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Realities of Forex Investment
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hisah
#531 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 10:59:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
$600B stimulus is a flat. I'll continue to buy the $ as I expect equities to come off since this is already priced in.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#532 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 10:28:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I can see another a major buy opportunity on the USDJPY. To make it better, I hope it can break the all time 15yr low at 79.75 before Bank of Japan panics and kills off the sellers with a huge intervention. I'd expect BoJ to intervene since the major exporters will incur losses from expensive export sales which will slow demand for Japanese products. An expensive yen will also worsen the deflation Japan is experiencing.
And anyway exchange intervention is now back in fashion Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, November 08, 2010 10:31 PM | Reason: Not specified
mwanafunzi
#533 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 4:58:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/3/2008
Posts: 113
my pip friends.help me out here.i want to plunge into this market.am starting small.which brokers are you working with.how about funding my account,what are the best possible ways.thanks
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ProverB
#534 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 10:27:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Opinion on Euro/Dollar?
short euro or long? Noticed German figures were below expectation.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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hisah
#535 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 11:46:21 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
Opinion on Euro/Dollar?
short euro or long? Noticed German figures were below expectation.


I'm a Euro bear (looming eurozone defaults - I'm watching Ireland bond rates spike up every week) so that is a short for me. The fed has also fried the $ with the latest hopeless $500B stimulus. But based on the number of eurozone countries sitting on a ticking near term debt bomb, I'd rather be short the EURUSD. Also based on sentiments the Euro bulls are too many while the $ bears are too many. Trading the sentiment inverse is therefore more profitable.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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ProverB
#536 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 11:53:34 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
hisah wrote:

Also based on sentiments the Euro bulls are too many while the $ bears are too many. Trading the sentiment inverse is therefore more profitable.


??
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Domokaya
#537 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 2:36:12 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/5/2010
Posts: 12
i just love the cable!!!!!!!!!!
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hisah
#538 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 9:59:14 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
hisah wrote:

Also based on sentiments the Euro bulls are too many while the $ bears are too many. Trading the sentiment inverse is therefore more profitable.


??


I mean buy the $ and sell the euro. The aussie too has a lot of bulls, but the australia fundamentals cannot be compared to the crack house called eurozone on a debt bomb countdown. The best $ play is the USDJPY since i expect the BoJ to initiate another massive intervention before end of this month.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#539 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 8:18:26 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@ProverB - I hope you sold the EURUSD. Its working like a charm this week. Since there is a G20 meeting today, I'll take profit on one position and move the stoploss to breakeven (1.3840). I want to avoid a loss on a spike high after the G20 meeting announcement over the weekend. My target for this position is 1.3420. If the $ index can reclaim the 79 level today, that would boost this position which means equities will sell some together with commodities on $ strengthening.

Domokaya - I was on cable too selling EURGBP. Profit limit hit @ .8510 from .8685. I had stated in this post sometime in Oct that if EURGBP fails to clear .8840 (intersection of monthly longterm failing trendline & horizontal resistance) and hold above .8700, risks were down to .8540. The target has already been surpassed to the .84s. Sidelined for now, but might jump today on GBPNZD - small long position.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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ProverB
#540 Posted : Friday, November 12, 2010 12:34:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
hisah wrote:
@ProverB - I hope you sold the EURUSD. Its working like a charm this week.



ya. Didn't expect it to touch .3584 though...fortunately hadn't put an exit target.. haven't closed on the trade yet.. 115pips at the moment.
what ur forecast?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 12, 2010 12:36 PM | Reason: Not specified
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