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KQ in 2010-11 (Boom, Bust or Blah)
sparkly
#241 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 3:04:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Pierce wrote:
Good people,

After a 12 month fight bravely borne, I have taken my flight at 45.

It's an extremely PAINFUL( 32% )loss, but I just figured the worst days lie ahead.

Remember UCHUMI!!

Banks......here I come.

@pierce ?????. achana na stocks. Get something else to do.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Pierce
#242 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 3:18:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
@ Sparkly,

Wait and see the drama unfold..........the staff issues KQ is experiencing drastically touch on the core of their operations!!

Worse still they may require that moving forward flight operations are scaled down by about 40%.
the deal
#243 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 3:32:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Pierce i dont even think the strike will take place...it's business as usual i just booked today KQ Joburg-Nairobi for nxt week Thursday...wait until foreigners start loading the shares with their big pockets...
Pierce
#244 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 4:19:34 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
Well I sincerely hope the strike does not take place.

On the last strike, actually 12 hours before the strike passengers were still booking normally for travel in the next few days!!
mlennyma
#245 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 6:11:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
I pray for the strike to kick off so that there is enough blood on the streets
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#246 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 7:48:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Reading today's trading analysis... Most buyers are foreigners & 100% sellers were local...

Kenyans panicking? LOL... Perhaps @Horton can tell us if the strike threats are valid?

KQ claims the threats are power plays due to internal politicking by union members...

I say if any KQ staff go on strike over this... just fire them... Let those who want to work, work...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#247 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 8:02:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mlennyma wrote:
I pray for the strike to kick off so that there is enough blood on the streets


I am with you on this one. I picked up some ex-div @45 and I am looking for more. A strike would be disruptive in the short run. However, subsequent layoffs would restore the balance of power back to management/shareholders and rationalise staff costs. Better to run the loss now in exchange for ENHANCED future profits.
guru267
#248 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 8:04:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Reading today's trading analysis... Most buyers are foreigners & 100% sellers were local...

Kenyans panicking? LOL... Perhaps @Horton can tell us if the strike threats are valid?

KQ claims the threats are power plays due to internal politicking by union members...

I say if any KQ staff go on strike over this... just fire them... Let those who want to work, work...


@VVS they might be selling because of your "fire them mentality".... who will work for KQ then??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#249 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 9:58:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
I pray for the strike to kick off so that there is enough blood on the streets

I am with you on this one. I picked up some ex-div @45 and I am looking for more. A strike would be disruptive in the short run. However, subsequent layoffs would restore the balance of power back to management/shareholders and rationalise staff costs. Better to run the loss now in exchange for ENHANCED future profits.

AMEN...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#250 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:01:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Reading today's trading analysis... Most buyers are foreigners & 100% sellers were local...

Kenyans panicking? LOL... Perhaps @Horton can tell us if the strike threats are valid?

KQ claims the threats are power plays due to internal politicking by union members...

I say if any KQ staff go on strike over this... just fire them... Let those who want to work, work...

@VVS they might be selling because of your "fire them mentality".... who will work for KQ then??
No employee is irreplaceable...
Even kings, popes, presidents...

Those who want to work can continue working... those who do not want to by going on strike... well, we can do without them... It hurts in the short-term then in 6 months they will be forgotten!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#251 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:12:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Kenya Airways dismisses talk about competition threat

http://www.eturbonews.co...bout-competition-threat

"Traffic volumes are generally up, tourism is booming again, and business travel has completely revived."

"I think at times, some in the media are submitting to wishful thinking or are influenced by other considerations when they talk about KQ this and KQ that."

"...we are very liquid, even new aircraft purchases are solidly financed."

"...between Nairobi and Juba, has already seen KQ’s share rise into the 30 percent margins..." [This was from a ZERO market share in less than 3 months]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Eddy
#252 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:12:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/20/2006
Posts: 277
Guys tread very carefully on this one, the strike issue should have investors worried. The statement that was put up in the press is an indication that management is very concerned. Though 350 million might look small change the disruptions would dent KQ's image seriously on two fronts as a uncaring employer and strike prone airline.
VituVingiSana
#253 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:15:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Eddy wrote:
Guys tread very carefully on this one, the strike issue should have investors worried. The statement that was put up in the press is an indication that management is very concerned. Though 350 million might look small change the disruptions would dent KQ's image seriously on two fronts as a uncaring employer and strike prone airline.

The issue is 'internal' to the Unions but will affect KQ... therefore, if the strike is declared illegal... I say FIRE the fools!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#254 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 6:10:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
KQ can't just dismiss that there is no competition regionally. VVS, did you read the article saying 540 has the most destinations regionally?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#255 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 6:59:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
KQ can't just dismiss that there is no competition regionally. VVS, did you read the article saying 540 has the most destinations regionally?
LOL... nope, they did not say that! And KQ would be lying if they said so!

I admire what Fly540 has done... captured a market KQ has floundered about coz of their unwieldy structure... Sort of the Equity Bank of airlines!

The article seems to be about the GROWTH in the entire market (which KQ could not fulfill coz of lack of aircraft) so the cake is much larger (of which KQ has a smaller share) with a larger slice...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
seketes
#256 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 10:01:21 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/17/2010
Posts: 35
Location: nairobi
KQ reaping from juba route. expecting good profits this year.
am guesing they are making 50m in that route a month.
mwanahisa
#257 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:29:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Eddy, If the staff go on strike this time round, I do not anticipate them getting their way. It will also be an opportunity to prune some of the unproductive workers.

I hold 41K shares in KQ and I am sure my investment will suffer in the short run, in the event of a strike. But if mgt keeps on giving in to staff demands without proportionate increase in productivity, I do not seen KQ ever reclaiming its rightful value.

So, Yes I would welcome the strike if that's what it is going to take and YES I will BUY more as the price goes down. Incidentally, the likes of SAA and BA are much more strike prone than KQ and they are still flying high.
VituVingiSana
#258 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:57:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
If the PRODUCTIVITY rises with PAY then fine... but not just coz KQ staff 'think' they deserve more!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#259 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 1:04:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@seketes, your numbers seem to defy my logic. Assume KQ uses Embraer 170 (80 seats single class config) running a load factor of 70% for 5 days a week (20 days/month) and charging US$ 300 per pax at an exchange rate of ksh 80 gives a gross of 27 Million. Sasa 50M inatoka wapi?
VituVingiSana
#260 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 1:16:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@seketes, your numbers seem to defy my logic. Assume KQ uses Embraer 170 (80 seats single class config) running a load factor of 70% for 5 days a week (20 days/month) and charging US$ 300 per pax at an exchange rate of ksh 80 gives a gross of 27 Million. Sasa 50M inatoka wapi?
I like KQ but @GG points out there is a difference between logic & BS...

Even if KQ flew daily @ 100% PLF = 80 pax x $300 x 30 days x KES 80 = KES 57.6 mn per month [REVENUE not profits]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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