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Mumias results
qw25041985
#241 Posted : Friday, September 17, 2010 3:28:24 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@ hisah . Lol. What is the panic for. Goldman sachs just raised the price forecast for white sugar and i expect speculators to flood mumias accordingly .
More so 12.00 is a very strong support and has bn testd and provd to be so.
I wait for the rally in a relaxd posture w/ a tooth pick in my mouth and druming the table w/ my fingers. Hehe. Come monday well get a clear pic . And more so mumias is over sold right now .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
the deal
#242 Posted : Friday, September 17, 2010 3:56:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@qw are u a sugar trader?
hisah
#243 Posted : Friday, September 17, 2010 6:58:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
qw25041985 wrote:
@ hisah . Lol. What is the panic for. Goldman sachs just raised the price forecast for white sugar and i expect speculators to flood mumias accordingly .
More so 12.00 is a very strong support and has bn testd and provd to be so.
I wait for the rally in a relaxd posture w/ a tooth pick in my mouth and druming the table w/ my fingers. Hehe. Come monday well get a clear pic . And more so mumias is over sold right now .


A broken yearly uptrend channel is not a very nice sign. And no, I'm not in a panic, I'm just stating what the indicators are saying. So until 13.50 is reclaimed and held, I'm neutral on this. Also if the retest of 12/- is not successfully depended like KQ's 45/- or Unga's 11.50/- or CFC's 40/- support levels, don't count it as a strong support yet. I hope this makes it more clear.
Have you seen the global market reversal today with huge sell volume esp on the S&P and FTSE today? Smart money is back, but on the sell side. On ugly Friday reversal. If it closes like this next week is a selling week and with such volumes coming in, the bear trend still stands. Also Ireland banking union has called an emergency meeting as of this hour. On Thursday Credit-Default Swaps for Ireland rose to a record 425 basis pts up from 387 on Thurs meaning that it now costs EU425,000/yr to insure 10M of bonds. Very tense this money system and stock markets cannot justify a bull in this state of affairs.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
PKoli
#244 Posted : Saturday, September 18, 2010 4:25:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
qw25041985 wrote:
@ hisah . Lol. What is the panic for. Goldman sachs just raised the price forecast for white sugar and i expect speculators to flood mumias accordingly .
More so 12.00 is a very strong support and has bn testd and provd to be so.
I wait for the rally in a relaxd posture w/ a tooth pick in my mouth and druming the table w/ my fingers. Hehe. Come monday well get a clear pic . And more so mumias is over sold right now .


I am tempted to buy into this sugar company. Anywhere below 12 looks enticing to me
ProverB
#245 Posted : Monday, September 20, 2010 6:11:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
hisah wrote:
ProverB wrote:
GoodNeSS Me!!! QW did not offload at 13?? Oh My!

..si i thought according to T.A..for a short term trader when a 5day MACD cuts downward the 20 day MACD unashuka the counter?


True. Plus a host of other indicators confirming the negative direction. This is why I stated if 13.50 is not regained, downside risks persist. And that point appears on the year chart trend line, which makes the short term (3 - 6mths) downward trending with short term support at 12/-. But since it's been broken recently, another break is likely.


You guys just complicate stuff!! Host of biggest share holders cannot even spell NSE right yet they make more money than i do with fancy analysis!
Crap!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
guru267
#246 Posted : Monday, September 20, 2010 6:14:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
hisah wrote:
ProverB wrote:
GoodNeSS Me!!! QW did not offload at 13?? Oh My!

..si i thought according to T.A..for a short term trader when a 5day MACD cuts downward the 20 day MACD unashuka the counter?


True. Plus a host of other indicators confirming the negative direction. This is why I stated if 13.50 is not regained, downside risks persist. And that point appears on the year chart trend line, which makes the short term (3 - 6mths) downward trending with short term support at 12/-. But since it's been broken recently, another break is likely.


You guys just complicate stuff!! Host of biggest share holders cannot even spell NSE right yet they make more money than i do with fancy analysis!
Crap!

@proverb proper T.A backed by fundamentals is extremely useful in trading stocks...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Njung'e
#247 Posted : Monday, September 20, 2010 6:27:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Sad
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Njung'e
#248 Posted : Friday, September 24, 2010 2:49:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
11.75 .....Brick wall Brick wall

11 next week?Pray

where is "Global sijui nini nyef nyef"Laughing out loudly
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Gordon Gekko
#249 Posted : Friday, September 24, 2010 2:52:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
My biggest chunk - 12.85 Sad Sad Sad
PKoli
#250 Posted : Monday, September 27, 2010 8:58:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
Management in denial Comesa is 2012 and they dont say when TARDA is starting...Cogeneration...KPLC is screwing them up...going foward the 1H results wont be as good as the last one...will we get MSC cheap...YES...


