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Realities of Forex Investment
The Merchant
#481 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 1:01:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Been doing it demo 1 year and live 2 years.
fxtech
#482 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 2:24:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@merchant doing great, the last one week has been off the hook, the EURCAD,EURUSD,USDJPY,AUDUSD,CHFJPY,AUDCAD, have jst bn sooooo wow, n I gess we wl see alot frm the pairs ths week,wht do u thnk,by the way I hit over 900 pips on ths pairs
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
alikujia
#483 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 4:20:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2010
Posts: 324
Location: nrb
Congrats @Merchant. Not many retailers survive fx for 2yrs
The Merchant
#484 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 6:02:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
fxtech wrote:
@merchant doing great, the last one week has been off the hook, the EURCAD,EURUSD,USDJPY,AUDUSD,CHFJPY,AUDCAD, have jst bn sooooo wow, n I gess we wl see alot frm the pairs ths week,wht do u thnk,by the way I hit over 900 pips on ths pairs

900 PIPS! Thats insane! Maybe I should also trade on more pairs. If you are trading a live forex account, a standard one, you are in the money!! Applause Applause
hisah
#485 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 6:38:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I also like AUDCAD and AUDNZD. But if there's a risk shock (and i expect one soon due to bad US econ data and red hot euro debt crisis) I'll reverse to the sell side since AUD is overbought to the bullish extremes and will likely fall the hardest. Just like JPY was overbought on bullish extremes before BoJ intervention. For now I'm hooked to the Aussie crosses. I would like to long the JPY crosses, but intervention of BoJ makes it murky for now regardless of the fact that they may assist on these trade setups.
Other trade ideas are USDCHF which is about bearish extreme - contrarian play, but I want it to take out the 2008 lows before I can think of an entry (catching a falling knife can lead to margin calls, but the risk rewards can be outsize). These are weekly setups (could last 4-6 weeks).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#486 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 1:36:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah, we sailing in the same boat, very interesting turn of events am expecting esp frm AUD N JPY pairs, @merchant maybe n maybe not, u can try working outside ur usuall pairs bt test if it works 4 u coz it may backfire. gud opportunities on GBPUSD, GBPCHF
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
The Merchant
#487 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 2:57:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
fxtech wrote:
@hisah, we sailing in the same boat, very interesting turn of events am expecting esp frm AUD N JPY pairs, @merchant maybe n maybe not, u can try working outside ur usuall pairs bt test if it works 4 u coz it may backfire. gud opportunities on GBPUSD, GBPCHF

@fxtech, Ill take the tip. Maybe Ill demo trade on some new pairs until I am sure I can add them to my basket without lowering the value.
fxtech
#488 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 3:57:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@merchant, pls do,letmeknw how it goes,hv look at USDCHF, CADJPY shorts, eurcad long, shld give u arnd 70pips
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#489 Posted : Friday, October 01, 2010 12:24:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Anyone aware that Ireland cancelled all the remaining bond auctions for 2010. The Euro has ignored this info, but for how long. I've taken a small size short on EURCAD @1.4020 since it failed to make a higher daily high and an overbought RSI. I'll ride it for a day or two - still bullish on the weekly so I make it a short trade. Took a larger short on AUDCAD on sharp rejection at parity level. This is the high for Sept and will be for a month or. two. Also the overbought slow stochastics plus RSI on the daily and weekly call for a large correction. GBPUSD also looks bearish on today's daily candle. But I'm not willing to play long $ now though the USDCHF looks like it will close higher today making a reversal after taking out the 2008 lows today. I'll wait for next week to confirm if indeed it's a true reversal then I can play my catching a falling knife reversal. Then the $ index also needs to regain the 81 handle to make it safe going long $ vs the other majors.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#490 Posted : Friday, October 01, 2010 10:35:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah insightful details ryt there, i'm also shocked by the EUR bt 2dy will be testing day EURUSD, anythng on gbpchf, shorts luks lyk it 4 th day
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#491 Posted : Sunday, October 03, 2010 10:53:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
fxtech wrote:
@hisah insightful details ryt there, i'm also shocked by the EUR bt 2dy will be testing day EURUSD, anythng on gbpchf, shorts luks lyk it 4 th day

