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KENOL/KOBIL
guru267
#1021 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 3:24:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru - You are stating the obvious. Read my post.

1) It can work either way. You can be left with 'expensive' stock. See Triton's gamble or even KK when it had pricey stocks.
2) I disagree that KK has $69 stock. Unless you have inside info, I believe you are mistaken for a number of reasons.
3) LOL... In 2009, everything was down! KQ was 20/-, KPLC was 100/-, Equity was 13, SCBK was 120, Williamson was 50, etc... Saying that KK was at its lowest point coz oil was at $30 [btw, that was for a very, very short period] is spurious correlation


@VVS you know that oil marketers can hold oil for more than half a year right???

lets do a case study...

KK which was holding stock it bought in Q3 and Q4 of 2008 for more than $100 made a 500million half year loss in 2009 when oil was trading at $30-$50....

The same company bought this oil at $30-$50 in H1 2009 and announced a 1.93 billion pre tax profit for FY 2009 and this was attributed to the sale of this stock they bought at above $60...

so they do benefit much more when oil rises and tend to lose when oil falls
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#1022 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 3:34:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@guru - The question is one of 'cost of holding stocks'

- I like KK's management. Why do I defend them? Coz they are smart!
- I am sure KK knew the crap with KPRL was coming so they made nice with KPA & KPC [storage + imports]. Then they must have filled up all they could. Nevertheless, within 2 months they must have depleted their stocks.
- OTS has reduced the 'speculation' that OMCs can engage. Not 100% but significantly.
- The cost of storage in Kenya is significant. KK does not have a huge tank network. A pity. I have engaged KK in this matter. I wish KK would have bought the 'unfinished' Triton tanks.
- Financing costs on $100 oil > $50 oil

BTW, I think KK will have a great 2H coz they were able to jack prices to 99/- (selling 'old' stocks) while standing aside while MoE, KPRL & other OMCs could not match KK's heft at importation or distribution.

Also the financing costs will be lower as Kenya's interest rates have dropped vs 2009...

What I am saying is that LOW oil prices are better for KK coz 'overall' they can sell more at better margins.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wendz
#1023 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 4:00:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
qw25041985 wrote:
Oh yeah . Mumias broke that 12 bob support.But i donot think it'll be down for long there's no much volume to pull it down but technically itsnt a good thing.
Access Kenya lost steam ? what happened .


who understands this statement to explain to me? sloooowly please.
mlennyma
#1024 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 4:07:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
I have waited to read a post by wondergirl in vain,
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
the deal
#1025 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 7:01:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KenolKobil's license has been reinstated but they have agreed to pay KPRL 634M Kenyan money-Nation mobile.
youcan'tstopusnow
#1026 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 7:17:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
BGL
#1027 Posted : Thursday, October 28, 2010 7:45:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
the deal wrote:
KenolKobil's license has been reinstated but they have agreed to pay KPRL 634M Kenyan money-Nation mobile.


They will clear the outstanding debt and pay new rates like everybody else. It is always fair to play football on an even playground.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
Wondergirl
#1028 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 9:20:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
mlennyma wrote:
I have waited to read a post by wondergirl in vain,

smile Hey Mlennyma. Looks like I'm a lass of few words, or should I say few posts?
VituVingiSana
#1029 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 10:59:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
nyoike & kiraitu on the way out?

http://www.standardmedia...?id=2000021267&cid=4
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#1030 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 10:59:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
KenolKobil's license has been reinstated but they have agreed to pay KPRL 634M Kenyan money-Nation mobile.


I told you. This Segman dude was just bullsh*tting. We shareholders lost big time in that unscripted, unrehearsed circus and no one can convince me otherwise.

BBI will solve it
:)
2012
#1031 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 11:02:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
nyoike & kiraitu on the way out?


Not before Mudavadi and Kosgey. The stage is set for an ODM vs PNU battle.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#1032 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 11:05:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
the deal wrote:
KenolKobil's license has been reinstated but they have agreed to pay KPRL 634M Kenyan money-Nation mobile.


