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could this be possible after 20 yrs of investing from NSE
bartum
#1 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 12:57:51 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
Assuming you have 1.5M to invest in NSE for 20 yrs from now with the returns each year plough back with yearly target of 30% return.
Year 1) 1.5m of 30%=1.95m inclusive of returns.ior
Yr 2) 1.95m of 0.3 = 2.53m ior
yr3) 2.53m of .3 = 3.29m ior
yr4)3.29m of .3 = 4.28m ior
yr5)4.28m of .3 =5.56m ior
yr6)5.56m of .3 =7.2m ior
yr7)7.2m of .3 = 9.45m ior
yr8)9.45m of .3 = 12.2m ior
yr9)12.2m of .3= 15.9m ior
yr10) 15.9m of .3 = 20m ior
yr11) 20m of .3 = 26.9m ior
yr12) 26.9m of .3 = 35.08m ior
yr13)35.08m of .3 = 45.5m ior
yr14)45.5m of .3 = 59m ior
yr15) 59m of .3 = 76.7m ior
yr16) 76.7m of .3 = 99.7m ior
yr17) 99.7m of .3 = 129.6m ior
yr18)129.6m of .3 = 168m ior
yr19)168m of .3 = 218m ior
yr 20) 218m of .3 = 283.56m
above exclude broker commissions which can be calculated as 3trades per year multiplied by 2 multiplied by 1.8% of approx 200m.= 21m
net comes to no less than 260m and i take early retirement with a hse in kitusuru
who sayslife ni ngumu ukijipanga.
Regards
Horton
#2 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:08:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
yes...the magic of compounding...one thing I must say is, you will have off years and the bigger the sum, the harder it is to keep compounding at hose big rates...

U have been reading "Buffetology" havent u?
the deal
#3 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:12:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Bartum in your 36% year on year return u didnt factor in things like droughts, bears, recessions n the political risk...there will years on the NSE during that period when breaking even will be impossible...remember 2007-2008...the market is cyclical my brother...
bartum
#4 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:13:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
yes...the magic of compounding...one thing I must say is, you will have off years and the bigger the sum, the harder it is to keep compounding at hose big rates...

U have been reading "Buffetology" havent u?

who told you to read my mind.
Any way nse creates riches
kyukkamba
#5 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:14:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/28/2010
Posts: 151
Compound Interest Calculator:-

Inputs

Current Principal: ksh.1,500,000
Annual Addition: ksh 0.00
Years to grow: 20 years
Interest Rate: 30%
Compound interest 1 time(s) annually
Make additions at start of each compounding period.

Results Future Value:Ksh.285,074,456.62
Ni Uhuru wa Mbesha...Niguo kana tiguo?
bartum
#6 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:17:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
@Bartum in your 36% year on year return u didnt factor in things like droughts, bears, recessions n the political risk...there will years on the NSE during that period when breaking even will be impossible...remember 2007-2008...the market is cyclical my brother...

if i make -ve returns in some years is it not posssible to make above 50% in some yrs to compensate. Just my thoughts
the deal
#7 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 1:29:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
bartum wrote:
the deal wrote:
@Bartum in your 36% year on year return u didnt factor in things like droughts, bears, recessions n the political risk...there will years on the NSE during that period when breaking even will be impossible...remember 2007-2008...the market is cyclical my brother...

if i make -ve returns in some years is it not posssible to make above 50% in some yrs to compensate. Just my thoughts

i'm not saying that's not possible...that brings me to another thing company risk..look at EA Cable a one time Blue chip...do u think in 10-15 yrs time we will see Cables at 140 again...then theres market psychology i.e ur nerves...unless u quit wazua n go to a shambaa somewhere the urge to trade will be there...i have realised what those American investment books tell us doesnt work on the NSE a market of inside traders...
guru267
#8 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:20:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
unless u quit wazua n go to a shambaa somewhere the urge to trade will be there...i have realised what those American investment books tell us doesnt work on the NSE a market of inside traders...


This is soooo true... i never thought i would sell KPLC but damn i actually traded it when the info came out...

By the way compounding is a very sound strategy that i'm very fond of using but i never speculate while compounding... EVER
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:38:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Weka 1.5 equity ama kcb. Bila shaka utapata 260 yako. The power of compounding!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
sheep
#10 Posted : Sunday, October 10, 2010 2:49:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
hata ukiwa na all the insider info hauwezi average 30%....20% is more like it.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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