I never expected the EURUSD to break above 1.3740 and almost took out my EURCAD short stoploss, but duly reversed & closed @1.4043. This € rally is madness with the eurozone fundamentals! But trading ugly sisters like the €/$ or £/$ is too risky since their economies are in bad shape & hard to place a proper rate on them. This is why i prefer the aussie crosses. The $ index weekly still very bearish, i'd expect more $ losses for another week. As for the GBP trades, I think GBPAUD is better than GBPCHF now that BoE says they too want a QE just like their US Fed brothers. Bearish for GBP. I'm also looking at EURGBP reaction towards the 0.88 handle. A strong break should increase GBP losses.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#492 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:08:56 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@hisah u just the man, infact I was logging in to update you on EURGBP, I'm long looking to lake in atleast 70pips, wow I like the fundamental analysis u bring 2 the forum, CUDOS!!!!!
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
hisah
#493 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 1:37:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I've also gone short on the DAX @6200 and FTSE @5587. Both of them have broken below the daily chart raising wedge. I'm most bearish on the DAX since the daily and weekly are now pointing to more losses. As for FTSE, I'm trying to fade 5600 as the top with all these euro debt crisis. Stoploss for DAX @6300 and FTSE 5640. I'm also tempted to short the Hang Seng since it has been rising on gap ups and a bearish daily close today. Most major global equities have been rallying on gap ups, which has never been a bullish indicator. Gaps up or down are eventually filled and they're many at the bottom!? But I'm not so comfy with going short Hang Seng since China econ data is still bullish.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$FTSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DAX
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$HSI

I'm waiting for NY open. If Nasdaq hits 2020, I'll short it. This is my favourite for US stock indices. And it is very attractive on the short side since it has many gap ups (7 in total) which means if they all get filled, that will be at the May 2010 lows! This makes the downside risks quite heavy for the bulls if also factor in the Sept rally has been on volumes fumes (very thin). This year in March and April it also rallied from the Feb lows on thin volume and failed (infamous flash crash). The July - Sept rally after the flash crash has also been on lower volume?! How the likes of the CNBC analysts like Jim Cramer et al can call this bullish with very awful US econ data is sheer madness. The Fed POMO has been defending 10K on Dow, but I expect this level to break since the POMO is over. Even if QE2.0 is unleashed, the downside risks are larger than upside momentum since the first round of stimulus $800B proved that debt monetization cannot solve debt issues. And with Central banks fighting each other with currency devaluations (Apr 2009 - G20 promised this won't happen...), well you can form your own opinions on how long this global recovery is sustainable. For global stocks, I'm bearish all the way to 2015 when this debt bubble will finally deflate with nasty consequences like food inflation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
The Merchant
#494 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 2:08:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
hisah wrote:
I've also gone short on the DAX @6200 and FTSE @5587. Both of them have broken below the daily chart raising wedge. I'm most bearish on the DAX since the daily and weekly are now pointing to more losses. As for FTSE, I'm trying to fade 5600 as the top with all these euro debt crisis. Stoploss for DAX @6300 and FTSE 5640. I'm also tempted to short the Hang Seng since it has been rising on gap ups and a bearish daily close today. Most major global equities have been rallying on gap ups, which has never been a bullish indicator. Gaps up or down are eventually filled and they're many at the bottom!? But I'm not so comfy with going short Hang Seng since China econ data is still bullish.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$FTSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DAX
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$HSI

I'm waiting for NY open. If Nasdaq hits 2020, I'll short it. This is my favourite for US stock indices. And it is very attractive on the short side since it has many gap ups (7 in total) which means if they all get filled, that will be at the May 2010 lows! This makes the downside risks quite heavy for the bulls if also factor in the Sept rally has been on volumes fumes (very thin). This year in March and April it also rallied from the Feb lows on thin volume and failed (infamous flash crash). The July - Sept rally after the flash crash has also been on lower volume?! How the likes of the CNBC analysts like Jim Cramer et al can call this bullish with very awful US econ data is sheer madness. The Fed POMO has been defending 10K on Dow, but I expect this level to break since the POMO is over. Even if QE2.0 is unleashed, the downside risks are larger than upside momentum since the first round of stimulus $800B proved that debt monetization cannot solve debt issues. And with Central banks fighting each other with currency devaluations (Apr 2009 - G20 promised this won't happen...), well you can form your own opinions on how long this global recovery is sustainable. For global stocks, I'm bearish all the way to 2015 when this debt bubble will finally deflate with nasty consequences like food inflation.

