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KENOL/KOBIL
VituVingiSana
#901 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 8:44:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
I had never bothered looking into KK but when i saw their results i was dumbfounded that it was trading below 10bob....

Its H1 EPS alone can sustain this price...

When i get into KK i'm selling at 20 between now and 2013
So all that time I was wasting my breath on you about KK??? The 1H EPS = 0.79
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#902 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 8:52:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
I had never bothered looking into KK but when i saw their results i was dumbfounded that it was trading below 10bob....

Its H1 EPS alone can sustain this price...

When i get into KK i'm selling at 20 between now and 2013
So all that time I was wasting my breath on you about KK??? The 1H EPS = 0.79

@VVS lets just say i saw the light... Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

With ONLY its half year EPS its trading at a P/E of 12.56 which is CHEAP!!!

I don't mind waiting but i'm pretty sure it will pay off...

The only problem is that now i'm holding two industrial companies which i would have preferred to avoided...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#903 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 8:53:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwanahisa wrote:
@Horton. At worst, I would expect that KK broke even during the "hostilities". Note that a lot of independents do not participate in OTS and also source product(s) from the majors, yet they continue in business.

H1 2010 EPS was 80 cts. If we assume Zero EPS for Q3 but Q4 continues at the same pace as H1 (i.e. 40 cts EPS), we can look forward to an EPS of Kshs 1.20 which is a PE ratio of less than 10 and lower than that of Total. Total's normalised Headline EPS will probably come in at about Kshs 2, based on H1 2010 - a PE ratio of 15.4 at today's price of 31.25.


Dont compare Totals 1H EPS to KK's EPS...cos Total was aulready paying the processing fee's KK vehently fought...KK operating margins will take a hit...
mwanahisa
#904 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 9:19:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@The Deal, KK will make up for some of this from subsidiaries outside Kenya. Remember they are adding (have added) Mozambique and Burundi came on stream earlier in the year. Zim might yet come through as well.

And by the way, go back about 3 year's back when procesing fees were same for KK and Total. Guess who was still on top?
guru267
#905 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 9:22:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
@Horton. At worst, I would expect that KK broke even during the "hostilities". Note that a lot of independents do not participate in OTS and also source product(s) from the majors, yet they continue in business.

H1 2010 EPS was 80 cts. If we assume Zero EPS for Q3 but Q4 continues at the same pace as H1 (i.e. 40 cts EPS), we can look forward to an EPS of Kshs 1.20 which is a PE ratio of less than 10 and lower than that of Total. Total's normalised Headline EPS will probably come in at about Kshs 2, based on H1 2010 - a PE ratio of 15.4 at today's price of 31.25.


Dont compare Totals 1H EPS to KK's EPS...cos Total was aulready paying the processing fee's KK vehently fought...KK operating margins will take a hit...

@the deal when it comes to debt, EPS, dividend yield, diversification, management, profits, total kenya hasn't got ANYTHING on KK....

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Magnetic Touch
#906 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 10:19:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/31/2008
Posts: 90
KK is to pay KPRL part of the 600 million disputed oil processing fee. @mwanahisa, Your assumptions have just been shot to hell.

See:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KenolKobil%20agrees%20to%20pay%20disputed%20refinery%20fee/-/539552/1030852/-/2t79xcz/-/index.html
VituVingiSana
#907 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 10:27:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Magnetic Touch wrote:
KK is to pay KPRL part of the 600 million disputed oil processing fee. @mwanahisa, Your assumptions have just been shot to hell.

See:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KenolKobil%20agrees%20to%20pay%20disputed%20refinery%20fee/-/539552/1030852/-/2t79xcz/-/index.html

Hold on... LOL... The story is from the unreliable Business Daily... Even I was recently burnt by that! I quoted them & the NEXT day they had a different story on the SAME case!

@mwanahisa is relying on KK's announcement on their website & sent to the NSE... A falsehood in an 'official' announcement can be liable to penalties + charges in court.

Business Daily & Nation have pathetic Shame on you Liar Shame on you Liar business research... I only read them to get the pulse but always check other sources... There is no 'penalty' for mis-reporting by newspapers or media... When they are caught out, they 'apologize' with a tiny apology in the middle of the newspaper [even if the false story is on the front page]...

I am with @mwanahisa on this... I am going to drink KK's Kool Aid on Liar this until I know better!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
BGL
#908 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 12:35:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
MR VVS... this is how your master Mr Segman will settle his overdue debt.. He has realised he does not have more muscles than everybody else.

A payment schedule of Sh634,422, 694.49 the oil marketer owes the refinery was reached on October 7, according to someone familiar with the matter, and both parties have agreed to withdraw of all legal suits on the matter.

