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Mumias results
qw25041985
#251 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 12:17:14 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@pkoli. Not only is the drought in brazil bad but so many countries have raised their sugar import quota due to faild crops that the global surplus has been cut to just 1 mill. tons. India cant match all these demand with the crop that will be coming into the market in October and thats y the sugar futures in newyork are high.
I c a rally in mumias w/ a corresponding rally in sugar prices internationally.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
winston
#252 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:29:38 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Wasnt there some small bit in the results released that alluded to MSC raising money for ethanol production through debt and equity? Now that they have gotten the debt and will fund the rest from internal sources, what will be the impact on PBT come next year end (before ethanol production kicks in)?
Wa_ithaka
#253 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:50:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Winston-just the cash from the "O-oohs"
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
the deal
#254 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:07:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@qw it's foolish to focus only on the Sugar prices on the international market and say MSC will rally...MSC needs to cane to process in order to sell on those international market...if its raining like cats and dogs in Western Kenya(i assume thats were Mumias) and Msc doesnt get enough cane to process then problems come in...MSC needs TARDA to survive not ethanol...
ProverB
#255 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:18:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
the deal wrote:
@qw it's foolish to focus only on the Sugar prices on the international market and say MSC will rally...MSC needs to cane to process in order to sell on those international market...if its raining like cats and dogs in Western Kenya(i assume thats were Mumias) and Msc doesnt get enough cane to process then problems come in...MSC needs TARDA to survive not ethanol...


Applause Applause
who is the biggest consumer of Mumias Co output?..before we go so far away..just regionally?

what is kenya's consumption of sugar?..even before we talk comesa region..

Entire comesa consumes about 6Billion tonnes..yet entire region produces only 4.6 Billion tonnes.. at the end of the day..there woill always be demand for mumias sugar..

how profitable mumias gets from such demand will turn depends with its competitive advantage in the industry as well as entire comesa region.. How cost efficient mumias gets by the day..on sugar production..

Medium term loan to develop elec generation is a huge plus

ethanol is a by product of whatever they do..but good on this front..

All in all..prospectives point north for the co..
HoWEvER!!..these factors are only reflected in share price really long termiously (sic smile )..and downtrend..uptrend potrayed in the share price is basically speculation.. fear/greed at the best..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mwanahisa
#256 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:48:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
ProverB, I would urge you to check your figures regarding this statement:

"Entire comesa consumes about 6Billion tonnes..yet entire region produces only 4.6 Billion tonnes.. at the end of the day..there woill always be demand for mumias sugar.."

There's no way that COMESA can consume 6 Billion tonnes of Ssugar cane, let alone sugar. Last year Mumias which produces roughly half of Kenya's sugar output processed 2.3 MILLION tonnes of sugar cane and produced 235,792 tonnes of sugar.

Based on these figures, you can see Kenya's consumption of sugar CANNOT exceed 1 MILLION tonnes of sugar. Multiply that by the 20 odd countries in COMESA. How do you come up with BILLIONS of tonnes?

I do agree with your statement that there will always be demand for Mumias Sugar. Question is can they produce it a competitive cost?
ProverB
#257 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:57:49 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mwanahisa wrote:
ProverB,
There's no way that COMESA can consume 6 Billion tonnes of Ssugar cane, let alone sugar. Last year Mumias which produces roughly half of Kenya's sugar output processed 2.3 MILLION tonnes of sugar cane and produced 235,792 tonnes of sugar.


Hey! should have put a caveat..i'm quoting Kidero from late night news jana..

Even so..
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Kenya%20sugar%20output%20at%20a%20record%20in%202009/-/1006/925468/-/t6tohmz/-/index.html wrote:

Mumias Sugar produced 45.3 per cent of the total sugar.

Although the east African nation has a deal with the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade bloc to restrict imports from the bloc to 200,000 tonnes per year to protect its industry, members supplied only 40 per cent.

The main supplier of sugar was Saudi Arabia with 47,479 tonnes, followed by South Africa with 46,584 tonnes.

The sugar board said global consumption was outpacing production.

Kenya's sugar consumption is estimated at some 750,000 tonnes in 2009



..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
VituVingiSana
#258 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 2:12:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@proverb - The world population is approx 7bn [needs rechecking]

6 billion tons for 7 billion means 875kgs per person per year. Over 2 kgs/day/person...

Now say COMESA has 1 billion [very generous] people = 6,000 kgs/person/year = 16 kgs per day... Does that sound right to you???
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#259 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 2:31:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
VituVingiSana wrote:
@proverb - The world population is approx 7bn [needs rechecking]

6 billion tons for 7 billion means 875kgs per person per year. Over 2 kgs/day/person...

Now say COMESA has 1 billion [very generous] people = 6,000 kgs/person/year = 16 kgs per day... Does that sound right to you???


Tehehehe!.. i need to cut down on sembe-dondo diners! must have heard my on stuff..

Anyway..mumias sugar touts itself to control 60% sugar consumed in Kenya...plus that entire kenyan industry can only meet 45% local sugar requirements..the rest is covered by brazil/south africa imports..

The comesa agreement is slated to end in 2012? (not so sure)..making the industry liberal then..at that point..open flood gate to cheap imports then..it will be a massacre then i think..for inefficient n ineffective domestic producers..

mumias has better chances thanx to the brand, ethanol production..and full scale elect generation for the national grid..

my point at first was to QW..before we go "international sugar prices"..Mumias Sugar Co should be looked at as what it is doing here and now to combat with future liberal trade ties..starting 2012..to gauge its survival.. though i think the shareholders have to really think hard coz drama bado and 2012 is just hapa tu!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
youcan'tstopusnow
#260 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:50:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Comesa sugar will mean cheaper prices for us. Great for consumers! Just like the entry of Bharti. I don't care where my sugar comes from. Globalisation/Capitalism! Local sugar firms should step up their game or it will be bad for them come 2012
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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