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Access Kenya bus got amber lights on. Just taking off
VituVingiSana
#101 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:44:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@GG - But can't Airtel spend the cash to install new Base Stations around Nairobi & Mombasa?

Or simply lease space on the Metro Rings?

KPLC leases dark fibre on Nairobi-Mombasa line & will probably do so on other lines around Kenya...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Djinn
#102 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 12:48:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
Guys, having looked at the more recent posts, I think I should offer some clarifications and also fault some positions taken here.

1 - When SCON bought the two WiMax players, it was really acquiring spectrum and some infrastructure - not a burdensome load but a good deal. The same cannot be said of AK - we all remember what it cost to acquire open view and despite all the brouhaha - that unit is yet to make serious inroads in outsourced IT (if anything, SCOM have a better strategy in this regard under Safaricom Business - not just the connectivity but managed services).

2 - Its unlikely Bharti will acquire AK. Thats wishful thinking by shareholders eager to drop a hot potato. Bharti's business model os all abt opex and not capex - recall the recent deal with IBM? Even prior to being acquired by Bharti, Zain was gravitating in that direction by selling off its towers/BTS to Nokia Siemens Networks (and with them, a good number of staff were also "sold" to Nokia. So they lease the towers and do not need to retain headcount to maintain the towers. So, its about oursourcing all those things - why acquire AK? They can get fibre capacity from KPLC, KDN, SEACOm, JAMII, etc etc. the 600 corporates are not really that important either - these are possibly customers who will churn in the next 3-6 months (to SCOM Business, Zuku, etc).

3 - lets also remember who is a shareholder in Zain/Bhart - Sameer Group. They own KDN (now Altech East Africa) and that is the biggest backbone infrastructure operator in EAST AFRICA. So why covet AK's metro fibre when a "sister" company has fibre to Tororo Uganda, into Tanzania, all over Kenya and distributing capacity for SEACOM. Lets remember AK only has 2.5% shareholding in TEAMS. Bharti has 20% and I cannot recall how much KDN has, buit a good chunk as well.

4 - BTS vs Fibre - one is not an alternative to the other - one is switching and the other is transmission....

Hope this helps. I do not see Bharti buying AK. Maybe Wananchi Telecom (Zuku) - they had indicated a desire to list but the time was not right (SCOM was listing and one other IPO....)....and they have a broader regional and product strategy (broadcasting/cable TV)....and...at their back end is KDN.

The Merchant
#103 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 1:10:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
It is my honest opinion that Access Kenya is a junk stock. It will go down soon when its shareholders get tired of hoping and other investors wisen up to its 'uselessness'.
VituVingiSana
#104 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 1:46:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
@Djinn - Please explain more about BTS vs Fibre...

I thought BTS Stations can easily replace the 'last mile' fibre connections?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#105 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:48:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
After closely looking at the charts, i predict that in 6 months time Ak will fall below the 16 sh support, trend sideways between 12-15 for up to 6 months followed by the mother of all rallies from Q3 2011. My advice, if you have AK sell as it approaches 20 and sit tight.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mlennyma
#106 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:01:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Sparkly!! Who has given you the permission to think like me??i feel like you although am seeing a rally coming
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#107 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 9:02:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
This guys are not letting it go that easily,they are busy installing internet protocol cameras all over nairobi and mombasa to help ease traffic ...dont you think they are on their way to please the small man?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Djinn
#108 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:58:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Djinn - Please explain more about BTS vs Fibre...

I thought BTS Stations can easily replace the 'last mile' fibre connections?


Yes they can on the ACCESS part of the network (which connects to the switching). So the last mile for GSM is the 1-2km to the nearest base transceiver station (BTS)...or if its WiMax...the same 2-5 km from the WiMax BTS....or if its CDMA...the last 5-10km of air between your device and the BTS. So for access, you can replace last mile for Internet only - not voice and at least not mobile voice smile

But...say you are calling a mobile in MSA from your mobile....your signal will got to the BTS then to the Mobile switching centre and EITHER go wireless (microwave) or wired (cable/fibre) to the MSC in Mombasa to be relayed to the BTS nearest to the subscriber. Thats the transmission part which is being replaced...i.e. replacing MW with fibre. Another example, we see it now costs 3 bob to call the US on Zain and 40 bob to call Uganda - even if you are in Busia....because the Ug side of fibre is not complete so the calls have to be routed through Satellite....thus the cost. Whereas the cost of calling the US is lower since the call is routed through fibre (International VoIP).
sparkly
#109 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 2:13:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mlennyma wrote:
Sparkly!! Who has given you the permission to think like me??i feel like you although am seeing a rally coming

@mlennyma great minds think alike. In the short term i just don't see how access will prop up their declining turnover and profitability. When they commission their additional fibre, then they can leverage on increased customer numbers and lower costs of bandwidth on fibre.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#110 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 7:20:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Djinn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Djinn - Please explain more about BTS vs Fibre...