Under the new deal, KenolKobil is required to initially pay 50 per cent of disputed debt – about Sh300 million – and Sh55 million in 10 months’ installments from November 1, 2010. “KenolKobil is required to pay new processing fees and give a secured irrevocable guarantee from a reputable bank acceptable to KPRL with respect to arrears of fees,”

The whole story..... http://www.nation.co.ke/...2/-/ewbceo/-/index.html
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
VituVingiSana
#909 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 12:45:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
BGL wrote:
MR VVS... this is how your master Mr Segman...
WTF do you mean? Are you an effing mwarabu who thinks folks on wazua are slaves?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#910 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 5:41:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Magnetic Touch wrote:
KK is to pay KPRL part of the 600 million disputed oil processing fee. @mwanahisa, Your assumptions have just been shot to hell.

See:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KenolKobil%20agrees%20to%20pay%20disputed%20refinery%20fee/-/539552/1030852/-/2t79xcz/-/index.html

This is hearsay from someone "familiar" with the deal...

No evidence has been given and no official statement made on any payment....

And believe me the so called payment schedule of 55million is peanuts...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Sasha
#911 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 9:18:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/5/2007
Posts: 627
Though the settlement agreement seems like the standard terms in such disputes, I also doubt the authenticity of this business daily report. This someone 'familiar' cannot be trusted after the recent gaffes in reporting on KK.

Plus KK have no obligation to publicise the repayment terms. Like guru says Kshs 55 million is nothing considering the kind of business they have.
mwanahisa
#912 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 12:15:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
This is one instance where I would really appreciate it if KK could publish their 3rd Qtr results.

I know they are no under no obligation to do so. Considering the uncertainty wrought by the struggles the group has had with 'em b******s, it would be a welcome exception.
VituVingiSana
#913 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 1:08:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - I think they will hold off 3Q results or the b******s will want to raise the fees even higher!

I am in it for the long-haul (well... 2013) coz I have seen their expansion in E&C Africa... & I like it!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
BGL
#914 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 2:58:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
If you opt to do quarterly announcements then CMA REGULATIONS require that you report at the end of every quarter. KK can follow the route taken by their peers Total if they so wish.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
mwanahisa
#915 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 3:58:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
BGL wrote:
If you opt to do quarterly announcements then CMA REGULATIONS require that you report at the end of every quarter. KK can follow the route taken by their peers Total if they so wish.


This can't be the case. I know for a fact that ARM does Half Yearly reports, plus another for the 3rd Qtr. The last time they did a report for Q1 I believe was in 2006.

Kenya Re has also reported at Q3 level for the last 3 years, but not for Q1.

In both cases CMA does not seem to have made it a requirement subsequently.
BGL
#916 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 5:29:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
VituVingiSana wrote:
BGL wrote:
MR VVS... this is how your master Mr Segman...
WTF do you mean? Are you an effing mwarabu who thinks folks on wazua are slaves?


I have my own reservations but if in real world you call people all these names that you use here at Wazua!!! Well, God help you. You need to mind your worlds in public as well as in private.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
VituVingiSana
#917 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 7:57:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
BGL wrote:
If you opt to do quarterly announcements then CMA REGULATIONS require that you report at the end of every quarter. KK can follow the route taken by their peers Total if they so wish.


This can't be the case. I know for a fact that ARM does Half Yearly reports, plus another for the 3rd Qtr. The last time they did a report for Q1 I believe was in 2006.

Kenya Re has also reported at Q3 level for the last 3 years, but not for Q1.

In both cases CMA does not seem to have made it a requirement subsequently.

I think Insurance firms + banks have to report quarterly... [Please double check on Insurance Firms. Banks have to coz they fall under the stricter rules of CBK]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#918 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 8:41:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Indeed banks have to publish their results quarterly - CBK requirements not CMA/NSE. Insurance companies under IRA rules actually only have to publish annual results. I have always thought this is way too lenient, given past collapses of insurance companies in Kenya.

Listed insurance companies have to publish their interim results at the half year mark and then annually, under CMA/NSE listing rules.

I am not sure about this , but I think that when a company issues a bond, it then has to report on a quarterly basis.

Note the use of the word publishing as opposed to reporting. I guess you can report to NSE/CMA without necessarily publishing the results (in a newspaper). Car & General has been doing it for years. So has Cititrust. This is one reason for their low prices relative to their book values and earnings in my view. Very few folks know or care how they perform.
guru267
#919 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 8:44:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I think Insurance firms + banks have to report quarterly... [Please double check on Insurance Firms. Banks have to coz they fall under the stricter rules of CBK]


@VVS I beg to differ... Kenya re never reports Q1 and Jubilee only reports H1 and H2... i see no real pattern in some companies' reporting and KK is one of them....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
cnn
#920 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 9:17:34 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
I prefer the wait to next year for the full year financials for KK,anything to extend the pussy footing for those who do not want to see this little gem and allow the believers to get more of it cheaply.The harvest will be in abundance.Only WTK is diverting some my funds that would have found way to KK.
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