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KPLC split/rights timeline
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My 2 cents
#1 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 10:46:03 AM
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Anyone know when this will be?
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2012
#2 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 11:14:22 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
Anyone know when this will be?


I thought they said they'll make it public this year once it's finalised? Patients my friend.

BBI will solve it :)
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Sober
#3 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 12:29:51 PM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
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there is a comprehensive string running on this counter. it offers more than necessary, at least for now.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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KIRTI
#4 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:03:43 PM
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After restruckring, Share capital will increase from 79.1m share of 20 to = 1582m to 1734.6m Share of 2.50 = 4336m. Share price will go down from current price of 233 to 160 very soon. so i suggest to SELL SELL SELL SELL.
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guru267
#5 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:09:52 PM
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KIRTI wrote:
After restruckring, Share capital will increase from 79.1m share of 20 to = 1582m to 1734.6m Share of 2.50 = 4336m. Share price will go down from current price of 233 to 160 very soon. so i suggest to SELL SELL SELL SELL.


i like this very cheap logic... HALF BAKED i tell ya...

did stanchart fall to 160 when they held their rights issue....

@KIRTI not every counter is a KCB you know...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sober
#6 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:41:22 PM
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Kirti, what calculator are you using. i did not get a thing. only the current 79mn shares
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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2012
#7 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:45:51 PM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
KIRTI wrote:
After restruckring, Share capital will increase from 79.1m share of 20 to = 1582m to 1734.6m Share of 2.50 = 4336m. Share price will go down from current price of 233 to 160 very soon. so i suggest to SELL SELL SELL SELL.


Stop confusing people. KPLC is not adding new shares to the market. They are converting preference shares which hurt share holders more than add value. The right issue will increase KPLC's capital so I don't get what you're talking about.

BBI will solve it :)
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KIRTI
#8 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:46:01 PM
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guru267 wrote:
KIRTI wrote:
After restruckring, Share capital will increase from 79.1m share of 20 to = 1582m to 1734.6m Share of 2.50 = 4336m. Share price will go down from current price of 233 to 160 very soon. so i suggest to SELL SELL SELL SELL.


i like this very cheap logic... HALF BAKED i tell ya...

did stanchart fall to 160 when they held their rights issue....

@KIRTI not every counter is a KCB you know...

Kplc earn 3.2 b. let assume they will earn 4.00b by next year. current PE ratio is 6 bob.
let assume PE ration will go @ 8 bob for next year. if you work out Share price will be 18.50 bob.
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guru267
#9 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 4:55:25 PM
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KIRTI wrote:

Kplc earn 3.2 b. let assume they will earn 4.00b by next year. current PE ratio is 6 bob.
let assume PE ration will go @ 8 bob for next year. if you work out Share price will be 18.50 bob.


@KIRTI let me take you to school in math 101

After the conversion and split there will be 1.24billion shares... After the rights issue there will be 1.73 billion shares..

if PAT is 4billion as you say then EPS will be 2.33...

If kengen is allowed to trade at a P/E of 19 then its fair to say KPLC can trade at a P/E of 13...

At this P/E and EPS we have a price of 30.15 or if converted back to current status a price of 240bob

@KIRTI now do you see where we differ???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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KIRTI
#10 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 5:22:57 PM
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Even if you are right & share price will go up to 30 bob after conversion & split, still i will suggest to offload your share at current price. Just keep only 100 share & apply for additional share as much as possible. you will get it as GOk will not take their right.
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guru267
#11 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 5:28:04 PM
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KIRTI wrote:
Even if you are right & share price will go up to 30 bob after conversion & split, still i will suggest to offload your share at current price. Just keep only 100 share & apply for additional share as much as possible. you will get it as GOk will not take their right.


@KIRTI thats where you're wrong AGAIN!!! i remind you this is not KCB and the rights will be oversubscribed...

so if you sell now and keep 100 shares get ready to get only the 39 rights shares you will be entitled to and NOTHING MORE!!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#12 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 7:47:34 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
KIRTI wrote:
Even if you are right & share price will go up to 30 bob after conversion & split, still i will suggest to offload your share at current price. Just keep only 100 share & apply for additional share as much as possible. you will get it as GOk will not take their right.

I pity those who will dump this stock to remain with 100 shares hoping to successfully apply for more shares.
I tell you the over subscription will shock the market and give the stock at some point a PE of 19. If Kengen, with its reduced earnings can stil command a PE of 18, how much more can KPLC go.
I concur with Guru, in all his sentiments and thank him for taking Kirti through KPLC 101!
@SufficientlyP
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Gordon Gekko
#13 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 8:57:47 AM
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@guru, I don't understand @KIRTI's logic but I agree with him (and have mentioned it before) that the rights will be under-subscribed.
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:16:46 AM
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@GG - Between the Rights taken up + Additional Shares taken up + Underwriting = Over-subscription...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#15 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:35:11 AM
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@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....
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VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:40:37 AM
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Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

@GG - You are right... I meant to say with the 'confidence' underwriting brings to the table e.g. TPSEA... there is a greater chance of full uptake... In the event, there is an 'under-subscription' then the underwriters take up the rest... All in all... All the shares will be taken up...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#17 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:41:54 AM
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Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....


I'm also questioning the rationale behind global early redemption i.e. without disabilities, death etc.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:43:57 AM
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Gordon Gekko wrote:

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....

Not necessarily...

1) Those retrenched may be a small portion of the total claimants on Pension Funds
2) Not all will withdraw their savings/pension cash
3) New contributions will continue coming into Pension Funds even while withdrawals are made. New cash pays off old cash
4) Insurance firms are huge 'investors' & many Kenyans are moving to Life Insurance among other products are 'trust' in NSSF is diminished
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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PKoli
#19 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:44:41 AM
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Joined: 2/10/2007
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The monies we are talking about is little. In the neighbourhood of 10billion, that is very little money for a utility company with such a huge asset base. The rights will alll be taken up, including those that gava will not take.
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guru267
#20 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 10:17:37 AM
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All the guys who think the rights will be undersubscribed can follow @GG and @KIRTI'S strategy then we will see how that works out for you...

There will be too much value offered in the rights plus G.O.K plans to offer their rights to Institutions under private placement meaning they won't be accesible on the NSE..

Then we have the existing shareholders who will see the value in rights offered at 167bob and we also have the underwriters

All clear signs of an over subscription.

Plus i think guys should consider the fact that KCB had 3 rights issues in 5 years and they still had a 87% subscription rate for the latest ones...

plus TPS and stanchart whose rights issues had value were all significantly oversubscribed
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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