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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,075 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Welcome back KK The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/-/539546/1030614/-/msn2ho/-/index.html
This inflation rate model manipulation is going to create chaos in future to the money supply. As long as the economy recovers and expands, bankers will overlook it. But during a pause or recession, bankers might boycott using this gauge and a money crunch will follow suit. It's no wonder the Kenyan banks ignore the CBK's fund rate (CBR) and refuse to lower the loan interest rates to single digits since the risk models are out of sync with the Banker. What is keeping the KES rate lower against the €, £ & $ if indeed the econ is on recovery and is expanding? At the moment I can't understand this ultra low inflation rate & a devalued KES. @hisah. You're onto something...ive also bin looking into this after I did a research on the little adjustments (read hedonics) made over time in the more developed economies. The current Kenyan inflation stats have poor correlations with most economic indicators from savings rate to M3 to KES currency. It's become irrelevant like the CBR that CBK admitted that it wasn't factoring it into the interest rate structure. The article made a good point about the erosion of purchasing power, which is one of the interesting indicators that should be followed. What are bank lending decisions based on if they borrow at zero rates interbank, hold in excess of 25b in clearing accounts and the real interest rate suggests it's time to lend. The problem i have with the inflation rate is that one can't make comparisons b4 2009, so we can't know the drivers. A devalued currency during export recovery growth as well as other inflows, it's all so confusing. http://www.bi-me.com/mai...=48853&t=1&cg=4
http://blog.kimblecharti...dollar-testing-support/
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Scubidu wrote:@hisah. You're onto something...ive also bin looking into this after I did a research on the little adjustments (read hedonics) made over time in the more developed economies. The current Kenyan inflation stats have poor correlations with most economic indicators from savings rate to M3 to KES currency. It's become irrelevant like the CBR that CBK admitted that it wasn't factoring it into the interest rate structure. The article made a good point about the erosion of purchasing power, which is one of the interesting indicators that should be followed. What are bank lending decisions based on if they borrow at zero rates interbank, hold in excess of 25b in clearing accounts and the real interest rate suggests it's time to lend. The problem i have with the inflation rate is that one can't make comparisons b4 2009, so we can't know the drivers. A devalued currency during export recovery growth as well as other inflows, it's all so confusing. http://www.bi-me.com/mai...=48853&t=1&cg=4
http://blog.kimblecharti...dollar-testing-support/
Yikes, we're also cooking figures like the west! The inflation rate fell almost 6 times from 17 to 3% after remodelling the metrics while the purchasing power is bleeding more. Therefore, the inflation rate is still above 17%, but represented as 3%. What the heck?! So what was the rationale behind remodelling the inflation rate metrics if the Banker doesn't use it? This poses a great challenge to effectively price and calculate the economic direction and risky for money market. Where can one get more info about these monetary policy issues apart from CBK? I don't want the CBK stuff since it now looks like they're fudging info  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Return of unsecured loans as banks raid salaried employees www.nation.co.ke/busines.../-/14qfos7z/-/index.html Could this turn out as bad as it did for the American banks when they went on a lending spree? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Our banks are very clever. What they say is unsecured is really secured loans.they will ask for all sorts of info from your HOUR your financial status etc. When you a really "unsecured loans" you will pay through the nose
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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U.S. Security Company Seeks $7.5 million in Exchange for EquityUSA existing security (public safety, consulting, training, alarm monitoring & installation, access control, body guard, investigations) company seeks 7.5 million USD in exchange for equity to consolidate 4 existing companies into one LLC and purchase equity in other similar companies to increase market share. Management has over 300 years of combined security industry, real estate, construction and government experience, and their goal is to operate more efficiently and profitably as a whole unique brand, rather than as divided companies and brands. They have profitably managed a multi-million dollar security services firm, and have clients at the local, regional, national and international levels. Clientele that they protect include federal agencies responsible for disaster response and recovery (federal government), national alarm companies, local utility firms, national utility firms (electrical, water), wind generation plant companies (“green” technology), international security companies, celebrity security (estate and travel), Fortune 50 executive protection, natural gas pipelines and terminals, jewelry (diamond import / export) companies, large parcel carrier firms, consulting and investigations firms, national P.I. agency referral firms, national and regional security companies, international banks, A.T.M. servicing firms, city governments (local and state) throughout operating areas, educational facilities and schools, residential communities, homeowners associations, property management firms, hospitals and medical clinics, tobacco manufacturers and distributors, petroleum companies, disaster response and recovery companies, construction companies building clean energy housing and commercial spaces. Please let me know of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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American banks messed up with mortgage mechanics through securization, which led to a lot of risk misrepresentation to the point where almost anyone could qualify for mortgage!? Kenyan banks are still scared to lend and refuse to listen to the lending calls of the CBK since they can't price the monetary risks efficiently. Unsecured loans aka mkopo wa salo are pegged on a payslip. If need a huge loan e.g. 10M, the bank won/t accept a payslip to be the security. However, I'm still interested in knowing the banks that lent to housing developers of the oversupplied leafy suburbs and how they expect the developers to pay back. Another gimmick to watch out for is this loan on equity (house value) after some mortgage payments so that one can borrow on the value (market) of their 'home'. Home in quotes since it is still under the bank $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@scubidu - An interesting FT article on the latest count of CB's still devaluing or intervening on their currencies against the $. http://ftalphaville.ft.c...-a-one-week-band-redux/
In 1949, Henry Hazitt was quoted on Newsweek about how the Bretton Woods fixed foreign exchange mechanism could collapse due to rogue devaluation - what the world is currently experiencing. He called this the World Monetary Earthquake (title of his book) - note it's a long article. http://books.google.co.u...m=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Hazlitt
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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@hisah. Well the west wrote the rule book on inflation manipulation. The rate of understating Kenyan inflation was actually a factor of 4 times in 2008 but generally averaged about 2 times since 2006. Nway these are my estimates. Where can you info on monetary policy issues? I suppose you could try World Bank and IMF. You could get stats from a website called TradingEconomics but they generally quote World Bank. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/indicators/
They have a few good charts and data on inflation and other interesting stuff like our GDP deflator. Interesting article on BD today on inflation. if the problem is we don't trust government stats, why don't industry players do their own index...compare a NCPB food index to the KNBS...the difference, is the calculation. I think that would be a novel idea, an industry run index to benchmark the establishment. http://www.businessdaily...0/-/p6b8k8/-/index.html
http://www.zerohedge.com...and-violent-sell-stocks
I had the same concern about mortgage lending, u mentioned in a previous post...particularly on finance costs incurred by developers of non-residential properties. I had spoken to a director at a real estate management firm and they were concerned about vacancy rates. Great articles in the above post btw. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Biotech and Healthcare Takeover/Joint Venture OfferA Singapore based fund is investing USD$50 Million Dollars into an Australian Company who are market leaders in healthcare supplements. The company holds significant international contracts, currently exports to 12 countries as well as entering a major acquisitions program to accelerate market penetration. They are going to use the funding to take over and or JV with listed companies all over the world in their sector to buy every good ebitda positive company in their space. Some of the key criteria: a) SECTOR: Similar space and/or product synergy b) KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF TARGETS Compatible market or product and strategy Excellent brand Capacity & ability to ramp up Asset rich Multiple revenue streams Listed or private Efficient decision making process and capability to provide accretive ebitda Ability to add value geographically and strategically Acquisition model based on earn out, part cash, part equity. Please let me of a good candidate via karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
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