@SM look at DTBK when folks started threads here it was @ 108 now look where it is...i also think we underestimate the depth of the Wazua members...we have fund managers, stockbrokers...high networth investors coming here everyday...

Mbona uliiba mawazo yangu ..

True.....a moment a certain stock is discussed here,....check the trend!!!

Happy hunting.....for it is easier to make money than to propose...

Simple, let us put it to test. May I propose Mumias, we drive it to 14-15 so I can bail out.

there is about 50 counter trading at the NSE. with 300+ members here at wazua and about 20% of them making 80% contribution (if you know the 20/80 rule. we can have to comment on almost every stock that has any action.
you chose to look at the stocks that the right decisions were made and your results will be different and diverse from the one who has been making losses basing on the discussions here.

Very interesting topic.... i'm pretty sure wazua does influence prices of counters especially the illiquid ones...

I'm thinking as soon as @SM sold his KCB holding at 22.75 the rest of wazuans did the same because there has been huge retail activity at this price....

Jubilee has been trading at the range of 185-190 for more than a month then a few days ago @mwanahisa said he was going to buy at 199 and the price immediately shot up to 199

I do admit i have on enough occasions driven up the price of an illiquid stock basing on discussions on wazua....

As a foreign investor u r always clueless on what the market sentiment is...politics...e.t.c...every market is unique in its way...the NSE is unique cos the bulk of investors r retailers n most of them invest according to sentiment not fundamentals...i'm sure most of those foreign fund managers come here as guests...or theyre even registered users...

@ The Deal: Good point.
The bulk of retail investors approach the NSE as a Casino (@Young calls it speculatively speculative). They therefore dont buy into a counter but rather place bets. This actually explains why many Kenyans love pyramid schemes and get rich quick schemes. The NSE to many is a legal pyramid scheme especially when it is delivering quick gains.

Based on this, Wazua provides an avenue where the retail investor can increase chances of success by getting a feeling of which counter is currently being tipped to go up...up....up....

The majority of Wazua visitors are not even registered. After visiting the site for some time and compairing the advice on Wazua with the actual market activity, some self fulfiling prophesies are noted which reinforces the speculative behaviour. This is further compounded by the pedestrian level information given to clients at most brokerages.

A typical NSE trading day has approximately 2000 market deals and if Wazua members based on the sentiments on this site account for even 100, then some effect is realistic. Remember the price of an illiquid counter can be affected by as little as 100 shares traded (eg On Monday, 18th October 2010, Carbacid traded only 100 shares at Ksh 170. The previous days closing price had been 163. This single trade worth Ksh 17,000 effectively raised the market capitalization of Carbacid by Ksh 238M).

Happy hunting

>> There is a definate correlation between Wazua and NSE... and it goes without say that some marginal changes in stock prices may be attributed to writings on these walls...



Y=α + βx1 + βx2 + μ, where Y is the NSE reaction


α is the constant parameter



β1 & β2 are the coefficients

x1 is the external factors



x2 is the effect attributable to wazua.

what happened two days after stocksmaster bought KCB at 19bob??

What happened two days after he announced his buy of DTBK at 118bob???

I stumbled on wazua when i was looking for info on the Kenyan market and i was a guest for more than a year before joining so i do believe there are a couple of small time fund managers especially foreign who use the info on wazua.

@Njung'e you quoted the exact EPS of mumias a week before they were publicized so its hard to convince us otherwise