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An unpleasant surprise from JUBILEE!!!???
guru267
#1 Posted : Saturday, October 30, 2010 6:32:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
We all know Jubilee will produce stellar results from its operations this year but I am wondering about something...

Since it owns big chunks of KPLC and TPS which have both held sizeable rights issues wont this impact greatly on their profits for 2010 by participating in these rights issues as they have???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#2 Posted : Saturday, October 30, 2010 8:42:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Not quite. If they take up their rights, that will only affect dividends, not profits.... and that is good for the company
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
the deal
#3 Posted : Saturday, October 30, 2010 8:52:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I agree with @Mukiha it might be one of the reasons they paid the paltry interim 1 bob dividend...the rights for TPS where going for around 55 bob today the price is at 68 thats more than 20% capital gains...did u know that they also own 0.62% of KQ?
Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Saturday, October 30, 2010 10:16:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040


Could they use retained earnings to participate in rights issues.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 3:05:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,275
Location: Nairobi
They are making an INVESTMENT... so they are OK... It is good for Jubilee to add to their positions in KPLC [& they have added to their positions in TPS]...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#6 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 10:01:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
guru267 wrote:
We all know Jubilee will produce stellar results from its operations this year but I am wondering about something...

Since it owns big chunks of KPLC and TPS which have both held sizeable rights issues wont this impact greatly on their profits for 2010 by participating in these rights issues as they have???


Oh ye of little faith.

Since when did investment affect operating profits?

As of 30th June 2010, Jubilee had an amount of over 5 billion (Yes, you "heard" that right, 5 billion) shillings in deposits with Financial Institutions. As such, they had more than enough cheddar to pay for all the rights they need to take up.

Of course some of this is required to meet their obligations under insurance contracts but 5B is more than enough.

While one could argue, that using this money on rights has an opportunity cost, I think that's hardly the case. Case in point, Jubilee paid Kshs 48 for its TPS rights. They are now valued at nearly Kshs 70. That's almost a 50% increase in value, while the deposits were probably earning <10% interest p.a.. We should be celebrating!! Actually, I am, while I add to my position in Jubilee.

VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 10:58:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,275
Location: Nairobi
AKFED has a huge interest in Bujagali... So using Jubilee for a significant stake in KPLC would not be surprising...

If Jubilee has KES 5bn in cash... then just 4 Insurance firms cab buy all the KPLC shares...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#8 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 1:30:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
VituVingiSana wrote:
AKFED has a huge interest in Bujagali... So using Jubilee for a significant stake in KPLC would not be surprising...

If Jubilee has KES 5bn in cash... then just 4 Insurance firms cab buy all the KPLC shares...


Luckily for those eyeing KPLC rights, not too many insurance companies have that kind of might.

You do however raise an issue which could jeopardise many of our plans for acquiring the KPLC rights. If most institutions decide to go big on the KPLC rights, 10 B may soon look like small change. Who remembers how much Safaricom raised -over 200B if my memory serves me right? A 10th of that figure is already scary!

Another thing. Institutions are nowadays allowed to pay in their money after allocation. They therefore do not have to worry about their funds lying idle for too long.
guru267
#9 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 5:55:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
so from the responses it looks like the only thing affected is the cashflow and hence probably this years dividends...

Well since I have nothing to worry about I'll go on slowly increasing my stake in this gem... smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#10 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 6:54:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Jub has 17m shares of DTB. DTB was at 89.50 as at dec 2009. Right now it's at 135.

135-90= 45

45*17m=765m in fair value gains which will be reflected on P&L.

Divide 765/ 50m shares and u get kshs. 15.1 per share of fair value gains just from DTB. I worked out and thus far, fair value gains on Jub investments are at about 1.2B. Let's be conservative and assume this figure to be 1B and also assume that the share prices move sideways for quoted stocks. Divide by 50m shares and that's 20bob per share. Add 15 bob for their other income(from ops and investment income aka rent, bonds etc) and you are lokking at 35 bob minimum eps.
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 7:54:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,275
Location: Nairobi
Add TPSEA gains as well...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#12 Posted : Sunday, October 31, 2010 10:10:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
value, deep pockets, continuously ameliorating assets (shares). Jubilee is looking really good this year. Cant wait to see FY results.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwanahisa
#13 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 11:54:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Horton wrote:
Jub has 17m shares of DTB. DTB was at 89.50 as at dec 2009. Right now it's at 135.

135-90= 45

45*17m=765m in fair value gains which will be reflected on P&L.

Divide 765/ 50m shares and u get kshs. 15.1 per share of fair value gains just from DTB. I worked out and thus far, fair value gains on Jub investments are at about 1.2B. Let's be conservative and assume this figure to be 1B and also assume that the share prices move sideways for quoted stocks. Divide by 50m shares and that's 20bob per share. Add 15 bob for their other income(from ops and investment income aka rent, bonds etc) and you are lokking at 35 bob minimum eps.


Horton, I think you are being too optimistic. As you may know it is such high expectations that cause share price to fall when they are not met even when results are VERY good.

Not all fair value gains go to the P&L. Some of them are dealt with through reserves. If you look at the Jubilee 2008 and 2009 annual results, you will note when share prices for their portfolio fell, some of them were dealt with in that way, thus cushioning the Net profits from falling as much as they would have.

I am pegging Jubilee's EPS for 2010 at between 20 - 25. I am yet to work out a more precise figure, but I think it would be wise to temper your expectations.
guru267
#14 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 12:05:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
Jub has 17m shares of DTB. DTB was at 89.50 as at dec 2009. Right now it's at 135.

135-90= 45

45*17m=765m in fair value gains which will be reflected on P&L.

Divide 765/ 50m shares and u get kshs. 15.1 per share of fair value gains just from DTB. I worked out and thus far, fair value gains on Jub investments are at about 1.2B. Let's be conservative and assume this figure to be 1B and also assume that the share prices move sideways for quoted stocks. Divide by 50m shares and that's 20bob per share. Add 15 bob for their other income(from ops and investment income aka rent, bonds etc) and you are lokking at 35 bob minimum eps.


@horton I'm not so sure about a minimum EPS of 35 but I know things will be looking very good in their book with the rise of the NSE smile


The only issue I have is they may pay a FY dividend of only 5bob claiming that they are paying 100% of par value... I only hope they can couple this with a bonus issue.... Pray
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 1:28:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,275
Location: Nairobi
Jubilee is very conservative but that is a good thing... they have enough sense to keep enough in reserve to buy cheap during the bad times!

Warren Buffett would have been proud to own Jubilee!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
polymer1
#16 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 7:32:29 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/22/2010
Posts: 16
Location: Westlands
Jubilee values its investments at book value in its balance sheet.I stand corrected but this means they don't add gains to their profits.
There is nothing like making money, you have to earn it.
muganda
#17 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 8:06:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@polymer1, you stand corrected. From the last annual report, on adoption of IFRS 9:
• The Group’s quoted equity investments not held for trading have been designated as at FVTOCI (fair value through other comprehensive income);
• The Group’s remaining investments in equity investments are measured at FVTPL (fair value through profit and loss);


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