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Safcom on a dive, whats going on?
Rank: Member Joined: 12/3/2008 Posts: 113
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This is the morst disappointing counter in the nse.hata afadhali kq and kenya-re.i bailed out after the superb results could not ensue a rally.i had bought at ipo.too many shares in the wrong hands.why stick with it when there is money to be made in dtb,cfc and...unga
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:hisah, Safaricom hit a low of 4.85 today, fairly below your 5 bob target. Still thinking of getting in? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:hisah, Safaricom hit a low of 4.85 today, fairly below your 5 bob target. Still thinking of getting in? 5 bob or below, the better. But 4.85 doesn't have legs for a support for this falling knife  4.40 - 4.50 is now a better entry point for the much needed short term bounce to spew out hopeful trapped dividend buyers. If this doesn't hold (likely after sept 2nd book closure) then 3.50 - 3.80 is the most likely support. But catching a falling knife is dangerous to your health while trying to play a short term reverse trend
If it can reach the 3/- 'call rate levels' the better for long term than short term re-entry. In Nov the 1H 2010 revenues will reflect this upfront price war haircut. By May 2011 results, the dividend will be lowered on reduced profits. Unless scom can pulloff a miracle with 100% data revenues to counter the crimped voice revenues. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mwanafunzi wrote:This is the morst disappointing counter in the nse.hata afadhali kq and kenya-re.i bailed out after the superb results could not ensue a rally.i had bought at ipo.too many shares in the wrong hands.why stick with it when there is money to be made in dtb,cfc and...unga @ student, Cfc and dtb are fully priced. Remember dtb's 107% growth in earnings was not driven by core business. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=ProverB]two stories worth considering regarding technical analysis for Safaricom http://www.businessdaily.../-/vigtrqz/-/index.html
http://www.businessdaily...0/-/ul6b1f/-/index.html[/quote] Have u wondered how a stock rallies after rating agencies offer downgrades and vice versa 'Fearful when all are greedy and greedy when all are fearful' - Peculiar market psychology. Rating agencies have nothing to lose even if they get their calls wrong But they rarely get their calls wrong Maybe they're selling when upgrading and buying when downgrading
My main concern is the global equities picture. Very bearish to say the least. The next selloff will be bigger than the sept 2008 - march 2009 carnage. After a downgrade of the US GDP estimate on Friday, the US fed bank is talking stimulus. Same language in japan. Europe & china cutting back (most sensible, but eurozone national defaults very likely including UK, japan & US). Well the global stimulus of 2009 failed to bring global recovery. So will another stimulus work? No it wont. In which case I expect expensive food and a war somewhere to reset this huge global debt burgen in the very near future.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Wa_ithaka wrote:Interestingly Safcom might even do the 20% drop I mentioned today. Tutangia 2nd Republic at 4.60.
Aly "get rich, or die trying" Khan also Safcom biggest cheerleader has been v quite about it Depends on whether Aly is longterm or short term. There was a KISS 100 investor brief he held in 2008/2009 (not sure of the date) with Mutoko when scom was diving since the IPO listing stating it's a long term buy with great potential esp on mpesa & internet. Since he's a money guy maybe he sees scom in future morphing into a bank. And having worked with those international bankers, he could privvy to something.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@Bwana Hisah - True but in the last financial mess there was a time lag between what was happening in the eurozone and US and the African markets. The Kenyan market got a double beating due to pev. It is difficult to say when we expect the impact on our market
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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PKoli wrote:@Bwana Hisah - True but in the last financial mess there was a time lag between what was happening in the eurozone and US and the African markets. The Kenyan market got a double beating due to pev. It is difficult to say when we expect the impact on our market Who picked the lows of most markets including NSE? Was NSE rebound then coz of local fund mgrs, local institutional investors, you & me, treasury etc? How interesting most markets rebounded from March 2009 lows. Quite robotic... So, who had the trillions of stimulus $ first KE econ is better placed now, but a $ run will spook any economy in the ensuing chaos aka credit crunch aka export/import clogdown. Where will treasury get more $ to settle the import bill? Most nations will be faced with that dilemma. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 7/20/2010 Posts: 37 Location: Nairobi
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The drop in the price of calling charges might to many seem as the final nail on safcoms grave, but be weary of the exaggeration of the kings death.
As the price of safaricom drops there has been an increased entry by "foreign" investors who have looked at the fundamentals of the company and know that it is a good fundamental investment.
I have been looking at the statistics on the Kenyan mobile market and it is clear that a price war is likely to affect the new entrants than the incumbent. Total subscribers 19.7 million, Safaricom subscribers 15.9 million of which 11.8 million are registered with MPesa.