Maybe the performance of Sugar production in Brazil could come to the aid of MSC, thanks to the La Nina weather phenomenon. Brazil is experiencing one of the worst grought in a decade, see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-24.
qw25041985
#251 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 12:17:14 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@pkoli. Not only is the drought in brazil bad but so many countries have raised their sugar import quota due to faild crops that the global surplus has been cut to just 1 mill. tons. India cant match all these demand with the crop that will be coming into the market in October and thats y the sugar futures in newyork are high.
I c a rally in mumias w/ a corresponding rally in sugar prices internationally.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
winston
#252 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:29:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Wasnt there some small bit in the results released that alluded to MSC raising money for ethanol production through debt and equity? Now that they have gotten the debt and will fund the rest from internal sources, what will be the impact on PBT come next year end (before ethanol production kicks in)?
Wa_ithaka
#253 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:50:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Winston-just the cash from the "O-oohs"
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
the deal
#254 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:07:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@qw it's foolish to focus only on the Sugar prices on the international market and say MSC will rally...MSC needs to cane to process in order to sell on those international market...if its raining like cats and dogs in Western Kenya(i assume thats were Mumias) and Msc doesnt get enough cane to process then problems come in...MSC needs TARDA to survive not ethanol...
ProverB
#255 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:18:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
the deal wrote:
@qw it's foolish to focus only on the Sugar prices on the international market and say MSC will rally...MSC needs to cane to process in order to sell on those international market...if its raining like cats and dogs in Western Kenya(i assume thats were Mumias) and Msc doesnt get enough cane to process then problems come in...MSC needs TARDA to survive not ethanol...


Applause Applause
who is the biggest consumer of Mumias Co output?..before we go so far away..just regionally?

what is kenya's consumption of sugar?..even before we talk comesa region..

Entire comesa consumes about 6Billion tonnes..yet entire region produces only 4.6 Billion tonnes.. at the end of the day..there woill always be demand for mumias sugar..

how profitable mumias gets from such demand will turn depends with its competitive advantage in the industry as well as entire comesa region.. How cost efficient mumias gets by the day..on sugar production..

Medium term loan to develop elec generation is a huge plus

ethanol is a by product of whatever they do..but good on this front..

All in all..prospectives point north for the co..
HoWEvER!!..these factors are only reflected in share price really long termiously (sic smile )..and downtrend..uptrend potrayed in the share price is basically speculation.. fear/greed at the best..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mwanahisa
#256 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:48:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
ProverB, I would urge you to check your figures regarding this statement:

"Entire comesa consumes about 6Billion tonnes..yet entire region produces only 4.6 Billion tonnes.. at the end of the day..there woill always be demand for mumias sugar.."

There's no way that COMESA can consume 6 Billion tonnes of Ssugar cane, let alone sugar. Last year Mumias which produces roughly half of Kenya's sugar output processed 2.3 MILLION tonnes of sugar cane and produced 235,792 tonnes of sugar.

Based on these figures, you can see Kenya's consumption of sugar CANNOT exceed 1 MILLION tonnes of sugar. Multiply that by the 20 odd countries in COMESA. How do you come up with BILLIONS of tonnes?

I do agree with your statement that there will always be demand for Mumias Sugar. Question is can they produce it a competitive cost?
ProverB
#257 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:57:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mwanahisa wrote:
ProverB,
There's no way that COMESA can consume 6 Billion tonnes of Ssugar cane, let alone sugar. Last year Mumias which produces roughly half of Kenya's sugar output processed 2.3 MILLION tonnes of sugar cane and produced 235,792 tonnes of sugar.


Hey! should have put a caveat..i'm quoting Kidero from late night news jana..

Even so..
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Kenya%20sugar%20output%20at%20a%20record%20in%202009/-/1006/925468/-/t6tohmz/-/index.html wrote:

Mumias Sugar produced 45.3 per cent of the total sugar.

Although the east African nation has a deal with the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade bloc to restrict imports from the bloc to 200,000 tonnes per year to protect its industry, members supplied only 40 per cent.

The main supplier of sugar was Saudi Arabia with 47,479 tonnes, followed by South Africa with 46,584 tonnes.

The sugar board said global consumption was outpacing production.

Kenya's sugar consumption is estimated at some 750,000 tonnes in 2009



..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
VituVingiSana
#258 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 2:12:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,241
Location: Nairobi
@proverb - The world population is approx 7bn [needs rechecking]

6 billion tons for 7 billion means 875kgs per person per year. Over 2 kgs/day/person...

Now say COMESA has 1 billion [very generous] people = 6,000 kgs/person/year = 16 kgs per day... Does that sound right to you???
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#259 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 2:31:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
VituVingiSana wrote:
@proverb - The world population is approx 7bn [needs rechecking]

6 billion tons for 7 billion means 875kgs per person per year. Over 2 kgs/day/person...

Now say COMESA has 1 billion [very generous] people = 6,000 kgs/person/year = 16 kgs per day... Does that sound right to you???


Tehehehe!.. i need to cut down on sembe-dondo diners! must have heard my on stuff..

Anyway..mumias sugar touts itself to control 60% sugar consumed in Kenya...plus that entire kenyan industry can only meet 45% local sugar requirements..the rest is covered by brazil/south africa imports..

The comesa agreement is slated to end in 2012? (not so sure)..making the industry liberal then..at that point..open flood gate to cheap imports then..it will be a massacre then i think..for inefficient n ineffective domestic producers..

mumias has better chances thanx to the brand, ethanol production..and full scale elect generation for the national grid..

my point at first was to QW..before we go "international sugar prices"..Mumias Sugar Co should be looked at as what it is doing here and now to combat with future liberal trade ties..starting 2012..to gauge its survival.. though i think the shareholders have to really think hard coz drama bado and 2012 is just hapa tu!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
youcan'tstopusnow
#260 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:50:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Comesa sugar will mean cheaper prices for us. Great for consumers! Just like the entry of Bharti. I don't care where my sugar comes from. Globalisation/Capitalism! Local sugar firms should step up their game or it will be bad for them come 2012
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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