I think celebrations about Zain winning this one are premature.

For Zain to gain market leadership as their MD says, they have to be ready to sustain this price war for at least one year. Can they? I doubt it.

Remember:

1. The Kuwaiti's, with their infinite petro-dollar funded war chest failed.

2. Bharti is already in trouble back home and have practically admitted that the low margin 'minute-factory' model has run its course in India.

3. Safaricom is yet to utilize the full range of tools it has in its arsenal namely: a) the patriotism card a la EABL b) the fact that with over 12 million subscribers they can play the high volumes low margin game better than an upstart c) hostile advertising, especially with Zain about to re-brand, yet again! d) their deep pockets and the fact they have only one market to worry about

4. Any new subscribers that Zain attracts from Safaricom are likely to be low spenders (where the greater motive for moving is cost). This is the reason Safaricom is scrambling to protect its high value post paid customers and the high spending prepaid who are influenced more by value/convenience etc than price. The low spending clients who are jumping ship may be good for bragging rights. But this is not the kind of clientele you can rely on to build a high margin data business, many of them can't afford data - not to mention Safaricom is ahead on that front too.

What would I do different if I was Zain? I would borrow a leaf from the mother company and forget voice in Kenya - there is little new money in it. Attack Safaricom on the data front for that is where the money and the untapped market is. If Zain could do a game changer in Data - say, by forcing ISP's to lower their costs to less obscene levels, they would earn my respect and my custom for both data and voice.

My 3 bob worth.

Wakanyugi, I didnt read the rest of your analysis and paralysis .I just wonder why any mobile tel consumer would be complaining when charges go down unless you have vested interest in the rival company making immoral profits by overcharging poor mortals.

@vin
Kuishi kwingi ni kuona mengi.

Experience is the best teacher. I have experienced and learnt much.

@Guru.
Common sense.
Swaleh has no patent for story telling, why the child cry?. I have seen much under the sun, seat under my table for basic lessons.
Penye wazee hapaharibiki neno

Man, I used to hate swa lessons in high school!!

I hope investors were clever enough to sell...