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KENOL/KOBIL
mjuaji wa stocks
#881 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 1:09:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/16/2010
Posts: 672
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Huge trades in KK after the announcement that it has settled with KPRL... Remember KK does not have to pay the KShs 600mn KPRL was claiming though it will 'lose' the KShs 4bn that it was claiming from KPRL...


Going forward how will the new processing fee's affect KK's bottom line?





No way!!....it was for all oil marketers not kk only!!!
God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!

VituVingiSana
#882 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 1:13:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Huge trades in KK after the announcement that it has settled with KPRL... Remember KK does not have to pay the KShs 600mn KPRL was claiming though it will 'lose' the KShs 4bn that it was claiming from KPRL...


Going forward how will the new processing fee's affect KK's bottom line?

Yes... I hope KK negotiated some tough conditions as regards quality & yields...

I would have preferred KK take it to court/arbitration. Not happy with the settlement...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wendz
#883 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 1:15:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
the deal wrote:


Going forward how will the new processing fee's affect KK's bottom line?


I would think it would be as much as everybody else in that sector.....
Sasha
#884 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 1:36:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/5/2007
Posts: 627
Though I'm not privy to the terms of the settlement, I would expect that KK agreed to pay the Kshs 600m to KPRL either in tranches or in premiums over and above the usual processing fees. Of course this is if at all the payment of the Kshs 600m is part of the settlement agreement.

Either way, KK's bottomline may suffer more than the other OMC's! Hopefully this can give me a chance to buy more!
alikujia
#885 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 1:42:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
the Segman could be very effective at growing the bottomline but would do better with additional soft skills. Regulatory authorities are just that "authority". Going it alone was a bit suicidal-like. A group approach would have been more effective. Also I still think the chairma/ceo needs separation. never underestimate the capacity of human ego even in intelligent persons.
VituVingiSana
#886 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:02:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Stop hating on Segman... Anyway, I am confident that KK will come out smelling like roses!

KK will not have to pay KShs 600mn even though there may be higher fees going forward thus lower margins...

Lakini, KK showed KPRL, GoK, ERC, KPC... that you don't eff around with KK... Otherwise, you can expect increases in fees all the time...

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#887 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:10:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
If indeed KK will NOT have to pay any amount to KPRL in respect of what KPRL were claiming i.e. the 600 Million, I would consider KK to have prevailed, even if they have had to drop their lawsuit against KPRL.

In any event, In my view Segman was right to have stood up to the bullies from ERC and MoE. It is one more blow in our fight against impunity.
VituVingiSana
#888 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:15:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
If indeed KK will NOT have to pay any amount to KPRL in respect of what KPRL were claiming i.e. the 600 Million, I would consider KK to have prevailed, even if they have had to drop their lawsuit against KPRL.

In any event, In my view Segman was right to have stood up to the bullies from ERC and MoE. It is one more blow in our fight against impunity.
Lakini the 600mn does NOT excite me!!! I was waiting for 4bn...

KK has 1.5bn shares @ 600mn = 0.30 EPS (additional PAT)
4bn would have been 2.00 EPS (additional PAT)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#889 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:27:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Money where my mouth is... Bought some KK [Re-allocation by selling some other shares]

Also order in for KQ @ 42/- but I might have to pay 43/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#890 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:28:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Agreed. We would all have been happier with 4 billion from KPRL but I always considered this to be a long shot, just like that with KPC. If KK wins it will be good but I doubt whether they will get the amount claimed.

My investment case for KK is built on the profits and cash flows being made from operations which are pretty good. If you will recall many of us expected KK's share price to soar to as much as 15 before the problems with KPRL and its enforcers arose. This was primarily based on its very impressive H1 2010 results.
cnn
#891 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 2:43:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
Disappointed that KK will not get the icing from KPRL.But the cake which is why i have been buying KK from last year are KK's financials and company growth into the region.I believe that still holds.I still target 13 by end of April 2011.
Horton
#892 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 3:02:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
http://www.nse.co.ke/new...enolKobil%20October.pdf

Poor show from KK. There is a stick to your guns and there is this. They were in a lose lose situation and dragged this thing on unnecessarily. I think heads should roll for this bubu as I'm sure they lost a lot more than 600m in lost business during the dispute.

I made my cash and got out. Now only holding onto 100k shares residual.
VituVingiSana
#893 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 3:25:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
http://www.nse.co.ke/newsite/pdf/Year%202010/Announcements/KenolKobil%20October.pdf

Poor show from KK. There is a stick to your guns and there is this. They were in a lose lose situation and dragged this thing on unnecessarily. I think heads should roll for this bubu as I'm sure they lost a lot more than 600m in lost business during the dispute.