Forget what some guy in the UK is saying about Safaricom, they are the same ones who recommended that foreign investors should exit due to the expected downturn as a result of expected violence during the referendum.
Learn to make your own decisions based on your understanding and knowledge of a market. Dumping safaricom because of the price drop is like dumping breweries because you saw a guy get drunk on a beer and fall into a ditch.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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Zain did only what it had to do...safcom dominance was growing from strength to strength...if this had continued the other operators would hav bn out of bsn b4 long.
>This reality was manifested in the low and declining subscriber numbers of the competition.
>The zain move could b suicidal but I think it gives them a fighting chance...Infact I think its a winner..they just need to have an exceptional low cost base and sufficient capital to last them through the next 2-3yrs because thats when the battle will b won...
>Safcom has already blundered by failin to realise the significance of zains move...rather than give a comprehensive counter offer, they hav come up with a discriminative promotion.Zains move is akin to the per second or per minute wars of safcom and zains predecessor kencell.We all know who won that..at a great loss and strategic disadvantage to who...
>That said safcom dominance cant b wished away...they can still make their billions but not as easily as in the past they need to hav a strategic shift..For instance they need to hav a look at their cost base,I think its too high and need to cut it down....Otherwise they are headed for doom together with their shareholders.
>Voice revenue cant b wished away its the mainstay of safcom. other revenue streams might b growin but safcom cant do without voice revenue..thats why they constantly remind us of their subscriber numbers...
I was once a diehard safcom customer but with their latest disappointing counter strategy hav decided to grudgingly shift to Zain....
SAFCOM WAKE UP..it still not to late..Hope the incoming CEO can see that its no longer business as usual...they need to regain the initiative..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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I saw a piece in aljazeera on how pipes (telecommunication companies with fibre optic infrastructure) are in the red to the tune of -$140b brought about by intensive capital expenditure on infrastructure and system upgrades where as the swipes ( Google, Microsoft,apple) who normally depend on this infrastructure have $140b laying in their the bank accounts. Because of this mismatch, there is lobbying for the swipes to chip in on the infrastructural expenditure. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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robertyawe wrote:The drop in the price of calling charges might to many seem as the final nail on safcoms grave, but be weary of the exaggeration of the kings death.
As the price of safaricom drops there has been an increased entry by "foreign" investors who have looked at the fundamentals of the company and know that it is a good fundamental investment.
I have been looking at the statistics on the Kenyan mobile market and it is clear that a price war is likely to affect the new entrants than the incumbent. Total subscribers 19.7 million, Safaricom subscribers 15.9 million of which 11.8 million are registered with MPesa.
Forget what some guy in the UK is saying about Safaricom, they are the same ones who recommended that foreign investors should exit due to the expected downturn as a result of expected violence during the referendum.
Learn to make your own decisions based on your understanding and knowledge of a market. Dumping safaricom because of the price drop is like dumping breweries because you saw a guy get drunk on a beer and fall into a ditch. I've noticed this all the way since March 2009. It dives and the foreigners pile it up in spades. Kenyans are selling their crown firm to outsiders without question? Today 77% of the buy side was foreigners, no selling. And I expect this trend to continue all the way to 3/- (if we can only get there  for another long term re-entry) $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:robertyawe wrote:The drop in the price of calling charges might to many seem as the final nail on safcoms grave, but be weary of the exaggeration of the kings death.
As the price of safaricom drops there has been an increased entry by "foreign" investors who have looked at the fundamentals of the company and know that it is a good fundamental investment.
I have been looking at the statistics on the Kenyan mobile market and it is clear that a price war is likely to affect the new entrants than the incumbent. Total subscribers 19.7 million, Safaricom subscribers 15.9 million of which 11.8 million are registered with MPesa.
Forget what some guy in the UK is saying about Safaricom, they are the same ones who recommended that foreign investors should exit due to the expected downturn as a result of expected violence during the referendum.
Learn to make your own decisions based on your understanding and knowledge of a market. Dumping safaricom because of the price drop is like dumping breweries because you saw a guy get drunk on a beer and fall into a ditch. I've noticed this all the way since March 2009. It dives and the foreigners pile it up in spades. Kenyans are selling their crown firm to outsiders without question? Today 77% of the buy side was foreigners, no selling. And I expect this trend to continue all the way to 3/- (if we can only get there for another long term re-entry) @hisah my Eyes are wide open to watch the ex div action and my money is prepared for anything below 3.80... Because its currently trading at its target price which it cant hold ex div IMHO Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Safcom on a dive, whats going on?
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