@Pastor M - good point. In fact this should be among the topics under "Thinkers' Section"

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...aspx?g=posts&t=8579

Let me however share my two pesetas...

1 - According to a recent survey (I can google and find the source if needed), M-Pesa agencies only become SUSTAINABLE in certain conditions (e.g. few other outlets nearby, income of population in the locality, economic activities, etc etc). Thus this study outlined certain prerequisites for a sustainable M-Pesa operation. Old school SK/Wazua members will recall there were frequent posts and enquiries on how to become an M-Pesa agent - there was a lot of clamour and indeed it was profitable to operate an agency .....until they became so pervasive. I'm sure many of us have gone to an agent and found issues to do with floats (red flag!!!!). Anyway, just like Simu ya Jamii operators, I think its time to evolve M-Pesa agents in order to retain them. Which will lead me to my next point.

So in summary, Not all M-Pesa agents break even these days, they do not get enough transactions. e.g. In 2007 if you were competing with x agents in a 1km square area, you could make a profit...in 2010 if you compete with 3x agents, then the math is different. Let me remind all abt the Simu ya Jamii thing - when SCOM introduced 20 and 10 scratch cards...the death knell was sounded for Simu ya Jamii operators...If I wanted to make a 1 minute call but only had 10 bob so could not top up with 50 , I'd go to a Simu ya Jamii outlet....but after the 20 and 10 cards, I as a subscriber, would find it more convenient to buy a 10/230 bob card....exit Simu ya Jamii (some operators still have not re-couped money spent on the device and we no longer hear of Adtel)

So, SOME (or many) M-Pesa agents are becoming rather redundant. Especially those with low cash flow. The big players like Uchumi, Pharmacies, etc may remain relevant. So, what to do?

2 - Still holding in mind that some (or many) M-Pesa agents are going the way of the dinosaurs - and may opt to defect to Zap since its not highly penetrated yet, SCOM needed to do something. So lets hold that thought....

3 - Think of your typical non-personal M-Pesa transactions - paying for an airline ticket, paying a power bill, paying for a lorry of potatoes etc....now think of the Equity branch network which is already so pervasive.

PRIOR to M-Kesho, as a bar owner, potato broker, airline, power company, one would have to A) DRAW cash from an M-Pesa dealer B) Deposit the money or pay a supplier....CASH needed.

AFTER M-Kesho - people cited above just FORWARD the credit to a bank account. In essence all businesses, from KQ, KPLC to the SMEs to the SMMEs will find it beneficial to forward payments made through M-Pesa to their banks DIRECT. No cash needed. Thus win for Equity - corporate accounts. Win for SCOM - transaction costs.

For the mwananchi who has an M-Kesho account for every day stuff (fees, help out a friend, send to relatives) it also makes sense to have such an account...DIRECTLY link your Equity account and your ability to make transactions. No need to be told "hakuna float" - you are YOUR OWN FLOAT. Do what you will! Not just airtime top up and mobile balance inquiry...pay fees, bail out Jack, pay your tab at Njuguna's etc.

In the near term it may stimulate SOME business for M-Pesa agents, but there will be a shakedown and some will be killed and others enhanced as Equity FOSAs.

My two pesetas...I think the trees have not been seen for the forest yet.

That is a lot of food for thought. I think this argument has always been said on wazua but has never been articulated as you have.
The limit to MPESA going the commerce as you alluded and the e-commerce that you also alluded is the myopia, or fear, or whatever is holding safaricom back from opening up the platform to other players.
Mpesa has huge potential from what is already it can and should be the our way of pre-paid debit card. and with banks now entering the foray it can also be a postpaid platform from which to pay bills.
Dealing with cash has a high cost for alot of businesses and with the high mpesa penetration comapared to credit or debit cards this is the ideal form of moving the economy from a cash base to a credit based.