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cnn
#1 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:14:38 AM
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Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,621
Is there material announcement? All the supply up to 100 bob gone.I hope this is a comfirmation of the tea story.
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Wa_ithaka
#2 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:23:09 AM
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Joined: 1/7/2010
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cnn-are you an investor?
Anyway, check today's daily nation or visit the NSE website for the half year results
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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guru267
#3 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:24:37 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
Is there material announcement? All the supply up to 100 bob gone.I hope this is a comfirmation of the tea story.

This counter is cheap by VERY many metrics and i'm valuing it at 120bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Horton
#4 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:26:44 AM
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Joined: 8/30/2007
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Location: Nairobi
They jes released their HY. Eps 4.22. Up from a miniscule 0.26 No divi...


http://www.nse.co.ke/new...ements/Kakuzi%202010.pdf
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Horton
#5 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:29:58 AM
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And we are back down to 80 bob. @guru, I kinda find valuing agri companies as quite difficult. No consistencies. Over reliant on mother nature, and pretty cyclical. How did u come up on 120? Was it NAV?
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Wa_ithaka
#6 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:44:54 AM
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If you look at the numbers, revenue was only up 25%. The going forward statement is also downbeat.

Uza
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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cnn
#7 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:56:43 AM
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Wa_ithaka wrote:
cnn-are you an investor?


What do you think?.

I have become used to tea companies downplaying good expectations going forward.Not bad results,i am staying put.
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The Merchant
#8 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 12:07:46 PM
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Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Think
Horton wrote:
And we are back down to 80 bob. @guru, I kinda find valuing agri companies as quite difficult. No consistencies. Over reliant on mother nature, and pretty cyclical. How did u come up on 120? Was it NAV?

Now at 83.50 Think Think
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Gordon Gekko
#9 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 2:39:09 PM
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Joined: 5/27/2008
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This portends well for Sasini? I assume they are correlated and I'm big into Sasini.
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Horton
#10 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 3:14:50 PM
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Gordon Gekko wrote:
This portends well for Sasini? I assume they are correlated and I'm big into Sasini.



Yeah agrics should have a bumper year. Shouldn't make a diff to my agric, rea v. LolSad
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VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 10:19:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,215
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
And we are back down to 80 bob. @guru, I kinda find valuing agri companies as quite difficult. No consistencies. Over reliant on mother nature, and pretty cyclical. How did u come up on 120? Was it NAV?
Well, that is what farming is all about... Kwani, u think everything goes up in a straight line?

Those firms who show 'consistency' often fudge numbers... maybe as a reaction to shareholders...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Horton
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 10:26:07 PM
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VVS, ur a Buffett fan, you should know what I'm talking about.....the business should be both predictable and consistent. That obviously doesn't mean straight line.....but thanks.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:47:56 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
Agriculture Insurance www.businessdailyafrica....30/-/m06mj3/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, August 27, 2010 1:08:24 AM
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Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VVS, ur a Buffett fan, you should know what I'm talking about.....the business should be both predictable and consistent. That obviously doesn't mean straight line.....but thanks.
No, no, no...

Buffett does NOT necessarily favour predictability... He just wants to be compensated for the certainty...

He says that he does not mind LUMPY returns (not straight-line) as long as the OVERALL return is above average... Coz Buffett is willing to wait. In my case, these are AGRICULTURALS unless there is a fundamental shift e.g. giddy + baba decide to raze all forests & grab farms claiming ancestral right!

BH's largest business is INSURANCE which is for the most part 'unpredictable'...

Certainty: A matatu will hit your car. Guaranteed!
Unpredictability: When? Leo? Kesho? Kesho Kutwa? 2011? 2012? 2030?

So BH will 'provide' for the inevitability/certainty but when makwere becomes transport minister... the chances will increase...

So BH (insurance) wants a premium that reflects the certainty coupled with actuarial tables or smarts...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Friday, August 27, 2010 1:12:13 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@Horton - BTW, the lack of 'consistent' earnings e.g. EABL, BAT is probably why the Agricultural Stocks sell at a lower PER (when times are good) than comparable financials, etc...

I like Kakuzi coz it has decent farms & potential land for 'other' development... Just a matter of time...

Some group bought Eagaads... I think they bought it for the huge farm/land (in Ruiru) rather than the coffee...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Horton
#16 Posted : Friday, August 27, 2010 3:14:33 PM
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I beg to differ there. Insurance risks can be predicted with a good level of accuracy. Before u go ballistic, I'm sure you know the risk model geico uses and that their combines ratio has been within a pretty close figure to their estimates. I remeber reading an annual report of BRK and Warren did say that he wouldn't invest in abusiness that is reliant on factors that are out of anyones control, I'm sorry i can't quote which year because this would be one heck
Of a task as u know. If u look at BRKs holdings, not one is an agric company. Only a farm Implements company. Even locally, companies like jub have done well with The risk model.
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VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Friday, August 27, 2010 3:25:46 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@Horton - Just an FYI... WB's son has (or had) a farm... Neither here nor there...

I do not know what you are talking of re: GEICO 'predictions'...
GEICO selects its customers so they do discriminate there

GEICO has had years of ups & downs BUT ultimately, WB likes the cheap float...

Lakini, for the CAT-Insurance + specialized insurance - the huge deals/underwriting they do - the Ajit Jain run subsidiary does the risk analysis... When BH writes Hurricane Insurance, WB said it is a matter of When not If... [Same for Nuclear Bomb Insurance which can only be adequately covered by US Govt]

If an insurer is optimistic in its reserving, reported earnings will be overstated, and years may pass before true loss costs are revealed (a form of self-deception that nearly destroyed GEICO in the early 1970s). 2004 BH Letter to Shareholders
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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youcan'tstopusnow
#18 Posted : Sunday, August 29, 2010 8:57:59 AM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Little known British firm behind Kakuzi www.nation.co.ke/busines...1006/998802/-/tpd1giz/-/
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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The Merchant
#19 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 11:30:29 PM
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Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Going forward gentlemen. Now at 81/-. Does not seem to have moved much I must say.
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guru267
#20 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 11:47:42 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
The Merchant wrote:
Going forward gentlemen. Now at 81/-. Does not seem to have moved much I must say.


@the merchant i think you mean 87.. and will get a move on once the profit takers who bought at 34 are finished selling....

so buy now!!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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