I told you. This Segman dude was just bullsh*tting. We shareholders lost big time in that unscripted, unrehearsed circus and no one can convince me otherwise.
OK. I am sure you can ask him during the AGM...

BTW, what is your source of information?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#1033 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 11:18:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Old mzee nyoike who i dont like is expected to pay 700k to total and others for a case he lost.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
2012
#1034 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 11:36:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
OK. I am sure you can ask him during the AGM...
BTW, what is your source of information?


Here's the proof C/P. Old story but you'll agree that KK was the loser in this hullabaloo and now they are paying the new rates after all that! Aren't you even a bit annoyed with this dude?

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- KenolKobil Ltd., a Kenyan fuel retailer, said it is incurring “heavy losses” after Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd. stopped processing crude for the company.
“Our agreement with KenolKobil was terminated in July and we are not processing any oil for them,” Raj Varma, chief executive officer of KPRL, said in a phone interview today.

Four-Year Dispute

KenolKobil and KPRL have been in dispute over processing fees for the past four years. KPRL says it is owed 600 million shillings ($7.4 million) by KenolKobil, which in turn says it is owed 5.3 billion shillings as a result of losses incurred after KPRL withheld refined oil and prevented two ships from delivering crude ordered by KenolKobil.

KenolKobil’s contract for having crude processed at KPRL ended on July 12, Kaburu Mwirichia, director-general of the energy commission, told reporters today in Ngong, 18 kilometers (11 miles) north of Nairobi. As a result, KenolKobil isn’t allowed to import crude for sale within Kenya, he said.

“We took action telling them that they can do everything else, but cannot do the business of importing oil for use in this country,” Mwirichia said. “They can buy from other importers.”

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#1035 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 11:41:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@2012 - Nowhere does it say KK has settled for KShs 634mn in the Reuters story you posted above... So no, you need to do better...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#1036 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 12:03:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@2012 - Nowhere does it say KK has settled for KShs 634mn in the Reuters story you posted above... So no, you need to do better...


Is this better?

By NATION CORRESPONDENT
Posted Thursday, October 28 2010 at 16:53

The commission, on October 14, 2010, gave Kenya Oil Company Ltd (Kenol) and Kobil Petroleum Ltd (Kobil) the licences for import, export and wholesale after the firm agreed to pay Sh634 million it owes the refinery.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#1037 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 12:56:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@2012 - Nowhere does it say KK has settled for KShs 634mn in the Reuters story you posted above... So no, you need to do better...


Is this better?

By NATION CORRESPONDENT
Posted Thursday, October 28 2010 at 16:53

The commission, on October 14, 2010, gave Kenya Oil Company Ltd (Kenol) and Kobil Petroleum Ltd (Kobil) the licences for import, export and wholesale after the firm agreed to pay Sh634 million it owes the refinery.

I was waiting for you to post a story from Nation Media Group... Those guys do almost ZERO research on business stories... d'oh! d'oh!

So... I will disagree with your assessment... I think the truth lies somewhere in between zero & 634mn...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#1038 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 1:23:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I was waiting for you to post a story from Nation Media Group... Those guys do almost ZERO research on business stories...



Agree with you on the uselessness of our 'trusted' media.

Anyway, that aside, how comes Total never seems to generate interest or take advantage of situations?

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#1039 Posted : Friday, October 29, 2010 1:33:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I was waiting for you to post a story from Nation Media Group... Those guys do almost ZERO research on business stories...


Agree with you on the uselessness of our 'trusted' media.

Anyway, that aside, how comes Total never seems to generate interest or take advantage of situations
They were quite popular but Total cannot expand outside Kenya... so limited growth except for gains from Chevron/Caltex buyout...

KK can & is expanding regionally...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#1040 Posted : Wednesday, November 03, 2010 4:58:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
We another large trade today 7.6 on the ritcher scale. If history repeats itself, we know what will follow....
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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