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PKoli
#311 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 5:40:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
Down to 10.95...no wonder @QW has gone missing...LOL...


With a volume of 7m shares traded, it looks like some sort of transfer from one account to the other. During the trading hours, there were no such huge demand or supply
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Njung'e
#312 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 5:51:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Stocksmaster,
Pkoli has summarised it well although i would wish that MSC bags Nzoia before moving to Tarda....but after the government has written off all the debts.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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shauriyako
#313 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 7:39:03 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/17/2010
Posts: 71
Location: Kenya
guru267 wrote:
shauriyako wrote:
@all - Mumias stands out as the odd one out in my portfolio. I need to finish the realignment on my portfolio and the question that comes to mind is - Is there any chance that we will see a rally on this counter towards book closure? If I get out now I will lock in about 10% gain but with 50K units the potential dividends look good too. Your valued advise is sought on this, People.


@shauriyako this stock MIGHT rally towards books closure but even if it did it wouldnt make it over 13.8 bob.... then there's also the possibility investors will realise that they will lose more in capital depreciation than the dividends they'll make and they bail...


for example i only hold stocks for dividend if i'm sure theý'll go up after books closure...

trust me the investors who bought kenya re and safcom before books closure to wait for dividends know exactly what i'm talking about....


I got advised but did not bail out, now I see know I should have taken the advise. The decision is becoming more and more difficult to make by the day.
I guess I now have to live with my poor decision - my sale order goes out on Thursday. I will observe for the next two days kwanza!Pray Pray Pray
Pkoli, Gordon, Waithaka what your take.
When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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Aguytrying
#314 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 8:21:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Im no expert in sugar business, but i know what i have seen. At stock that has had resistance points broken week in week out. Ppl are exiting this stock like a nonsense. The turnover its been having over the last one month are, large investors selling at lower prices huge volumes to get out. My broke been telling me about these large trades. You'll remember one that brought the price to 11.50 like 2 wks ago. Nobody know whether the trend will continue. I got out at 11.50 with my losses. I believe this is a sinking ship, i dont even see it rallying towards book closure. I may be biased coz i used to own it.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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youcan'tstopusnow
#315 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 8:35:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The Mumias share imepata kichapo cha mbwa
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah
#316 Posted : Monday, October 25, 2010 11:18:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
The Mumias share imepata kichapo cha mbwa



http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=103697#post103697 - plus the 2 entries above on this post on my response to QW who has disappeared. I hope he's learning and not quiting Sad

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=104605#post104605 - And this about the dangers of following the 'gospel truth' on broker house advice...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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KIRTI
#317 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 9:51:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
Dont exite & sell Mumias share at lower price. I think big investors are playing the game. If you want to buy 10m share & current price is 11.60 for share. You sell 500k share with all demand from 11.60 to 10.90.Also make internal transfer of big volume @ 10.90 then ppl will exiting this stock & get supply at lowered price.We have not seen any bad news which effect the share price. Infact their performance for 2009/10 is better than previous year. PBT is gone up by 83%. ( from 1.1 b to 2.1bn) After releasing H1 result price will go up to 12. so dont exite.
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PKoli
#318 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 11:45:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
KIRTI wrote:
Dont exite & sell Mumias share at lower price. I think big investors are playing the game. If you want to buy 10m share & current price is 11.60 for share. You sell 500k share with all demand from 11.60 to 10.90.Also make internal transfer of big volume @ 10.90 then ppl will exiting this stock & get supply at lowered price.We have not seen any bad news which effect the share price. Infact their performance for 2009/10 is better than previous year. PBT is gone up by 83%. ( from 1.1 b to 2.1bn) After releasing H1 result price will go up to 12. so dont exite.


MSC has been oversold. Even though the results are a little not exciting, a reasonable p/e of 12 for the stock should suffice. The co-gen and ethanol taking care of reduced margins from the sugar revenue.
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PKoli
#319 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 11:51:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
shauriyako wrote:
guru267 wrote:
shauriyako wrote:
@all - Mumias stands out as the odd one out in my portfolio. I need to finish the realignment on my portfolio and the question that comes to mind is - Is there any chance that we will see a rally on this counter towards book closure? If I get out now I will lock in about 10% gain but with 50K units the potential dividends look good too. Your valued advise is sought on this, People.


@shauriyako this stock MIGHT rally towards books closure but even if it did it wouldnt make it over 13.8 bob.... then there's also the possibility investors will realise that they will lose more in capital depreciation than the dividends they'll make and they bail...


for example i only hold stocks for dividend if i'm sure theý'll go up after books closure...

trust me the investors who bought kenya re and safcom before books closure to wait for dividends know exactly what i'm talking about....


I got advised but did not bail out, now I see know I should have taken the advise. The decision is becoming more and more difficult to make by the day.
I guess I now have to live with my poor decision - my sale order goes out on Thursday. I will observe for the next two days kwanza!Pray Pray Pray
Pkoli, Gordon, Waithaka what your take.


My personal thoughts are informed by the fact that worldwide there is some looming sugar deficit due to droughts in main sugar producing countries such as Brazil. This will sustain reasonably high sugar prices, coupled with demand supply equation, will imply fairly high sugar prices. I therefore expect MSC to move to well over KES 13 per share. Of couse assuming that the political noise will die. Like I meantioned earlier, any positive pronouncement of the Tarda project will lead to significant stock rise.
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Njung'e
#320 Posted : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 12:09:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Pkoli,
We are most likely not to hear any pronouncement on Tarda anytime soon.I think focus is on the ethanol plant.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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