I made my cash and got out. Now only holding onto 100k shares residual.
Chief, unavuta nini?

KShs 600mn in SALES is not KShs 600mn in CASH or KShs 600mn in PROFITS...

KK may have lost sales of KShs 600mn but the gains in PROFIT is KShs 600mn (less costs)...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#894 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 3:58:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
http://www.nse.co.ke/newsite/pdf/Year%202010/Announcements/KenolKobil%20October.pdf

Poor show from KK. There is a stick to your guns and there is this. They were in a lose lose situation and dragged this thing on unnecessarily. I think heads should roll for this bubu as I'm sure they lost a lot more than 600m in lost business during the dispute.

I made my cash and got out. Now only holding onto 100k shares residual.
Chief, unavuta nini?

KShs 600mn in SALES is not KShs 600mn in CASH or KShs 600mn in PROFITS...

KK may have lost sales of KShs 600mn but the gains in PROFIT is KShs 600mn (less costs)...


@vvs, thanks or the basic buy sell and profit philosophy. However, my point was due to loss of business by not paying the 600m ie not in the loop during the 2 month period, running out of stocks, paying a premium to other sources for fuel, missing out on the OTS action, must have had a significant impact on KK bottom-line. Not sure what you are on about sir.
VituVingiSana
#895 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 4:12:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
http://www.nse.co.ke/newsite/pdf/Year%202010/Announcements/KenolKobil%20October.pdf

Poor show from KK. There is a stick to your guns and there is this. They were in a lose lose situation and dragged this thing on unnecessarily. I think heads should roll for this bubu as I'm sure they lost a lot more than 600m in lost business during the dispute.

I made my cash and got out. Now only holding onto 100k shares residual.
Chief, unavuta nini?

KShs 600mn in SALES is not KShs 600mn in CASH or KShs 600mn in PROFITS...

KK may have lost sales of KShs 600mn but the gains in PROFIT is KShs 600mn (less costs)...


@vvs, thanks or the basic buy sell and profit philosophy. However, my point was due to loss of business by not paying the 600m ie not in the loop during the 2 month period, running out of stocks, paying a premium to other sources for fuel, missing out on the OTS action, must have had a significant impact on KK bottom-line. Not sure what you are on about sir.
Not 600mn worth... KK made 1.17bn in 1H 2010 so I doubt KK 'lost' profits of 600mn in 2 months!

- KK stations had fuel for most of the 2 months. When they did not, others (except NOCK) seemed to be out as well
- KK might have paid a premium for the fuel but they also charged more. At best a loss of sales + margin but not close to 600mn.
- OTS is competitive. The recent winner has always been the politically connected Gulf Energy. Even Shell stayed out. BTW, KK has been an active importer in Tanzania for Zambia + Burundi + Rwanda
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wendz
#896 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 4:19:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
Given that the loss of business should now be over, i doubt we would have gotten this share at the such a discount should this not have happened... i bet i am still good with it.

@Horton,
Its good you already made your money, but i would believe there's still some more money to make with this share.
alikujia
#897 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 6:17:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
@vvs, you are one immovable rock when you take sides, even if it means taking refuge in the wonderful sanctuary of time. I admire that.
VituVingiSana
#898 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 7:23:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
alikujia wrote:
@vvs, you are one immovable rock when you take sides, even if it means taking refuge in the wonderful sanctuary of time. I admire that.
I have tried to look at this firm (KK) inside out as much as possible... I have seen the growth outside Kenya whether in Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, etc... The have 80 stations in Ethiopia [price controls so very low margins] waiting to explode...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#899 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 8:33:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I had never bothered looking into KK but when i saw their results i was dumbfounded that it was trading below 10bob....

Its H1 EPS alone can sustain this price...

When i get into KK i'm selling at 20 between now and 2013
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#900 Posted : Monday, October 11, 2010 8:33:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Horton. At worst, I would expect that KK broke even during the "hostilities". Note that a lot of independents do not participate in OTS and also source product(s) from the majors, yet they continue in business.

H1 2010 EPS was 80 cts. If we assume Zero EPS for Q3 but Q4 continues at the same pace as H1 (i.e. 40 cts EPS), we can look forward to an EPS of Kshs 1.20 which is a PE ratio of less than 10 and lower than that of Total. Total's normalised Headline EPS will probably come in at about Kshs 2, based on H1 2010 - a PE ratio of 15.4 at today's price of 31.25.
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