order could be filled after it broke below the trendline at 13.50 and breach the 12/- support level before a bounce. That was a clear warning since btw 10.20 & 12 price zone, there was an air pocket (no strong support level). The steep dive below 10 is overextended, but warns for further losses towards 8.40 esp with ex div effect. Too risky to catch a falling knife for a major risk reward potential play. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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wote wrote:So long as it keeps paying dividend hold long as one can. .. ??? ..you'd rather lose out on capital appreciatin cycles for miserly dividends? hisah wrote:I agree. Go easy @QW, we are all here to learn. There's no trader/investor that doesn't make a bad call at some point. The worst that could happen is we learn nothing from these episodes. ...that would be fine if the bad calls were fewer..and spaced out..and u didn't call everyone else a fool for disagreeing with ur sentiments..and you didn't "think u are too good to learn" from people here. ..i'm just saying. hisah wrote:
@the deal - for a contrarian play MSC is quite risky having broken below 10. I had stated sometime back there was a possibility 10.xx price order could be filled after it broke below the trendline at 13.50 and breach the 12/- support level before a bounce. That was a clear warning since btw 10.20 & 12 price zone, there was an air pocket (no strong support level). The steep dive below 10 is overextended, but warns for further losses towards 8.40 esp with ex div effect. Too risky to catch a falling knife for a major risk reward potential play.
..on this.. I agree. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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More blood needed.below 9 get in big time "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/24/2010 Posts: 238 Location: nairobi
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X13united wrote:Av been waitin for such a topic n voila! Someone had it in mind too. Fridays n sundays post in standard newspaper must have been a post dividend bait,just to lure more blood to paint the whole street. I admit that am in msc big time. Readers advice: post encouraging details the likes of sh7 n sh8 may simply send me to my casket before due time. All said n done-am waitin for my dividend,i hope it wil last me til we ressurect. I rest my case your honor. @x13, You are not alone, you make me laugh and at the same time sympathize, all the gains i have made for the last two months in other counters have been eaten up by this sweet turned bitter thing. I understand the decision now to either hold, sell, or buy is difficult, status quo could be the option and wait for nature to take its course. Also rest my case your honor.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The divergence between global sugar prices n MSC is worth noting...as long as the sugar prices r sky high no Comesa sugar will come this sides...i will look at the charts and spot an entry point.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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Mumias is giving people a bloody nose. Ikienda below 9 that will be a KO. Referee is counting 1.. 2.. 3... Mumias itaamka ama this is game over?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:More blood needed.below 9 get in big time  ....Go son.I am not a prophet but my estimate is that they will miss first half targets by close to 15K tonnes.What would that do to PBT? Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@Njung'e - you are the expert on this one. Do tell us what you reckon to be the impact. What are their targets for H1 sugar production? Are they above last year's actuals?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@Mwanahisa, The answer is as above and i am thinking it's even possible to calculate a close estimate of PBT.....what was the figure for last FY first half? Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/28/2007 Posts: 38
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very strange behaviour by the share price whats going on ANYONE ??? UN PACTUM UN DICTUM
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/22/2008 Posts: 87
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Annoying share indeed, i have about 56700 of MSC shares bought at 9 bob, should i sell off now and take off or waite till march? what do you guys think...well i was waiting to sell off at 18 crap but you know the story.. i watched it go past 15 and i was so happy and now...hahaha may be i just waitye alittle longer
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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The price movement (once you remove the dividend bit) doesn't make sense unless things are that dire. Sugar prices are at a record high which means Mumias should be passing on some of this to chai drinkers The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Wa_ithaka wrote:The price movement (once you remove the dividend bit) doesn't make sense unless things are that dire.
@Wa_ithaka things are that dire... Investors buy a share based on its ability ti grow EPS... At the moment I dont see which investor could see MSC growing its earnings... Infact over the next three years i see MSC's EPS either stagnating or reducing... Since they said that they would raise Half of the capital for the ethanol prject through equity then investors must be speculating a rights issue in the offing... I would only put in a buy order for this compnay if it went to 8 shillings or below for the long term because of the dividend yield but no other reason Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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@njunge - For MSC, being 'short' 15k tons shouldn't be a huge dent in revenues or earnings but still not a good sign unless the target was very high... The bigger question is about 2012 when the COMESA safeguard are lifted... Can Mumias compete? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Njung'e wrote:@Mwanahisa,
The answer is as above and i am thinking it's even possible to calculate a close estimate of PBT.....what was the figure for last FY first half? Njung'e, please stop being cryptic and give us the target figures. This will enable us all make a better informed decision. I have to say you sound decidedly bearish, so, I guess that's a warning to all of us. As for last year (H1 2009-10), MSC produced 123,183 tonnes, 18% higher than the previous corresponding half while sales were 117,081 tonnes against 109,538, a 7% jump.
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