By the way I've noticed its been raining all over kenya...

I know this won't be good for cane output and Mumias as we've seen in H2 2010

@Njunge. Well, I did make a bit of money although some of my shares have not cleared as yet. Nonetheless, I was able to sell close to 14 and buy back at 15% or so cheaper.

As you have pointed out above, approaching the market with preconceived notions is a dangerous game. Seasoned TRADERS go with the market not try to buck it. Now where is the next play?

Mumias is now trading at a price of 12.20 with some support at Kshs 12.05 and 12.00. If these orders are filled, we can expect the price to fall to the Kshs 11 range. I reluctantly sold off shares purchased last Monday at 12.60+ for a relatively small profit of 33 cts per share. *NB* I have negotiated my commission down.

I am not too sure whether I will even break even on the 11.80 shares as they will only clear tomorrow, but perhaps I will hold onto those. I will watch how far down it goes and try to re-enter.

As price slumps, at what level are you re-entering?

*Never mind 2012 Comesa rules, foodstuffs will always sell, one way or another, as long as management is sound, which is the case with Mumias.

Mumias has to reclaim the 13.50 - 14/- range and remain steady over this level for a week at least to confirm that the sell pressure is contained. Otherwise, the 11.75 low last week will be broken in coming weeks.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, if NSE doesn't see some serious smart money buy volumes this month, I expect sideways action to persist with 5000 being the 2010 year resistance.
Finally, the health of the global stocks is still bearish. A major selloff in US or Japan or Europe, will just increase the downside risks. These markets at the moment are experiencing a relief rally which is unsustainable with their current economical situation. Sept - Nov period should determine how the year closes. I'm learning on bearish closure unless global stimulus version 2.0 is unleashed to boost these economies in the short term. As for long term, global stocks are very bearish all the way past 2013.