I thought BTS Stations can easily replace the 'last mile' fibre connections?


Yes they can on the ACCESS part of the network (which connects to the switching). So the last mile for GSM is the 1-2km to the nearest base transceiver station (BTS)...or if its WiMax...the same 2-5 km from the WiMax BTS....or if its CDMA...the last 5-10km of air between your device and the BTS. So for access, you can replace last mile for Internet only - not voice and at least not mobile voice smile

But...say you are calling a mobile in MSA from your mobile....your signal will got to the BTS then to the Mobile switching centre and EITHER go wireless (microwave) or wired (cable/fibre) to the MSC in Mombasa to be relayed to the BTS nearest to the subscriber. Thats the transmission part which is being replaced...i.e. replacing MW with fibre. Another example, we see it now costs 3 bob to call the US on Zain and 40 bob to call Uganda - even if you are in Busia....because the Ug side of fibre is not complete so the calls have to be routed through Satellite....thus the cost. Whereas the cost of calling the US is lower since the call is routed through fibre (International VoIP).

So AK which sort of provides the last mile using it's Metro Ring is not a prized catch as Safaricom, Orange & Airtel installs BTS (WiMax + GSM/GPRS + CDMA) all around Nairobi...

For all I know, KPLC can provide 'fibre' around Nairobi to the BTS...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#111 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 9:01:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Can we cross 20 today here?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#112 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 12:09:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Bado sijapata dividends.nani amepata?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
chikonde
#113 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 3:52:55 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 81
Has anybody got any news on the AK dividends?
sparkly
#114 Posted : Wednesday, October 20, 2010 8:31:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
I read in yesterday's DN that safcom is desparate to get wimax frequencies to get a foothold in data. Problem is that those frequencies sit with KDN, Wananchi and Access. Safcom is determined to acquire someone...
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#115 Posted : Wednesday, October 20, 2010 6:12:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
I read in yesterday's DN that safcom is desparate to get wimax frequencies to get a foothold in data. Problem is that those frequencies sit with KDN, Wananchi and Access. Safcom is determined to acquire someone...

There are many small firms that Safaricom is acquiring... not necessarily AK...

Plus do not discount new technologies that may allow Safcom to push through more data through existing WiMax spectrum.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#116 Posted : Wednesday, October 20, 2010 9:08:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
I read in yesterday's DN that safcom is desparate to get wimax frequencies to get a foothold in data. Problem is that those frequencies sit with KDN, Wananchi and Access. Safcom is determined to acquire someone...

There are many small firms that Safaricom is acquiring... not necessarily AK...

Plus do not discount new technologies that may allow Safcom to push through more data through existing WiMax spectrum.

@vvs i've got a gut feeling that safcom is bidding time.waiting for the price to be right...
Life is short. Live passionately.
Gordon Gekko
#117 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:31:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
MTN/UUNET have scheduled a function at the Carnivore on Tuesday 26th October. No details yet, probably a launch. Access kwisa. "Everywhere you go"
BGL
#118 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:34:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
I rarely sale my stocks though i keep on buying... I look at it as my informal retirement contributions and also the perfect inheritance for my children. However last week i said bye to AK which i bought 30,000 x Ksh 23.50 in August of last year for Ksh 18.20. I booked a 30% loss but there are more promising stocks right now than holding this sinking ship. There only thing that remains is a dividend of Ksh 8550 which is overdue since it should have been paid by now.

Has anyone received his AK dividend cheque?
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
2012
#119 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 7:07:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
BGL wrote:
AK which i bought 30,000 x Ksh 23.50 in August of last year for Ksh 18.20. I booked a 30% loss


That's a big but not a huge loss, you'll make it back sooner than later. Financial, agricultural and Kenol + KPLC will earn you that back in no time. But I hope you put it in KPLC because I beleive by Feb you'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

BBI will solve it
:)
sparkly
#120 Posted : Thursday, October 21, 2010 10:11:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@BGL its darkest before dawn.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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