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Hass Consult Q3 2010 Property Index
Scubidu
#11 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 8:03:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa. good analysis. why don't you do some sort of survey. Maybe ask the guys on wazua to give you rents and prices for the areas where they live. It would give you a wealth of information. But I love the initiative Hass has taken. I wish many more developers would collaborate with them.

As muganda said if you can calculate returns or rental yields you can see things really changing, more transparency, identify the bubbles. Would a fund manager or insurance firms be interested in such info, I think they would. Everyday Kenyan's savings are heading away from financial assets into these kind of assets, real estate, but you're right the info has to be more comprehensive.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kadonye
#12 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 8:17:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/30/2009
Posts: 1,390
@scubidu, if mwanahisa did his wazua survey,it would have issues also.How many wazuans live in Karen?How many reside in Huruma?After looking at the report, I believe Hass made the specifics of the report clear when they specified that it was for middle n upper class housing.The issue here is how to define 'middle class' and 'upper class'
What a wicked man I am!The things I want to do,I don't do.The things I don't want to do I find myself doing
hisah
#13 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 8:33:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The summary title is the clincher - "Property market rides despite developers' oversupply of large apartments."

Oversupply of large apartments in the leafy suburbs while a scarcity in the low class areas. I wish there was a way of knowing which banks have backed the loans for these oversupplied large apartments. Doesn't this present a compelling case for a default scenario on these property without occupancy or buyers?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#14 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 9:26:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@kadonye. You'd be surprized where people live. Ive lived in Karen for practically my whole life, until recently. The point is someone knows someone else who lives somewhere else. If one wants to question the accuracy of the Hass report why not just get guys to post samples from their neighbourhoods on wazua...all hypothetical, you don't actually have to live there...wazua already has a fantasy game based on price movements alone, no disclosure on amounts required. Off course the alternative is to not know what's going on and just buy property by flipping a coin.

@hisah. you've got a point they cud be sitting on huge finance costs, at least this is what a contact tells me... though I think the context at the time was wrt non residential property...humm worth looking into.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Iborian
#15 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 12:34:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
It is a good effort by Hass Consult. And who is to begrudge them for milking it for all its worth. The publicity they get is worth tons of marketing exposure.

The folks at the Kenya Bureau of Statistics should take this up. I believe they have the mandate if not the resources.
Sasha
#16 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 2:04:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/5/2007
Posts: 627
Was hoping I would get info on Nakuru properties. Have some interest there. Any one with any info?
the sage
#17 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 10:33:32 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/20/2008
Posts: 367
@All, is there an index that measures actual rent paid as opposed to what is advertised?
Toshi
#18 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 10:59:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/11/2009
Posts: 38
@mwanahisa & scubidoo, thanks for sharing this. I have tried accessing the report but Hass Consult's site is down. I kindly request anyone who may have it so share it with me at mr.biz@solution4u.com
The property boom is of concern to me though; methinks realestate in Kenya right now is like fighting for a seat in the titanic; give it 6 years to sink, maybe? The guru said it himself, "fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"; there's only so much the market can rise..
Possession of material riches, without inner peace, is like dying of thirst while bathing in a lake.
Djinn
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 11:16:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
Sasha wrote:
I've gone through the report and I have to agree with mwanahisa and muganda. It is not representative of the countrywide figures as alluded.

But I think HassConsult are onto something big here. They will definately need to collaborate with other developers and agents to collate this info into something worth investing in. Considering the dearth of info on real estate, I believe there are many people, me included who would be willing to part with some Kshs to access this info!

I see the average rent for Kitengela is higher than for South C! Really?


@Sasha and also Mwanahisa - you both think the figures for Buru Buru and South C are unjustifiably lower than Kitengela (or Thika). If these are average figures, from an SQ/bedsitter to a maisonnet (or even a grand mansion like we sometimes see in Thika or Kitengela), then I would agree. Areas like Thika town and Kitengela are mainly (not exclusively) for the driving working class who mostly commute to Nairobi - these areas are not littered with bedsitters/SQs for rent and typically sit on more than an eighth an acre vis a vis the smaller plots in Buru and South B which, owing to landlords building extensions and letting out, house small dwellings whose rent brings down the average. I agree Kitengela and Thika also have small houses but not as many bedsitters/SQs being leased.

If you take a typical 4 bedroom in South C - attracting rent of 40-45k (or Buru at 35-40k) - then add it to an SQ/Bedsitter attracting 5-8k, then we see the math getting distorted. Then look at the density (the number to derive the average) and it gets even worse.

So, in Kitengela/Thika, there are fewer dwellings per square kilometre. And lets remember Kitengela and Thika are whole towns whereas South C and Buru Buru are estates.
Seles83
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 12:08:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/9/2007
Posts: 288
Location: OZ
Kenya is a lucrative country to invest in..very high ROI. The property market is far from any collapse but stagnation is bound to be happen..

The real kicker that hurts so much is that most houses are targeted at middle class (Middle & Upper). The Real opportunity will be when mortagages will be available for middle lower ( mortagage product tailors for guys earning a net 35k and above).

Trust me those days are coming..you dont wanna be caught standing..aside..

Happy hunting..
More monies, more problems...
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