So you trade Stock indices..Hmmmm...How did you get into this? Are you using a prop trading firm? Let me in bro.
hisah
#495 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 2:34:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FXCM UK.

I'm liking the EURCHF sell off just 3 hours into London Session. This points to more euro losses this week. The EURUSD 1.38 has the look and feel of a high for the week, but a break below 1.3620 is required to confirm reversal.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
fxtech
#496 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 8:46:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2010
Posts: 325
Location: NAIROBI
@merchant, Hisah is just in a world of his own, those updates are just off the hook, wht's ur take maybe we shld see n hear more of him.
Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
The Merchant
#497 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:44:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
fxtech wrote:
@merchant, Hisah is just in a world of his own, those updates are just off the hook, wht's ur take maybe we shld see n hear more of him.

Well researched contributions are always welcome.
hisah
#498 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:11:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Some opportunity with GBPAUD long setup. If it can breakout of that downtrend line (30 day - 1hr timeframe) that will confirm bullish reversal - this is a weekly setup (1 - 2 weeks). A strong break of 1.64 is required. Tuesday 0330GMT we have the RBA rate decision. Most analysts expect a rate hike of 25bps (from 4.50% to 4.75%). Even if they're right I expect the Aussie to be sold into any rallies since we have to many bulls and the aussie has been toppy since last Wednesday. If AUDCAD gets back to 0.9980 levels, I'll add more shorts. As for the AUDNZD short, this one is crawling, but I'll keep it with a breakeven stop (1.3090) in case it fails. EURCAD is working fine - I'll let it run for another day.

@fxtech - I hope you got out of EURGBP, this one is topped out on the daily, which points to GBP strength for a day or two. The large bearish down candle formed today confirms euro losses and note that EURGBP daily RSI is still overbought! Down target 0.8560.

http://web6.twitpic.com/...397.4caa2b38-scaled.jpg - GBPAUD trend

DAX and FTSE shorts are also working fine. I like big reversals (bullish or bearish) on Mondays since they dictate the week's direction. Wednesdays are usually strong weekly trend movers. I expect more global stock losses this week.

Took a small Nasdaq short @ 1988 for an open objective - no targets yet - stoploss at 2025 (daily double top - been stuck at this top since Sept 22nd).Intraday it has already filled one of the gaps at 1960 which leaves 6 more gaps below to go. So far a very bearish daily candle has formed. More losses for the week with the MACD histogram rolling over with the overbought stochastics following suit. The Dow and S&P too can be shorted, but I prefer the Nasdaq since it is the weakest as per the many gaps up.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX - Nasdaq index daily chart

For this week, I'll concentrate on the GBPAUD and USDCHF - both contra plays. For GBPAUD, I've put a buy order at 1.6280, just in case it spikes down through 1.6300 during the rate announcement overnight. Stop at today's open - 1.6275 (15pips of risk), but the potential for upside is roughly 200pips subject to 1.64 is broken. As for USDCHF, if it can touch below 0.9700 on impulse (quick selloff), that should hint a bottom if a reversal ensues and closes the day higher. This is when the euro losses will beginning in earnest.

All the best in your trading.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
qw25041985
#499 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:21:09 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ hisah. thats quite a mouthful. you definately know what you are doing.i lik you Nasdaq play and all thew other indexes you are shorting. after the rally thoughout september i also expect the indexes to come falling down on profit taking.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
hisah
#500 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:03:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
qw25041985 wrote:
@ hisah. thats quite a mouthful. you definately know what you are doing.i lik you Nasdaq play and all thew other indexes you are shorting. after the rally thoughout september i also expect the indexes to come falling down on profit taking.


Bogus fundamentals is what will kill these markets as the bulls finally lose hope.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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